Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Willsy]

is that a plume from southern greenland lol that’s quite some uppers coming in off a nw wind on the 4 th chart 

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, draztik said:

If a model isn’t showing you what you want to see, it has to be wrong.

 

Not that at all….when you get a chart so far off the other output, it’s usually an outlier. As these charts above show.

[Guest]

Oh Bore-off why don't you.

Very little to suggest a return to anything warmer IMO 

GFS ensembles

GEM ensembles

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We need to see where that little cut off low ends up going first, as that could change everything. I wouldn’t take the ensembles too literally. This warm weather and plume wasn’t even picked up until a week out. We was supposed to get cool northerlies! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On 18/06/2021 at 07:53, northwestsnow said:

0z runs say  the excellent start to summer continues by and large for the next 10 days. looks in the main,dry ,warm and settled.

June now looking a beautiful summer month ,if the 00z data is on the right track.

 

 

 

Hi mate hope all is well with you. I have to agree with your summary here,and tbh it looks to me that signals seem to be weaker than normal this year,with even the Met highlighting low confidence from these signals in all there updates! A decent bet to me looks like a fair amount of settled conditions around at times with occasional blips of unsettled conditions,more towards the North of the UK!

Some rain around this Weekend and into Monday but perhaps becoming more settled as the week goes on...after a cool start,becoming warmer later!

Honest opinion is it does not look to bad! ECM mean flags this up well and does not really side with the op run this morning.

Have a great Weekend all and big up Scotland...you boys have some true grit...

[mushymanrob]

Anomalies arent too bad, they dont allow for that large scandinavian trough some gfs runs have in FI, theres no negative pressure anomaly, but slight heights. A pretty slack Westerly/North of west upper flow, weak troughing over biscay, .(and the UK )

Theres nothing seriously poor here (although short lived unsettled spells are possible) . Not entirely settled, but nothing as poor as currently we are getting. Could be warm, or thundery as some charts suggest if we do establish troughing over Biscay.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Oh Bore-off why don't you.

Very little to suggest a return to anything warmer IMO 

GFS ensembles

GEM ensembles

850s of 8-12 can easily deliver. Depends what the pressure is like. High pressure centered over us would deliver high twenties after a few days 

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmmm, tricky this morning...

UKMO looks decent ,EC not as much,but the mean looks decent too.

Next week looks a bit no mans land ish.

Difficult to pin down conditions on the ground and cloud amounts. 

West is best perhaps, closer to HP ?

[minus10]

Pretty poor it has to be said for the summer solstice....11 degrees in many areas according to gfs 0z

At least it warms up a bit by end of the month...

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by minus10

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Pretty poor it has to be said for the summer solstice....11 degrees in many areas according to gfs 0z

At least it warms up a bit by end of the month...

 

That verifies then Monday is up there with some of the absolute coldest summers days you can get in the south….

Edited June 19, 2021 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean, it isn’t terrible, it looks pretty average and on balance, favours the south for somewhat better conditions than the north?... which is par for the course in a British summer! ?.as for the summer solstice..cough cough..erm erm..no comment...  ..  

 

[knocker]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Anomalies arent too bad, they dont allow for that large scandinavian trough some gfs runs have in FI, theres no negative pressure anomaly, but slight heights. A pretty slack Westerly/North of west upper flow, weak troughing over biscay, .(and the UK )

Theres nothing seriously poor here (although short lived unsettled spells are possible) . Not entirely settled, but nothing as poor as currently we are getting. Could be warm, or thundery as some charts suggest if we do establish troughing over Biscay.

And the ext anomalies pretty much go along with that Mushy

Edited June 19, 2021 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Mein Gott in Himmel, the GFS 06Z is a horror show! 

    

    

    

And it closes out with a real shocker! 

[Eagle Eye]

What ICON says for tonight's thunderstorm's that might clip the coast.

Relatively small amounts of instability.

Looking forward...

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters: A game of pin the tail on the donkey with regards that cut-off low next weekend.

