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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Following the run of the ecm12z you can see the rinse and repeat pattern with low pressures coming in from the west and stalling over us or in our vicinity and with relative HP to the east thus allowing warm periods followed by thundery breakdowns and cooler fresher spells although the heat is never that far away with the LPs not being able to move further east. At the end more warm air making its way over to us from the sw and the process could repeat yet again.. 

image.thumb.png.522f68827c0cbba8d6426d4918c6ae89.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I’ve been selective with the GEFS 12z members but the longer term mean doesn’t look bad, there’s scope for a return to summery conditions during late June following a more average period?. In the meantime, the SE in particular looks generally very warm or even hot  and becoming increasingly humid again following a fresher blip on Tuesday, the heat and humidity building again from midweek with some big storms spreading up from the near continent, even some home grown storms breaking out too...the Very warm conditions could linger into next weekend across the SE?....anyway, there’s a lot going on but the main focus is for the s / se.. ☀️ ⛈ 

F671E004-29E3-4B1D-B06D-DD8B44E688F0.thumb.png.73e9b0487edac2ef4ab8f77635e24f19.png9A840395-1719-47E8-8F32-403938AC63EE.thumb.png.2ec1f192645ab3cb999255a38cbf3056.png7A61F15D-F952-40B6-B0CC-080889AE8EFA.thumb.png.0af2f9a301eebad4f4f1aad9d23fd170.pngA190B3ED-BC75-46D9-B636-907CB7AA1606.thumb.png.9ad6b334ed740cb6bd1f39a0cdc958d7.pngE91866C7-D5F1-4C43-81E5-C3049FB37DFF.thumb.png.f2bc008ecf441029832b5e8afda9d8a4.png1C1B0185-AB6E-407C-A929-351A5A3A360D.thumb.png.5d197c402f41e0dde4f629a58bad80d7.png6E644A03-6889-40A7-839A-4752A7229D88.thumb.png.30cbb363f3c8a1480d8445c459408ed0.png4B8ACBB3-DE30-4E67-A549-C15EF35DAD24.thumb.png.ee380ec4ab7a5ab384fa317c94bd8fda.png7EDF2CFE-90E0-41B1-B917-1DEB80898942.thumb.png.e728e5c8470de5e954e7750fe2eb248f.png0AAE08E1-821B-499E-8F10-FF9D9DA440CD.thumb.png.3c4eec5999050699dd7fae05ae74ee5d.pngE44C467C-77DD-405B-A332-6E491F1691C0.thumb.jpeg.0357ac65667e314a81a22240b674bcdc.jpeg

 

Is that 24c uppers in the SE!? If so, that is a very extreme chart and one which would likely send the all time June record packing! 

That would be truly unprecedented for June. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Nothing very clear at the moment, quite a messy set up, UK looks caught in a bit of a no mans position, Atlantic trough doing its hardest to settle in over it, but coming unstuck by continental forces which short term bring in a pincer low pressure development. How the low and the trough interact remains the puzzle. ECM keen on them both absorbing into one which crucially allows heights to build out west as well as hold firm to the east, this easily sets up a platform directly over the UK for the trough to make home over it. GFS also going the same way.. we may be about to exchange a very dry very warm first half to June for a much more wetter and topsy turvy second half to June temp wise with some marked cooler conditions at times compared to the first half at least. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nice to see Thursday's excitement still looking on. And the rest of the GFS 00z shows just why a slightly positive pressure-anomaly to our west doesn't necessarily result in a predominantly cool northerly flow:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Is that an incoming cool northerly, I see?!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.592fed8b4404fbc57dc212aadd533fc9.pngimage.thumb.png.d7262cbd48e7112c397f4f1b0d44a41e.png

image.thumb.png.2a337e5574b7d1f764ccdc7a04bc4b64.pngimage.thumb.png.a507ea545c489e3b2bf6a54daba907bd.png

UKMO and ECM day 6/7 comparison. UKMO much keener to split a cut off low down over Iberia, which allows pressure to build over the top. ECM drops this straight through the UK and keeps it more unsettled.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

