Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’ve lost complete faith with ECM it is having a diabolical year, yesterday it was showing a fabulous summer pattern with intense ridging now we can’t shake off a low to south, and when it does go, along comes westerlies..

The UKMO has been little better. Atrocious consistency!

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The UKMO has been little better. Atrocious consistency!

Yes that model is even worse I just hold ECM to higher standard, the model which has been impressing me this year is GFS.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The UKMO has been little better. Atrocious consistency!

Agree, GFS appears to be the most consistent with GEM? 
 

ECM appears to have tanked somewhat since it’s last ‘upgrade’ 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192 - T240.  

We don’t want cluster 1!  The others look to build a decent ridge east, the third one looks classic UK summer weather.  

[Frosty.]

I think I must be looking at different charts to others?? ..., tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean, especially in the mid / longer term screams summery!!!

 

[damianslaw]

As others have commented models seem to be struggling to pinpoint the finer details recently, all because we have a rather slow moving messy picture, with a weak trough feature playing fiddle with the UK, not sure what it wants to do. Not too surprising the models appear to have keep playing catch up with small scale features.

The theme short term is for the weak trough to eventually be squeezed away by a building ridge out of the azores which is forecast to move to our NE. As we enter July the question is whether heights stay strong to the NE and fend off the atlantic or might the trough reorientate and attack again, as suggested by the ECM with heights lowering to the SW. I'll sit this one out for now..

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm mean tonight from start to finish!!dunno what fixation the op has with that low in the atlantic between 192 and 216 hours!!expect it to drop that in the next couple of runs if the mean is on the ball!!looks like perfect hot summer weather on that!!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm mean tonight from start to finish!!dunno what fixation the op has with that low in the atlantic between 192 and 216 hours!!expect it to drop that in the next couple of runs if the mean is on the ball!!looks like perfect hot summer weather on that!!

A bit of a simplistic view of it unfortunately, look at the clusters I posted earlier, cluster 1 has the low right through, and has 22/51 members.  The mean is skewed by the other clusters which look very good.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

A bit of a simplistic view of it unfortunately, look at the clusters I posted earlier, cluster 1 has the low right through, and has 22/51 members.  The mean is skewed by the other clusters which look very good.

Thats nearly half so that aint good news!lets hope it changes on the 00z!!!

[mushymanrob]

well they dont come much better than this...

[JayAlmeida]

Evening all,

Would like to just say hi as I've just joined the forum after being a long time lurker and weather fanatic. The model output has been crazy the last few days with the GFS finally coming around to the ECM's way of thinking today just as the ECM changes its mind again. It was so adamant about HP way Into next week whilst the GFS was throwing up about four different scenarios per day cant wait to see what happens over the next few days.

Edited June 23, 2021 by JayAlmeida
Missing word

[sheikhy]

35 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well they dont come much better than this...

Got the latest 8-14 dayer mate?!!

[mushymanrob]

23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Got the latest 8-14 dayer mate?!!

Similar, but as usual, not as strong as this chart,.

Its high pressure domination all the way,

 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run to T192:

You can see the problems the models are wrestling with here quite clearly.  That second cut off low, of the two Ive spoken about before, the one near us, is a total conundrum.  It is fixed at the end on this run by high pressure ridging over the top of it, but the uncertainty with this is massive.  FI about T96 at the moment.  

[mb018538]

GFS this morning is utter dross. Very wet through to the middle of next week too:

GEM is pretty good eventually, not before it’s soaking wet though 

UKMO good for the northern half of the uk, south hold on to the trough and rain until the middle of the week again though. Could be a very wet few days about to hit….the strong high pressure signal after doesn’t look quite as dominant as it did a day or two ago either. Longer to build in and quicker to depart!

[mb018538]

Op                                                             Mean


The mean trough position on the GFS ensemble for Tuesday AM is slightly further south into France, which would be better for the UK

[Man With Beard]

The coming week, very likely, will be the opposite of many a summer week in the UK with conditions more settled and (probably) warmer the further north and west one travels. With winds more easterly than westerly, areas to the west of high ground e.g. Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow up to the Isle of Skye could see very good temperatures.

Further south, it's much more uncertain but I don't foresee the non stop dross of last weekend repeating. The UK trough has been avoided, and the trough initially goes into the Bay of Biscay. Historically, lows in this position have often acted as a heat pump for the UK. As it stands, the low lingers a little too close to the south to keep the trouble away, and therefore spells of rain/thundery/convection at times are forecast. I'm not sure how set in stone that is though. We've often seen that when models correct closer to T0, they might correct a low pressure further away from a high pressure cell, or further in the direction of travel from a high. The Biscay low remains only 100 or 200 miles from completely clearing the south coast. Not inconceivable yet, then, that the whole of the UK will enjoy a largely hot and sunny week with just occasional thundery interruptions in the southern half.  However, for the south at the moment, it's not quite there, and currently projected to stack up the rainfall totals once again.

[mb018538]

ECM is even worse. Trough drifts back up over the UK through the week and just leaves heavy rain and showers all over the place. Settled spell? Don’t count on it….

[sheikhy]

Not the best output this morning!!!its cruel how one little pesky shortwave can ruin it all for us!!!its happened before and it will most certainly happen again!!to add the ecm looks like its heading atlantic driven again from 192 hours onwards?!!

[Methuselah]

One look at this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles has told me I'd better stick with JH's/mushy's anomalies. I guess the only consolation is that it never looks like being too cold; the operational (T850s mostly between +3 and +6C) even becomes a cold outlier on two or three days, late on?

     

Edited June 24, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

Well....one of these is going to be very wrong!

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well....one of these is going to be very wrong!

Well we know which one will be wrong! The one showing the fine and settled conditions…..

Again model disparity really leads to settled, fine and warm conditions. Given where we were at mid month summers having a shocking second half to the month down here.

[mb018538]

The mean isn't much better, so that bloody trough might be sticking around right through next week too and ruin things. Here's the mean chart for next Thursday, showing it influencing much of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland should be ok:



It'll be such a shame when a few days ago we were seeing charts like this for mid next week.



Instead of a strong high building over the top of the low (with the low staying across the channel) it looks like it'll probably end up with the low over some of the UK, and the high just effecting northern areas for a few days before it starts to dissipate:

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The mean isn't much better, so that bloody trough might be sticking around right through next week too and ruin things. Here's the mean chart for next Thursday, showing it influencing much of England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland should be ok:



It'll be such a shame when a few days ago we were seeing charts like this for mid next week.



Instead of a strong high building over the top of the low (with the low staying across the channel) it looks like it'll probably end up with the low over some of the UK, and the high just effecting northern areas for a few days before it starts to dissipate:

All fair points, mb -- so long as the prediction is correct? But, if it is, there's always a silver lining: sea breezes 'should' keep many coastal areas free of any showers, and it's nae warm/humid enough for sea mist to be too much of a problem?

[mb018538]

Good summary of the state of play here from Matt. Everything has ground to a halt (MJO) - the Pacific is dead, convection is very active over Africa though (far left and far right of VP anom chart) so expect some big easterly waves and potential hurricane development (2 areas of interest currently)



Until the MJO starts to move through July then we might not see too much settled weather in our neck of the woods. One to keep an eye on.