Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Right bad news first!!everything further east on most models which means cooler!!good news is becuase of that its not as wet especially for my part of the world anyway!!yesterdays ecm run had deluge after deluge for the midlands!!much drier today!hopefully stays that way!!!

Yes its not a good start to day the usual 50miles eastward correction has taken place, I wonder how far further east it'll go in the next 30hrs or so. 

[mb018538]

Spot the torrential thundery rain! Heavily focused across the SE corner as you may expect with what is coming from late Wednesday onwards.




The tropical Atlantic has also woken up. TS Bill is into the mix, and the yellow X disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance of forming into a storm according to NHC. It appears the ECM thinks this turns into a full blown system at day 7-10 as it exits the eastern seaboard and heads our way:

Edited June 15, 2021 by mb018538

[Bradley in Kent]

 

Not such a big scatter anymore!

Nothing especially hot in the ensembles but not a disastrous outlook overall, pretty non descript. 

It is part and parcel that when there are prospects of interesting weather in NW Europe the models (and definitely media) can overdo it at medium to long range. 

Fingers crossed we don't end up with a bust tomorrow onwards with storms running into the North Sea instead. Like snow I've seen more forecasts for thunderstorms than actual thunderstorms, yes both are hard to predict I know, I've got into the habit of expecting less!

[mb018538]

Not all doom and gloom on the ECM mean. Note the 500mb heights increasing from day 8-10, as well as the 1020mb line starting to cover the UK again by day 10. Mean 850 temps also recovering as the trough slowly lifts out.

Edited June 15, 2021 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 0z mean covering late June, I would say it’s currently 50/50...i.e / eg..woteva..between favourable (high pressure) and unfavourable (low pressure) towards the end of June...it’s not a terrible longer term mean..erm.. ...by any means!  

Edited June 15, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational in the short term, the SE is targeted a few times with continental thunderstorms rumbling their way north / north eastwards  from tomorrow evening into Thursday, and then possibly again on Friday even though the main thrust is across the continent, although tomorrow will be a very warm / locally hot and humid day further SE, by Thursday the main heat is swept away to the E / SE but most of the near continent remains hot and sticky with some impressive cape and plenty of fuel for further thunderstorms, the u k cape index looks pretty crap compared to mainland Europe but that doesn’t matter when storms cross the channel into the s / se...lots to keep an eye on...or even 2 eyes on during the next few days!  ⛈ 

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Eagle Eye]

Looks to be a nice storm that approaches, ripe for pictures. 

[Methuselah]

Well, I must say that I was expecting worse! Thursday could be oppressive, further south & east, should the clouds break . . . after that, it all looks a bit of a dog's breakfast, to me:

    

    

    

    

And of course there's plenty of scatter within the  ensembles:

   

   

Edited June 15, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

Probably the less said about the 12z GFS run the better. One of the worst of the summer so far!

[rory o gorman]

GFS at 222 hrs. This is the holy grail for the worst of summer charts possible , a new windy 'variant' of the green snot.

[Scorcher]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Probably the less said about the 12z GFS run the better. One of the worst of the summer so far!

Thankfully UKMO looks a lot better to me. That is just comically bad from the GFS. Hard to come up with worse summer charts if you tried.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Thankfully UKMO looks a lot better to me. That is just comically bad from the GFS. Hard to come up with worse summer charts if you tried.

Its funny how that green snot has the whole of the northern hemisphere to choose from and instead it slaps itself right on top of us!!!ridiculous just ridiculous!!

[Methuselah]

Taking the GFS 12Z as the 'worst case scenario', I don't think the second half of June is looking too bad: mostly on the warm side, but never exceptionally so; plenty of potential for thundery downpours, along with sunny spells; and, as is often the case (when slow-moving thunderstorms develop inland) coastal regions may well benefit from onshore sea breezes . . . and that's the worst case?

 

     

     

     

 

I could have sworn I just saw one of my marbles fly out of the window!

