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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
On 19/06/2021 at 08:57, Alderc said:

Oh Bore-off why don't you.

Very little to suggest a return to anything warmer IMO 

GFS ensembles

67561470_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n(24).thumb.jpeg.603a5a9e3693198e4f60bd9666a29b7f.jpeg

GEM ensembles

2001370049_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n(6).thumb.jpeg.4908aa33e5c568756a89d31d0af951f8.jpeg

 

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Disappointing as we enter into high summer, very few warm ensembles members bar a couple of outliers. Little indication of warmer temps returning anytime soon. 

1712845081_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n22.thumb.jpeg.71d9e37c8eeb84e9bdbbede316603d3a.jpeg

What's your idea of warmer temps?

Those look like a very normal set of ensembles and the GEM ones you posted yesterday were above average. Mean touching 10C at 850hpa level (even on the GEFS mean) could be ~25C at the surface if there's enough sunshine.

But of course you know all that, if you are only looking for abnormal conditions you will mostly be disappointed.

Edited by Evening thunder
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44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Surely the ukmo 12z is wrong tonight?!

image.thumb.png.4cf620462915af58d60e51b8d33e8455.png

Not exactly on form though is it? If it had of been would currently be about 35C in the south east….

But seriously an enormous difference between UKMO and GFS, might as well draw straws to see what next weekend will be like….

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10 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

 

What's your idea of warmer temps?

Those look like a very normal set of ensembles and the GEM ones you posted yesterday were above average. Mean touching 10C at 850hpa level (even on the GEFS mean) could be ~25C at the surface if there's enough sunshine.

Of course if you are only looking for abnormal conditions you will mostly be disappointed.

Well warmer than now, not difficult I know but ideally into the mid 20s at least. Again it gets frustrating this being questioned all the time…..no one in winter posts charts saying ‘ooh 8C im happy with that because it’s average’ they only ever want snow and sub zero temps. Given true Ice days in southern England have got to be at least three or four times as rare as 30C in summer looking for 30C is probably more realistic than looking frigid winter conditions. 
 

But yes under ideal conditions 10C upper can easily lead to 25C, in some cases near 30C the synoptic pattern from earlier and yesterday certainly didn’t support anything like that from what I saw.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Well warmer than now, not difficult I know but ideally into the mid 20s at least. Again it gets frustrating this being questioned all the time…..no one in winter posts charts saying ‘ooh 8C im happy with that because it’s average’ they only ever want snow and sub zero temps. Given true Ice days in southern England have got to be at least three or four times as rare as 30C in summer looking for 30C is probably more realistic than looking frigid winter conditions. 

It would be nice I know, then again in some of the 2007-2012 summers we only had a few days above 25C here.

That's true but its just as bad in winter IMO.. if I joined that party I'd only be happy on about 1 day if lucky in this location lol. I find some interest in other weather, not that I particularly enjoy winter in the UK. I suppose there's more of a defined temperature cut-off which it has to be below, but in summer near average can be nice (at least for me).

Hopefully we get rid of these slow moving systems and if we still end up with a light northerly drift the south coast may be the best area.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This is a very difficult one to predict how the weather will feel even this time next week.  ECM T168:

7E05B1BC-8F33-498B-B0E8-2CA26FCFFEA3.thumb.gif.a76ddcff4905e5b101cdcf6e1c60cf0d.gif