ECM

Screenshot_20210614_074457.thumb.jpg.70cd0cb92102a1cd031082733fa971e7.jpgScreenshot_20210614_074510.thumb.jpg.5357d929f06df88e1a08961e0e728e92.jpg

Screenshot_20210614_074526.thumb.jpg.b905ac58e73e554fb35d536aa2f863da.jpgScreenshot_20210614_074543.thumb.jpg.9f13a75cf2feed3573c30c5a48024591.jpgScreenshot_20210614_074601.thumb.jpg.385e4e67f6f54b36bf8dd8c0fa3b91b6.jpg

Screenshot_20210614_074623.thumb.jpg.5ebe86f7e67edcd204e76f2a3a986748.jpgScreenshot_20210614_074903.thumb.jpg.f4003aaa502f52fac4d6b5f30763f0a1.jpg

 

Screenshot_20210614_075038.thumb.jpg.1426b4fae3218e7543e25d8df71fb0ab.jpg

You can see two main rounds, one is the main band coming up from a typical Plume position in in NW France and has probably the best chance of not becoming a Kent Clipper should it come off, the second round in mid-morning to early afternoon becomes evident on the model around six before spreading North but will probably be corrected further East by that time. 

GEM

gemeuw-2-66.thumb.png.522cf2283c9e4a801bdc0fa724e63e66.pnggemeuw-11-66.thumb.png.f5a52322179a237b6075193f3ca24eed.pnggemeuw-2-72.thumb.png.c43bb5fbc01eec80969487c192ee8c3b.png

Again you can see the first round there at typical import timing towards midnight and the early hours of the morning, hitting London, the SE and East Anglia. 

It then moves into the North Sea with perhaps some more thundery showers lagging behind it. 

380441354_gemeuw-2-78(2).thumb.png.54dfd15880aa482a46c5c4504fd224fa.png

Eagle Eye

 

Screenshot_20210614_074919.jpg

 

Screenshot_20210614_074614_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

If you are sick to the back teeth of the recent heat, then relief  to more pleasant temperatures is on the way:

image.thumb.png.7d67a9ec7b658d73d06d1c23c060c90a.pngimage.thumb.png.4352fe104fafcf3850c053023c63e7d1.png

Not turning cold for most by any stretch, just something closer to the average for late June. High teens/low twenties instead of mid to high twenties.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

ukvgif_weds-thurs.gif

I think that even with correctionns eastward this could be quite a good event. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Heat, what heat?

Is there ever any heat in County Down? 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

NetWx-MR going for a late party, would eat her it at night but still looks great, imagine this at night. 

nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.5e463b64fedc604b4837cbbc823f0938.png1055817344_nmmuk3hrprecip(1).thumb.png.fd4b5530bc69d959322538dbd0e7c706.png959177320_nmmuk3hrprecip(2).thumb.png.2ca4923687473adb63a70951e8f73007.png493621215_nmmuk3hrprecip(3).thumb.png.55c5d3d7989cf1c16c36995612aa4d21.png1383956036_nmmuk3hrprecip(4).thumb.png.b62b61aae8c3b14be36e18001c19e6f6.png

GFS

1614636447_ukprec(80).thumb.png.e1e29abc7bdd268e67dd4f750feb7e68.png

1471991735_ukcapeli(36).thumb.png.3d4007f9e07481101ffba211240ff610.png1495969794_ukprec(81).thumb.png.e51ddb93c9dad7f767e728fde0b91e5c.png1346962692_ukcapeli(37).thumb.png.10a4c388d6f561d0dfd5690d6a3a1a55.png26155174_ukprec(82).thumb.png.f4e1f97b7b7bd37a24c5535369f419dd.png796414327_ukcapeli(38).thumb.png.703ee58ce4a5bceae71c4832011dae0b.png2072495426_ukprec(83).thumb.png.57f60969abb27c8175d080b6bbcd868e.png2083563096_ukprec(84).thumb.png.cc3cc987318d5a0a3f6300bfb6e2a930.png

nmmuk3hrprecip (5).png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The pains of trying to work out the D4-D6 pattern are clear on the clusters today, but they seem almost unanimous that a less warm and less settled period will follow early next week, even if only for a few days.

