Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z T240 mean and spread:

Rising pressure, but the spread is interesting there is uncertainty about the fate of the cut off low out west, but otherwise is likely due to a jet stream pushing north of the UK.  At that timescale, probably a NW/SE split, but could be on the way to something more settled overall.  

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I wouldn't - it's happened loads of times.

It would be very rare for all the major forecasters to get it this wrong so close to the event.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run going warm and settled at T192:

I think this is starting to get resolved now.  Settled, warm, weather will prevail, and this unsettled spell will end.  Seen it enough on the main model runs and ensembles to suggest that the general direction is towards a fine settled summery start to July.  

[Djdazzle]

6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It would be very rare for all the major forecasters to get it this wrong so close to the event.

It would - but caution is advised!

[northwestsnow]

Superb GFS 0Z ...lots of warm settled weather incoming and seemingly following yesterday's fabulous EC 12z.

Its been a very decent June up here  ,and momentum seems to be gathering for a decent start to July too.

UKMO non to shabby either  

 

Edited June 23, 2021 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

GEM is a bit of a disaster over the next week in the central/southern half of the UK - 2 to 4 inches of rain quite widely:



GFS not quite so apocalyptic, rain concentrated in the S/SW:



UKMO looks wet until we see an improvement by the middle of next week:


As @northwestsnow alludes to above, the potential is certainly now there after this pesky feature disappears for a fine spell of weather thereafter:

[Guest]

Goodness me, could be another 0 out of 10 weekend. Models really sticking it to south this morning. Not interested in the apparent improvement given it’s a week away and model consistency has been so poor. Need to see those improvements inside 96hrs IMO as with any high building in from the west there’s always a chance a currently unmodelled trough can drop down and disrupt things (as this coming weekend has shown again) 

[mb018538]

ECM much better on Sunday - the low is centred about 100 miles further SW than the GEM for example, and is less organised.

As such, the heavy rain bands shown moving across the UK on the GEM (below) are instead just a few showers concentrated in the S/SW corner closest to the low:




 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks warm and thundery to me ..

 

Certainly Exeter now hinting at warm to hot conditions in their latest update..

 

[Wimbledon88]

Proper Sunday soaking on way for the south. Probably Saturday too but Sunday looks a proper washout. Quite unusual for this time of the year which in itself is interesting. Little prospect of any improvement till late next week according to BBC /METEO last night. 

[mb018538]

Well ECM ends up slightly better in the shorter term, but worse in the 8-10 day period. Think I'd prefer any of the other model runs after day 7 than the ECM this morning. Swings and roundabouts, and more runs needed!

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Proper Sunday soaking on way for the south. Probably Saturday too but Sunday looks a proper washout. Quite unusual for this time of the year which in itself is interesting. Little prospect of any improvement till late next week according to BBC /METEO last night. 

We’ve already had two complete washouts in the past 6 days, this weekend looks dire again. 

Edited June 23, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

I must say, this morning's GFS 00Z looks pretty good: 

    

    

    

A week of coolish, cloudy, dampish weather, does not define an entire summer?  

[minus10]

58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks warm and thundery to me ..

 

Certainly Exeter now hinting at warm to hot conditions in their latest update..

 

Yes some pretty hot air there that the ecm0z is hinting at could be tapped into in 5 to 7 days. Plenty of fireworks i would imagine if this came off

in the meantime its exactly where this weekend trough is going to end up...?

[Methuselah]

And here are the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles; mean, operational and control runs all in the same ballpark: 

    

Edited June 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

A rather warm looking ECM ensemble mean too:

Edited June 23, 2021 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

Pretty darn good ecm mean and i will take the op for now as well please!!mucy drier early on as well!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly its much better today here than recently. Secondly it looks a tad more unsettled through the Weekend with the increasing threat of showers which could get severe at times,so you storm chasers may be looking good! It looks to be remaining on the warm and humid side towards the South also. I feel things will begin to settle down beyond this also, so very warm spells could become increasingly likely as we move forward! Just noticed some are mentioning the Exter update favours very warm conditions moving forward also!

What could this mean? Plenty of beach Weather,and the risk of Storms galore for some! What's not to like folks...something for everyone.

[mushymanrob]

Anomalies have now picked up on the weekend pesky little shortwave feature , late? yes, and has been mentioned, these mean charts can miss smaller shorter lived features.

But overall its looking promising, as all that shortwave feature does is delay the inevitable building high. Its looking to me like the building high will end up to our East, according to the 8-14 day mean chart.
So a messy weekend, that slowly improves, dries out, brightens up, and by this time next week there should be a lot of very pleasant, fine, summery weather. If the high gets to our East, then its likely to get warmer, even hot..

This sequence to me looks very good!

 

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 06Z looks good too, with oodles of potential; the 'new kid on the block' (aka the stonking heat down in Europe) looks like doing its business! 

    

    

    

Will we see the magic 100F beaten, for the third summer in succession? I wouldn't bet against it! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think an improvement for end of July is on the cards this little trough isnt going to last long - GEM ensembles for my area 850s is pretty much above average and stays there right to the end of the run 

[ChannelThunder]

Enjoying today's output; if that trough at the weekend sinks to the south west like that and turns it hot and thundery, I'll greet it like an old friend

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 06Z looks good too, with oodles of potential; the 'new kid on the block' (aka the stonking heat down in Europe) looks like doing its business! 

    

    

    

Will we see the magic 100F beaten, for the third summer in succession? I wouldn't bet against it! 

Couldn’t care less. As long as it feels warm on my skin. Mid twenties always good enough for me

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles:      

                                                                                                                  

[Methuselah]

Spot the snot!