It is those two lows, cut off on this one, and on the GEM earlier but in a different place.  We are looking for a scenario where the right hand one doesn’t end up over the UK and not cut off.  I think this scenario is looking more likely now, though, but it is still a close run thing.  Complicated setup right now.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Think UKMO is wrong in dissolving the low too quickly. ECM isn’t bad as it clears through into the weekend and day 6 onwards is decent enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 12z op eventually turns out pretty good for the majority with summery warmth and high pressure /  ridging returning, especially further south!...so, we have some great signs from the Ukmo, Gem and now the ECM! ☀️....I don’t think there would need to be much adjustment for a nationwide anticyclonic spell!!...you know nothing Jon snow!  
E6CDE3B7-ED80-41B0-8E60-827FEDCFEA03.thumb.gif.6366177883347f2efe0d07c2464a40b6.gif76DCA882-ADFC-42AC-B5F4-A6C8D7CD263F.thumb.gif.d46b8221baa6a6aac5b6eda9fecfe306.gifA410A355-F029-4126-8C4C-89D5D230D64E.thumb.gif.0ff41887b6c4315c51d33571a9fd9efb.gifC9CD07E6-B1CB-4182-83A9-823610411EC9.thumb.gif.1fe9bca4c75d590e64c7b65e79dd37e1.gif 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Shades of June 2019 on ECM D6-D10 as heatwave quality uppers are undercut by north Atlantic surface air.

Still, sunny conditions and mid 20s for most. A very acceptable run considering what could occur under a UK trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Shades of June 2019 on ECM D6-D10 as heatwave quality uppers are undercut by north Atlantic surface air.

Still, sunny conditions and mid 20s for most. A very acceptable run considering what could occur under a UK trough.

Yeah - a good indication of not to use 850s as the only guide for heat. You’ve got them at 17c on the south coast, but highs only in the mid 20s as cooler air cuts over the top. Still - I’d take that in a heartbeat after 4 days without any sun at all here and temps stuck at 15c!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Not the most inspiring of weeks ahead, but far from a washout. Azores high staying fairly robust, but not quite close enough to prevent weak Atlantic incursions moving in from the NW bringing damp cloudy weather at times, more so Wed-Fri. Heaviest rain looks reserved yet again! For the south tomorrow. As we end June, signal the azores high will flex enough muscle to oust away the Atlantic, which would allow for more nationwide settled warm sunny conditions, question is whether it will have enough muscle to settle over the UK and move east, or just linger to our west. Either way a pleasant end to the month looks quite probable, but still time for new developments to emerge to scupper that prediction.

For here it is turning into an exceptionally dry June. Keswick has had just 3% of it's normal June average rainfall, last true wet day was nearing 4 weeks ago, we are having May weather in June!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

To add to the above, I've said a few times it's about now we see the summer base state seasonal wavelengths make there presence, meaning we often settle into a summer pattern that waxes and wanes through to August..

I'm seeing this year being dominated by an omni-present azores- mid Atlantic ridge, bringing alot of fine sunny dry weather but nothing especially hot, perhaps trending more unsettled for the north in time as the Atlantic revs into again, pushing heights further south but at the same time perhaps allowing some continental heat to invade the south as we see a more typical west- sw flow, a common sequence if events in an average summer. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not the most inspiring of weeks ahead, but far from a washout. Azores high staying fairly robust, but not quite close enough to prevent weak Atlantic incursions moving in from the NW bringing damp cloudy weather at times, more so Wed-Fri. Heaviest rain looks reserved yet again! For the south tomorrow. As we end June, signal the azores high will flex enough muscle to oust away the Atlantic, which would allow for more nationwide settled warm sunny conditions, question is whether it will have enough muscle to settle over the UK and move east, or just linger to our west. Either way a pleasant end to the month looks quite probable, but still time for new developments to emerge to scupper that prediction.

For here it is turning into an exceptionally dry June. Keswick has had just 3% of it's normal June average rainfall, last true wet day was nearing 4 weeks ago, we are having May weather in June!

You can say that again down here! Although, until Thursday it was largely as one would expect for June, if a bit on the drier side.

Encouraging to see signs of more typical summer conditions trying to establish as the week goes on.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

For here it is turning into an exceptionally dry June. Keswick has had just 3% of it's normal June average rainfall, last true wet day was nearing 4 weeks ago, we are having May weather in June!

Staggered to hear that. Incredible amounts of rain on the south coast! Latest ECM ensembles don't look like adding that much more rain to you either.

Edited by Man Without Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Just scrolled through the gfs and ecm ,long range forecast from my point of view an undulating jet stream...Heat ,Cold ,Wet, Dry ...British Weather Anyone.......!!!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Surely the ukmo 12z is wrong tonight?!

image.thumb.png.4cf620462915af58d60e51b8d33e8455.png

looks pretty close to me...