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Taking the GFS 12Z as the 'worst case scenario', I don't think the second half of June is looking too bad: mostly on the warm side, but never exceptionally so; plenty of potential for thundery downpours, along with sunny spells; and, as is often the case (when slow-moving thunderstorms develop inland) coastal regions may well benefit from onshore sea breezes . . . and that's the worst case?

 

     

     

     

 

I could have sworn I just saw one of my marbles fly out of the window!

Thankfully the GEM run is much more plateable!

[Mike Poole]

GFS is awful tonight.  No good points.  Just diabolical.  

GEM shows a route through to something more than decent as @Alderc shows above, whole run below:

I think we are just seeing poor model reliability in summer, the models are worse than in winter because of the lack of strong drivers like the vortex, I presume, so FI is day 4 or 5 at best.  There is nothing I can see in the background signals like AAM which is forecast to rise again, to suggest a perpetual UK trough like GFS.  I think we need to be patient, enjoy or endure the thundery period upcoming as is your preference, and then see what the models are saying afterwards.  My money is on a shift back to dry hot and settled, as per the GEM, but we will see…

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op shows a further risk of thunderstorms early next week too, indeed more widespread with better cape than the next few days!!...anyway, there could be some fantastic storms drifting up from scorching northern France tomorrow evening, overnight and during Thursday across the s / se..and a further risk on Friday across the SE.?..similar to what the 6z showed..good luck storm chasers! ⛈ 

 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Probably the less said about the 12z GFS run the better. One of the worst of the summer so far!

Talk about Bullseye! Jim Bowen couldnt have planned it any better...

 

[Guest]

Has to be said ECM out to T168 isn’t very pretty. Not sure I want to see the rest. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Alderc said:

Has to be said ECM out to T168 isn’t very pretty. Not sure I want to see the rest. 

Looks good to me after a few weeks of decent weather. Let’s get a shallow LP over us and have some convective activity (as GFS shows). Max solar heating at this time of year so we can grow our own crackers!

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Has to be said ECM out to T168 isn’t very pretty. Not sure I want to see the rest. 

All’s good in the hood at T216, mate!

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

All’s good in the hood at T216, mate!

Not sure I buy this evolution. Very rare to get a Greenland high and an Azores ridge building over the uk at the same time!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure I buy this evolution. Very rare to get a Greenland high and an Azores ridge building over the uk at the same time!

Not sure I buy any evolution at the moment!

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure I buy this evolution. Very rare to get a Greenland high and an Azores ridge building over the uk at the same time!

Yeah would be a cloudy and humid evolution too (N of the Midlands for sure). Quite a long fetch southwesterly with neither the HP or trough having sole control. 

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure I buy this evolution. Very rare to get a Greenland high and an Azores ridge building over the uk at the same time!

Yes, backs up my point from earlier FI is about day 4 or 5 at most.  Uncertainty abounds after the thundery spell is over…

Looking beyond, AAM seems forecast to rebound:

SSTs now give a bit of ballast after the first half of June:

I would think that without anything dramatic changing, and I can’t see it at the moment, this SST profile would continue to enforce rather than reduce Azores UK ridging.  Not sure how far north it might get though, I’m seeing a NW/SE split for a while, but for the SE I’d bet on hot and sunny by mid next week.  

 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, backs up my point from earlier FI is about day 4 or 5 at most.  Uncertainty abounds after the thundery spell is over…

Looking beyond, AAM seems forecast to rebound:

SSTs now give a bit of ballast after the first half of June:

I would think that without anything dramatic changing, and I can’t see it at the moment, this SST profile would continue to enforce rather than reduce Azores UK ridging.  Not sure how far north it might get though, I’m seeing a NW/SE split for a while, but for the SE I’d bet on hot and sunny by mid next week.  

 

The ECM forecast is fairly similar - though with a fall now until the first week of July, I wouldn’t be expecting the second half of the month to be that great. Could be looking at 3 weeks of mainly trough dominated weather now as pacific convection completely dries up, before the MJO starts moving again early July. Probably not on the scale of last summer though.