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Model output discussion 9th April onwards

minus10

By minus10
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

B46C9880-A273-46CE-8E95-1ABD007930B4.thumb.png.961ce246bc0ead0674aabfef0e2086e5.png

Weve had a nice couple of weeks after a month of crud in May….so the weather gods have decided to punish us with more crud in June. Yuck!  

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

6A15D8FC-84E1-49AD-B5D6-48AF526B52BA.thumb.jpeg.dd49b9c7e4a8004358919a71a8c5cbcb.jpeg

Once again Siberia is an absolute bake. Recurring theme of the modern summer. 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

B46C9880-A273-46CE-8E95-1ABD007930B4.thumb.png.961ce246bc0ead0674aabfef0e2086e5.png

Weve had a nice couple of weeks after a month of crud in May….so the weather gods have decided to punish us with more crud in June. Yuck!  

no anomaly support for that rather bizarre chart.. (its evolution), interesting viewing but nowt to worry about.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the GEFS 12z..late June might not be so bad?! ...I much prefer the storm thread,  they are far more enthusiastic about the weather than in here!!!  

686D5099-CDFA-471E-96DC-BEDDF41AFC3A.thumb.png.72942853898b301eb55d7b5d2c8b0de7.png68395756-3A6A-4941-B399-405F67162C28.thumb.png.d3741f4759314c8a9be655f36e63ebcd.png4180A611-9EF8-4BD6-83F6-818CBB053DB7.thumb.png.5c2bac2087ebc1d77507c51393b3dc45.png0F5A3F9A-8B9C-4294-8945-E8F75ADE6E22.thumb.png.254f048cd7d8fe4d90e5f8320ca02d75.png

 

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
32 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

no anomaly support for that rather bizarre chart.. (its evolution), interesting viewing but nowt to worry about.

A interesting one to say the least 

Awesome model viewing regardless, hopefully the models continue in terms of the warmth, definitely deserve it

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

It may not mean anything..I don’t know, I’m no expert!!!?...but what is an expert???.. ..anyway, I know what I see!..and I see potential for a decent early July from the GEFS 12z!...nuff said!!!!!!  

6DC183AC-B601-4982-8374-2DF7E25D4F7A.thumb.png.c9568953db57d203281b2480e438f5d5.pngD81FC400-754B-40B0-9427-D468CB54DC0A.thumb.png.c23117ced0ec1fad05468ff7bb186b8b.png755CC25E-B9B1-456A-9D67-D32BFC5A08D3.thumb.png.473b3892743f747d5e61d5af1401abba.png7336C695-0FEB-4A45-BC6F-7EA1B4C805A3.thumb.png.0260227a3e7caf309f111d914b4d8f82.pngEEF4B76C-5A2C-42F6-82A9-79CE77EFC94A.thumb.png.9fd8dc90ae02eb3a72e53974ce1226a3.png81A2F156-A21C-422D-A21C-4D417693628C.thumb.png.cf1609c1c3d361adcb3202c4f630fe3b.pngFEEFF1AC-7E4C-4FF6-B61C-56D505729207.thumb.png.5ec7562432bd0e23544518a47b34448f.png90D295DC-F5DC-40FD-99BE-4FA1527FEEF3.thumb.png.4f1accdc2065741bedc8446c458c2612.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

no anomaly support for that rather bizarre chart.. (its evolution), interesting viewing but nowt to worry about.

Seem to have heard the 'no anomaly support' quite a bit recently. While the northerly heights aren't there on this evenings ECM another trough drops down over the UK at D9.

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.d63286670860e93b2b8a5a6d3f8dcbe5.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.png.ed61d6b8d991f7b83a25159bce3459bc.png

ECM in full on trolling mode by day 10. It’s another of those so bad to be true charts that we seem to be a magnet for in the UK!

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.ed61d6b8d991f7b83a25159bce3459bc.png

ECM in full on trolling mode by day 10. It’s another of those so bad to be true charts that we seem to be a magnet for in the UK!

Ridiculous 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.ed61d6b8d991f7b83a25159bce3459bc.png

ECM in full on trolling mode by day 10. It’s another of those so bad to be true charts that we seem to be a magnet for in the UK!

Well we are now approaching high summer and time when summer sometimes beds in for the long haul. Let’s hope it doesn’t bed into what any of big models are showing tonight otherwise we will bring up those summer that shall not be named. 
 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

No comments about the ridging which precedes the trough?..not to get too technical?..  ..(green snot)..that figures!!!..actually the ECM 12z op isn’t all bad!  

EA40F4FD-19E4-4FF4-BF84-246BB7FDB9B6.thumb.png.8e5cc17a4dcb142bdbd05db2d9296278.pngA7A9EF31-43DC-4B95-B19B-6250B5908EA7.thumb.png.9add520e1100d27f880bcab16c0dbe0a.png

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

I think its normal for this time of year to be troughed. Our equivalent to the Indian Monsoon - "return of the westerlies".   Quite a few hot members in the ensembles from GEM and GFS for later in the month going above 18C. 