 

610day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
46 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

To add to the above, I've said a few times it's about now we see the summer base state seasonal wavelengths make there presence, meaning we often settle into a summer pattern that waxes and wanes through to August..

I'm seeing this year being dominated by an omni-present azores- mid Atlantic ridge, bringing alot of fine sunny dry weather but nothing especially hot, perhaps trending more unsettled for the north in time as the Atlantic revs into again, pushing heights further south but at the same time perhaps allowing some continental heat to invade the south as we see a more typical west- sw flow, a common sequence if events in an average summer. 

 

Exactly what the seasonal models were predicting- Mean HP sat just to our west and a rather benign pattern across the UK. The pattern was advertised as being a predominant one months back.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Unsurprisingly the 00z UKMO looks nothing like last nights run. The vanishing trough from yesterday has re-appeared more akin to other model output. As the low sinks south it starts to advect warmer air up from the SE:

image.thumb.png.9c0220f6217d2f939eed591bcf46bf74.pngimage.thumb.png.5bdaad2d2d7e27fe836c247151ad5983.pngimage.thumb.png.689676b35eeb4d627235a5bdcdaef79a.png

image.thumb.png.c0313f025ef0ef68f1a8ddd41ba0cd51.pngimage.thumb.png.cde3e0b552f74f1a53bb00d3908a1463.pngimage.thumb.png.7f3f03c08a13e2963e911e4826f3a492.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well this is most unhelpful! The Big 4 at 144 hours, all looking different:

image.thumb.png.fb6264be2d397f113d13ee83e0334048.pngimage.thumb.png.b6f092ce332063dfc8e1a7edba765cda.pngimage.thumb.png.d6bdbf71452357865331864e1cf066b8.pngimage.thumb.png.f41781cb2837f1ac0559fb0806edb2d6.png

ECM develops into quite a nice run though. West based high, so the best conditions tending to best west of the UK/Ireland, while cooler air feeds down the eastern half. Eastern coastal areas could suffer with very cool temps in this set up stuck in the low to mid teens:

image.thumb.png.875fa82247261d0456bdb91c5c7feec6.pngimage.thumb.png.f077f672a4d90a8cee600c17e67a0d84.pngimage.thumb.png.5ed5083bf175f0a7e6838727a4a6e76a.pngimage.thumb.png.015dceb1a16d5427d3fbb79279e3ba23.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well this is most unhelpful! The Big 4 at 144 hours, all looking different:

image.thumb.png.fb6264be2d397f113d13ee83e0334048.pngimage.thumb.png.b6f092ce332063dfc8e1a7edba765cda.pngimage.thumb.png.d6bdbf71452357865331864e1cf066b8.pngimage.thumb.png.f41781cb2837f1ac0559fb0806edb2d6.png

ECM develops into quite a nice run though. West based high, so the best conditions tending to best west of the UK/Ireland, while cooler air feeds down the eastern half. Eastern coastal areas could suffer with very cool temps in this set up stuck in the low to mid teens:

image.thumb.png.875fa82247261d0456bdb91c5c7feec6.pngimage.thumb.png.f077f672a4d90a8cee600c17e67a0d84.pngimage.thumb.png.5ed5083bf175f0a7e6838727a4a6e76a.pngimage.thumb.png.015dceb1a16d5427d3fbb79279e3ba23.png
 

When we compare the 144 hour charts ecm looks the outlier doesnt it?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

When we compare the 144 hour charts ecm looks the outlier doesnt it?!!

To be honest - I haven't got a clue!

Any one of them could be right I guess.

The 120 hour UKMO fax chart for 12z Friday (published last night) I would expect to change when updated today though. I mean just look at the differences compared to the 00z op run:

image.thumb.png.6d93fdf201237e31c904abb4aba9b298.pngimage.thumb.png.9930394f8fa3d0358aa81f9d62cfcb3a.png

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