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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Well this is most unhelpful! The Big 4 at 144 hours, all looking different:

image.thumb.png.fb6264be2d397f113d13ee83e0334048.pngimage.thumb.png.b6f092ce332063dfc8e1a7edba765cda.pngimage.thumb.png.d6bdbf71452357865331864e1cf066b8.pngimage.thumb.png.f41781cb2837f1ac0559fb0806edb2d6.png

ECM develops into quite a nice run though. West based high, so the best conditions tending to best west of the UK/Ireland, while cooler air feeds down the eastern half. Eastern coastal areas could suffer with very cool temps in this set up stuck in the low to mid teens:

image.thumb.png.875fa82247261d0456bdb91c5c7feec6.pngimage.thumb.png.f077f672a4d90a8cee600c17e67a0d84.pngimage.thumb.png.5ed5083bf175f0a7e6838727a4a6e76a.pngimage.thumb.png.015dceb1a16d5427d3fbb79279e3ba23.png
 

So you're saying me driving 6 hrs from the west of Scotland to the Cambridge area for a staycation, thinking i'd get better weather, will be a waste of time......well blow me over 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, bomdabass said:

So you're saying me driving 6 hrs from the west of Scotland to the Cambridge area for a staycation, thinking i'd get better weather, will be a waste of time......well blow me over 

It does happen on occasion!  Lots at play still here. Until that trough gets pinned down anywhere could end up with anything!

ECM Ensembles have gone all M People this morning - Movin' on up:

image.thumb.png.77ed6da54af51b289f8ff89ebd7e6e6e.png


Top two ECM clusters look reasonable, the 3rd one looks disappointing with a regressed high and low pressure dominating:

image.thumb.png.5ec087569460ad6215eb47a8c2f8dfe3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
23 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Right folks its a bit Meh at present, the sun hardly made and appearance here since last Wednesday! And the week ahead is shall we say usable....But I feel things should start to improve towards the weekend and more so into next week. This mornings ECM is a peach and it's also backed up by the mean..Forget what GFS shows its clueless...running 4 times a day make it a big show-off!! Ohhhh....look at me I run more than any other model

A little patience required good people, it won't be long before we are locked and loaded for another cracking spell...Trust me @Alderc you will be swinging from the palm trees before much longer mate

Have a top week..get ya beers in for tomorrow night...no dramas,no pressure...no problamo...

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-240.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

33gdz0.jpg

I love the optimism of the post.....I hope it works more effectively in summer than it does in winter!! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
51 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I love the optimism of the post.....I hope it works more effectively in summer than it does in winter!!

Cheers Tim...no dramas,when you spend 6 months trying to find a cold snap its sods law you will get one correct in the end.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Too far out but the 06zrun breaks down the low more effectively than the 00z run, shows the variance in models and that's why I hold out hope for this low to breakdown rather quickly but not great for those surface storm lovers if this were to come off.

00

image.thumb.png.09743266e2921ef2ec79d6b46faf1b2d.pngimage.thumb.png.215352db347c80d2477452d9f0943724.png

06

image.thumb.png.d4da61b21821629314987175718657ca.pngimage.thumb.png.fed4fd21900ec769a34952299cdf1d1f.png

Netweather's GFS builds up the high pressure earlier, nothing in there again for those storm lovers but who doesn't love a good bit of sunshine whilst the temperature isn't too hot.

image.thumb.png.ff28211d4156870a65b13f3ffcc350bc.pngimage.thumb.png.8d99e7055ad47be03509205438d4e860.png

Trying to be happy about the 06z run but a lot of boring stuff happening at the moment which for me is usual in June, still got a couple of months of Summer to go.

Edit

Just seen the apocalypse 

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image.png

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A very strange and difficult setup coming for the models to resolve.

So essentially in a few days we see a trough become cut off west of the Azores which attempts to build an upper ridge above it (hence the northerly solutions) however to complicate matters the models also indicate that a low will become cut-off near the UK. Now on the Euro and GEM this upper lows tracks west and merges (the further west the stronger the retrogression, the further east the more conducive for summer weather) however the GFS never really has that upper low move much (eventually another trough arrives hence the cyclonic solutions).

Models don't like cut off features to begin with so two is very hard to resolve. This is why you get such divergence right now.

Come back in two days is my advise, ignore any run until then.