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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted (edited)

Next 7 days forecast

It’s the mirror universe NW/SE split!

2254E1DA-5455-403E-88BA-496EA1B6C15D.thumb.png.75f42cbfd1d051af9e4d407b611acb34.png
 

Edited by Uncertainy
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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted

Evening all

Again, I'm struggling to see much for fans of heat on tonight's output.

If you get the Azores HP ridging more north than north-east (GEM), it's pleasant and warm but it's not going to be hot.

Even if you can get a lobe of HP to break through to the east and threaten to advect warmer air from the south, the problem is the trough fills the gap and the wind goes more east than south and it's game over for heat.

The GFS OP NH profile sums it up quite nicely - north western Europe is trapped between two areas of heights, the Azores HP to the west and the weak but persistent heights over the eastern Baltic and Russia. The trough from the north sinks south toward and across the British Isles re-enforcing the heights to the east and drawing hot air over eastern Scandinavia and Russia. The heights over southern Europe stop the trough going too far south so it fills in situ.

From the 12Z GFS OP at T+240 and T+360. Note the Atlantic is almost moribund with a persistent trough to the west of the Azores HP which allows the latter to ridge north periodically but there's no energy to produce a more meaningful NE'ly tilt.

image.thumb.png.d3f7aa5cca0a715e13bebbab569a6e8a.pngimage.thumb.png.02270b99acfedefba9772b426da60082.png

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
26 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Next 7 days forecast

It’s the mirror universe NW/SE split!

2254E1DA-5455-403E-88BA-496EA1B6C15D.thumb.png.75f42cbfd1d051af9e4d407b611acb34.png
 

Most ensembles also top 100mm over central England in next 10 days

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Plume from southern Greenland anyone...? 

h850t850eu.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Next weeks exciting 3pm temps for a late June afternoon.  Woopy woo 

 

MISERY 3.png

MISERY 2.png

MISERY1.png

Surely not, utterly ridiculous. 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Not looking quite so doom and gloom on UKMO this morning:

image.thumb.png.1e7a910c225be034d93e9a8537189cad.pngimage.thumb.png.a4740825b50257a2621d632dc39d2631.png

image.thumb.png.e2ed601af63456edfbfd46ec622adb4c.pngimage.thumb.png.488cd7181972d44178dadf74727da1a2.png

Weak ridge over the UK by the end of the week. 850s actually look at at around 8c, so will probably be ok in places (22/23c) if there isn't any frontal stuff toppling in from the NW.


 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
11 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

There was no anomaly support for what we are experiencing now. They are useful, but not as infallible as some lead us to believe.

Yes there was! ...this unsettled spell WAS modelled by the anomalies, ive been expecting it for a while now.

NO ONE has said they are infallible...

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

0z runs say  the excellent start to summer continues by and large for the next 10 days. looks in the main,dry ,warm and settled.

June now looking a beautiful summer month ,if the 00z data is on the right track.

 

 

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

0z runs say  the excellent start to summer continues by and large for the next 10 days. looks in the main,dry ,warm and settled.

June now looking a beautiful summer month ,if the 00z data is on the right track.

 

 

 

A couple of lucky breaks here and there and we could get away with it! This chart below shows how. Upper troughs to the SW and E of the UK, and we just about sit under a weak ridge. This leaves a very nice summers say for many. If these troughs move just a little bit, we could be talking mid to upper teens, cloud and rain. Very slim margins!

image.thumb.png.97356e0b7874c6c5995155bad3e846ff.pngimage.thumb.png.1c66a56f0d00b83fd8cbba1d062deef2.png

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

We've had the beautiful weaather for a few week but eventually the British weather wins out in the end. 

The green snot for the technical term to bring... 

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.4538c63b3d59156addfc20bf1bb57773.pnggfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.0f4db6141e1c717640436ffdc4809941.png1548862163_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.332827a0f659958d8715eaff2ca12d74.png

Rain

gfseuw-2-258.thumb.png.8511cbc7abb7d233ff9c9a0b96f0fa1d.png

Welcome to the British Summer, it last for a week the rest is Autumn. 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
12 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

There was no anomaly support for what we are experiencing now. They are useful, but not as infallible as some lead us to believe.

As mushy commented earlier, of course they are not infallible. But they do, with care, note that phrase, give the best outlook at 500 mb. We then have the extremely complex and difficult last bit of the atmosphere to try and predict, from 500 mb (18000 ft) to the surface. How to deal with ppn, mountains, oceans etc. Not easy even with the increasingly complex models but very very slowly accuracy is improving. 

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