Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the tide might turn today re the longer term prospects of dry and summery weather.  If we sum up the dichotomy on offer from the models it is either a return to a high pressure summer synoptics in a weeks time or a UK trough.  

12z take so far we have ICON and UKMO at T144:

I know which one I’m backing….

I wouldn’t trust UKMO much more than ICON at the moment. The last couple of times when it’s put out a half-decent 144 chart, it’s disappeared on the next run and not supported by any other model.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But the means were good for this weekend ten days ago. The outlook in the reliable is poor back to average, the. probably back to poor under troughing next weekend. 
 

5 days of 5-8C below average in southern England is not average summer weather….

And we all know just how 'gospel' Day 10 means are?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I wouldn’t trust UKMO much more than ICON at the moment. The last couple of times when it’s put out a half-decent 144 chart, it’s disappeared on the next run and not supported by any other model.

I think it is actually a yes or no scenario, re the UK trough at T144-T216 - we don’t know it will happen, I think given background signals it won’t:

And if it doesn’t, a high pressure summer situation will follow.  Let’s see what the other models think…

[Mike Poole]

GFS follows UKMO, making rather more of the heat pump low out west, T144:

I think this run will push the unsettled weather away from here…

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I’ve shown some great charts so far today from the GEFS 6z for example!!!..you can take them or leave them but you can’t say I’m not trying?. ..maybe you think I’m very trying?...wotev..but at least I’m trying.. ...just think about that?!   

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I’ve shown some great charts so far today from the GEFS 6z for example!!!..you can take them or leave them but you can’t say I’m not trying?. ..maybe you think I’m very trying?...wotev..but at least I’m trying.. ...just think about that?!   

No ones doubting you're trying, its just there's not a lot there. After an awful spring, 7-10days off decent weather in early June followed by a yucky spell doesn't cut it. 

At least GFS 12Z is attempting to shunt the trough east next weekend, hopefully that high doesn't become too negatively tilted though.....

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No ones doubting you're trying, its just there's not a lot there. After an awful spring, 7-10days off decent weather in early June followed by a yucky spell doesn't cut it. 

 

Shirley there’s a middle ground we can agree on? ..why does there always have too be conflict..mmmm..?..there’s good signs and bad signs..‘twas ever thus?  

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I’ve shown some great charts so far today from the GEFS 6z mean for example!!!..you can take them or leave them but you can’t say I’m not trying.. ..maybe you think I’m very trying?...wotev..but at least I’m trying.. ...just think about that!   

I do love your positivity, even if it’s a bit “glass half full!” @Alderc is a bit more “glass half empty”, but he has a point that the next few days are crud for summer.

Need a good ECM - this morning’s op was vile!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No ones doubting you're trying, its just there's not a lot there. After an awful spring, 7-10days off decent weather in early June followed by a yucky spell doesn't cut it. 

At least GFS 12Z is attempting to shunt the trough east next weekend, hopefully that high doesn't become too negatively tilted though.....

 

Looks a bit odd with a warm 850 NW flow there. High building east doesn’t really fit global patterns at the moment, so I’d expect it to stay more out to the west. It’s just if it can extend its tentacles out and keep us more settled. Not overly warm though.

Could ask be fairly disappointing in many areas next week with a trough sliding down. Exact position will determine who does well and who doesn’t. West looks best.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Shirley there’s a middle ground we can agree on? ..why does there always have too be conflict..mmmm..?..there’s good signs and bad signs..‘twas ever thus?  

And anywho, the weather will do what the weather will do . . . Come high water or High Noon!   

    

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I do love your positivity, even if it’s a bit “glass half full!” @Alderc is a bit more “glass half empty”, but he has a point that the next few days are crud for summer.

Need a good ECM - this morning’s op was vile!

I can’t disagree that the next few days are crap, but there does appear to be some kind of recovery beyond the summer solstice?...such a shame, the pinnacle of summer is junk..but there’s plenty of time for summery weather beyond that even though the days start getting shorter and sun starts getting lower..darn it..  