Looking through the clusters individually, it seems most people believe the UK is somewhere close to the donkey's bottom. However, being such a small feature, tantalisingly close to more settled weather wither from the west (cooler) or from the east/south (hotter). So the UK trough is definitely a forecast to fear, but not one to bet on yet.

Further out, a little more mobility into the pattern, but maybe not enough in the mid-term to shift the trough too far from where it sets up shop. What we have at D8 might be what we keep out to D15.

If someone forced me to make a forecast right now for the final third of June, I'd say 50% chance of trough close to UK dominating, 30% chance trough to SW and warm/hot/sunny/thundery, 20% chance trough to north or east and more average weather from the west.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op longer term is nae bad..do I need to explain myself further????..hmmmmmmmmm!!!! ...how do we get there??, gawd knows..well there’s a high , there’s a low ..?erm..woteva.... I’m no expert..ask an expert?!!..pfft!  

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

OMG there’s some great signals for late June from the GEFS 6z!...maybe only I’m interested?...it sure seems like it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

I'm interested too @Jon Snow; I've been getting good vibes about this summer!

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm interested too @Jon Snow; I've been getting good vibes about this summer!

Well at least it can’t get worse than the last couple of days and the next few!

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well at least it can’t get worse than the last couple of days and the next few!

Hey it’s not been a bad summer so far..just think back to May..utter cold crap fest!!!!!. there are peaks and troughs for sure.. ..it’s not always hot and sunny in a u k summer.. not like in the Mediterranean?..and even the med ain’t perfik!!!..I feel the mean is on a decent track for a recovery in surface conditions for the majority from around next midweek onwards? ..positive thinking gang!!!  

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Atmogenic]

As long as this dreadful cloudy skies dissipates, i don't mind if we get heat or not as the sun is warm enough now to feel good in the sun.

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey it’s not been a bad summer so far..just think back to May..utter cold crap fest!!!!!. there are peaks and troughs for sure.. ..it’s not always hot and sunny in a u k summer.. not like in the Mediterranean?..and even the med ain’t perfik!!!..I feel the mean is on a decent track for a recovery in surface conditions for the majority from around next midweek onwards? ..positive thinking gang!!!  

A recovery maybe back to average after a ‘worst case’ 5 days with temps 5-8C below average. 
 

Later this week offers high pressure ridging in but plenty of cloud and possibly drizzle from weakening fronts sliding down from the north west and then it’s highly likely troughing of some sorts will affect next weekend. 
 

Its not really positive IMO second half of June likely to be lumped in with what most of May was like. Cool, damp and overcast.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A recovery maybe back to average after a ‘worst case’ 5 days with temps 5-8C below average. 
 

Later this week offers high pressure ridging in but plenty of cloud and possibly drizzle from weakening fronts sliding down from the north west and then it’s highly likely troughing of some sorts will affect next weekend. 
 

Its not really positive IMO second half of June likely to be lumped in with what most of May was like. Cool, damp and overcast.

Jeez you make it sound so bad, but there are decent signs from the mean once we get past the summer solstice!!..it’s actually normal u k summer..peaks and troughs..summers can’t all be like 1976.. Ja !!!!? ..chin up old bean..chap..woteva!   

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez you make it sound so bad, but there are decent signs from the mean once we get past the summer solstice!!..it’s actually normal u k summer..peaks and troughs..summers can’t all be like 1976.. Ja !!!!? ..chin up old bean..chap..woteva!   

But the means were good for this weekend ten days ago. The outlook in the reliable is poor back to average, the. probably back to poor under troughing next weekend. 
 

5 days of 5-8C below average in southern England is not average summer weather….

[Mike Poole]

I think the tide might turn today re the longer term prospects of dry and summery weather.  If we sum up the dichotomy on offer from the models it is either a return to a high pressure summer synoptics in a weeks time or a UK trough.  

12z take so far we have ICON and UKMO at T144:

I know which one I’m backing….