 

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GFS is just terrible for the weekend and anchors a weak trough over the south for the weekend. Ignore and comE back later and hope for better! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

36850B82-3129-4719-8E0E-58BCD6E1E0BE.thumb.png.2f09f2aa927056f7f978913d2a967c32.png8E206C81-739F-49C4-BF88-EDEE95C1B2FC.thumb.png.7fec7eb7cda9c06d8c833325de273ba0.png
 

12s runs still can’t agree on the trough position at day 4

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z's shaping up nicely, for the weekend . . . still much uncertainty, however:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

LF9C5A5F3-8724-4F64-98AE-CADAB362BF07.thumb.png.b9d9fdf2a986f13a149cb0f1ba138c7e.png

0B05F29D-0031-4773-954B-D029ABE446D7.thumb.png.dabb0cbf67b1baefb5473c213de22647.png

Trough close by giving a wet weekend for many areas.

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 12Z's shaping up nicely, for the weekend . . . still much uncertainty, however:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Eh! Surface conditions are wet and cloudy, although milder than this week! In reality it’s poor, even a weak Trough will lead to poor conditions…..
 

D090BE10-F141-43FF-BFBA-8E2A0B0356A9.thumb.png.5dbf3651b89c69e0fedc8a6526aa7028.png

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Going to be a long week for the amateur forecaster! There's no sign yet of the models getting a handle on this cut-off low for the weekend, different solutions every run on GFS especially and also UKMO/ECM, and all scenarios from heatwave to washout still possible! 

Middle ground, not even sure what that would be in this scenario.

Edited by Man Without Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
6 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Going to be a long week for the amateur forecaster! There's no sign yet of the models getting a handle on this cut-off low for the weekend, different solutions every run on GFS especially and also UKMO/ECM, and all scenarios from heatwave to washout still possible! 

Middle ground, not even sure what that would be in this scenario.

I’m gonna go with trough dominated. It usually wins out in the kind of situation, low of sod and all that.

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12 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Going to be a long week for the amateur forecaster! There's no sign yet of the models getting a handle on this cut-off low for the weekend, different solutions every run on GFS especially and also UKMO/ECM, and all scenarios from heatwave to washout still possible! 

Middle ground, not even sure what that would be in this scenario.

Its a bit of mess isn't it. I'm certainly no technical expert but 20years of following models and I know when weak troughing and high model uncertainty are around in summer a fine spell of whether rarely follows, especially in the short term! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ukmo 12h at day 6 doesn’t look bad?, it’s quite ridgy, certainly better than the Gfs 12z in the same timeframe!..wonder what the ECM will do now?...0z was superb for summer fans!  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.0c66829153999a9e7819a0b16cff8162.png

image.thumb.png.d78d5462aeb2eca0757ac2b8d6f99176.png

UKMO run a million times better than gfs at day 7. One to bank, one to bin!

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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.0c66829153999a9e7819a0b16cff8162.png

image.thumb.png.d78d5462aeb2eca0757ac2b8d6f99176.png

UKMO run a million times better than gfs at day 7. One to bank, one to bin!

Was the complete opposite 24hra ago, almost comical! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.f3ba560ffb3059008ea87e8123be4dab.png
image.thumb.png.e08d4899352d160270b6aa9b35323ec8.png

GEM eventually anchors the low to the sw by Sunday, which advects warm s/se’erlies up from the continent, with temps up to 25-28c. Such slim margins.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.f3ba560ffb3059008ea87e8123be4dab.png
image.thumb.png.e08d4899352d160270b6aa9b35323ec8.png

GEM eventually anchors the low to the sw by Sunday, which advects warm s/se’erlies up from the continent, with temps up to 25-28c. Such slim margins.

I was quite surprised when I saw those temps given modest 850's (11-12C) and quite extensive cloud cover. 

In fact I suspect there will be a lot of grumbling about cloud, both GFS and GEM have parts of the south not seeing the sun for 2, 3, 4 days later this week and into the weekend.  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I would happily take the GEM 12z longer term, it becomes much warmer, there’s some ridging which means some fine sunny conditions but there’s also a chance of thundery activity?...anyway, at least the charts look summery which ticks the right boxes for me!!  

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Can't wait for the first to claim the ECM run out to T144 is good......looks cloudy and potentially wet again for the south not really getting better until Sunday however a negatively tilted high by them I suspect won't offer much protection from the north or north west...

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