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Looks a bit odd with a warm 850 NW flow there. High building east doesn’t really fit global patterns at the moment, so I’d expect it to stay more out to the west. It’s just if it can extend its tentacles out and keep us more settled. Not overly warm though.

Could ask be fairly disappointing in many areas next week with a trough sliding down. Exact position will determine who does well and who doesn’t. West looks best.

GFS 12Z is very cloudy, mild uppers pouring across the the northern Atlantic is a receipe for cloud and nowt else IMO. But again its just so annoying, fine margins, if the high was a couple hundred miles further east its bingo.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z is very cloudy, mild uppers pouring across the the northern Atlantic is a receipe for cloud and nowt else IMO. But again its just so annoying, fine margins, if the high was a couple hundred miles further east its bingo.

Stuff the op,.. unless it shows a heatwave!   .. focus more on the mean and perturbations!  ..you know it makes sense..wow, now I sound like Del Boy!  

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

Well the GEM 12Z is certainly the best of the bunch so far!

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z is very cloudy, mild uppers pouring across the the northern Atlantic is a receipe for cloud and nowt else IMO. But again its just so annoying, fine margins, if the high was a couple hundred miles further east its bingo.

Yes, here at T252 (I don’t like those Wetterzentrale charts):

You have the situation of high pressure pushing in from the west with nothing to stop it and a heat low, now weak, the stuff to the east of the UK, that’s yesterdays news, so you would expect the weather to improve as the system moves gradually east…if, of course, GFS is right at T252, which it probably isn’t.  

meanwhile, GEM rolling, I’d take that at T102, but it shows how much uncertainty there is early on at D4.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

Broadly we have self-perpetuating low heights across the Arctic until further notice, which should tend to discourage troughs from parking up level with the UK for long. Further south is a different matter - worth keeping an eye out for lows stalling over mainland Europe, especially in the west (most of all if over sea, a little west of Iberia).

With weak Nina-like forcing from the tropics in the midrange, the Azores High should become mighty strong for the final third of June. We then look to those low Arctic heights to ‘smoosh’ that ridge north-eastward, across the UK.

That’d be a mainly fine, dry way to see out the lower AAM interlude prior to the next climb (however large or not that proves to be).

[Mike Poole]

Actually, does anyone want to go back to basics, and suggest where things would go for the UK from the ECM T72…I’m not looking at a bad outcome longer term:

[Frosty.]

There may be something wrong with me?..heck I know there’s something wrong with me.. I’m Autustic..Duh!...anyway, there’s at least some good signs from the GEFS 12z..if you look hard enough..you will always find something good!?...I appreciate that some don’t like summer / warmth..respect!..everyone has a valid opinion!..call me crazy though but I like summer to be summery! ...anyway, good luck to you all..I’m sure someone will end up happy!  

[mb018538]

ECM going ultra aggressive with the trough at 144. Look at GEM at the same time:

 

Night and day. More runs needed!

[Guest]

ECM is not our friend tonight! What a shocker for next weekend - bet it comes off because it’s so poor…..how disappointing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is not our friend tonight! What a shocker for next weekend - bet it comes off because it’s so poor…..how disappointing.

I’m not so sure. We were originally shown to be sat under a trough this coming week but any rain for here has evaporated so to speak.

[Methuselah]

What a stonker of a GEFS temperature ensemble . . . in Lisbon! 

    

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’m not so sure. We were originally shown to be sat under a trough this coming week but any rain for here has evaporated so to speak.

But we currently sat under a trough now with five utterly awful days, followed by a return to barely average……hardly much to crow about…..

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a stonker of a GEFS temperature ensemble . . . in Lisbon! 

    

 

At least Tamara will be happy?..that’s some consolation at least!  

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

At least Tamara will be happy?..that’s some consolation at least!  

Glad it’s hot in Iberia. When we do get our plume, it will be a hot one!