You can see by D5 (T120) the difficulties in dealing with the disrupted low to the west, and how close the east of the UK is to remaining in the very warm air up to this time (actual surface heat will depend on how much cloud/thunder gets mixed in and where)

image.thumb.png.8edcc51f424594a6c7e07fd42e9016f6.png

By D8, though, almost all ensembles push the trough through to the UK at last - just a chance on cluster 3 of the UK remaining on the warm side of the flow but can't see it being hot and sunny on any options.

image.thumb.png.5462dcbe2b179153b603574de01e70c0.png

Good news for ice-cream vans is that the ECM provides many quick ways out of the UK low scenario. By D11, cluster 1 has pushed the trough back west enough for the UK to become a little more settled and warmer again, whilst cluster 3 (focussing on the anomaly colours, not the specifics of the lines) has carried on from cluster 3 at D8 in never allowing a UK trough to take a significant hold in the first place, and is suggestive of settled conditions being the main course throughout next week.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021061400_264.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol

Long time (normally) a winter lurker. Would it be possible for one of you esteemed members to decipher the latest models and put some money on a forecast. I'm cycling from Kent to Somerset Saturday and need a dry tailwind. Sorry mods, it's raising money for the Royal British Legion. Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
23 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

Long time (normally) a winter lurker. Would it be possible for one of you esteemed members to decipher the latest models and put some money on a forecast. I'm cycling from Kent to Somerset Saturday and need a dry tailwind. Sorry mods, it's raising money for the Royal British Legion. Thanks 

Doesn't look too windy unfortunately. Looks showery so hopefully it dodges you. 

1618844105_gfseuw-14-126(1).thumb.png.f8b49cbe3d3ab4a48827e4d5bb76ff83.png

317644795_gfseuw-2-126(4).thumb.png.63db34b33c912b2223b54e0826b4ce42.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

It happened once I think. Might have been the end of July 1886.

Oh, Mary, this London's a wonderful sight
With people here working by day and by night
They don't sow potatoes, nor barley nor wheat
But there' gangs of them digging for gold in the streets
At least when I asked them that's what I was told
So I just took a hand at this diggin' for gold
But for all that I found there I might as well be
Where the Mountains of Mourne sweep down to the sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

I'd like to quote a small interesting section from NON-RAMPER PJB's latest post on UKWW

"Most likely outcome at this stage is that the weak cold front will move into Wales, NW England towards SW England as a very weak feature with the trough axis of the 850mb Theta-W plume which is advecting north into CS & SE Southern England (18-20C) likely to then be destabilised by the approaching upper trough, Increased ascent and vorticity and Thunderstorms will develop across N & NW France or the Bay of Biscay and move and develop as they cross the Channel into CS England and SE England largely routed to the steering flow layer at 850mb-900mb, These moving NNE across CS England into London, SE England. Storms could be highly electric, produce significant C/G Lightning."

Well well well what do we have here? 

Models for significant weather continue to push this kind of agenda. 

Screenshot_20210614_150206.thumb.jpg.b88a47b386c557ebcdea5969cef1cee1.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150224.thumb.jpg.150263e2ea590d67d77a312360104949.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150239.thumb.jpg.c75dea06333ed7156330ca86877e0669.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150258.thumb.jpg.f524aa9258b3fbdf5e9d43df4332e71e.jpg

Screenshot_20210614_150309.thumb.jpg.ed620a7e81ccca115bc84e98b0d3a3bb.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150349.thumb.jpg.162fc3d542513561611194063a498eef.jpgScreenshot_20210614_150405.thumb.jpg.37e050ddf91c50b13696d83a2b3190a8.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
4 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

NetWx-MR going for a late party, would eat her it at night

Not sure what went on there, meant, would be great to happen at night 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Not sure what went on there, meant, would be great to happen at night 

It did sound a bit......dodgy? 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

If you are sick to the back teeth of the recent heat, then relief  to more pleasant temperatures is on the way:

image.thumb.png.7d67a9ec7b658d73d06d1c23c060c90a.pngimage.thumb.png.4352fe104fafcf3850c053023c63e7d1.png

Not turning cold for most by any stretch, just something closer to the average for late June. High teens/low twenties instead of mid to high twenties.

Max temp today 17 degrees, we already have cool air, just SE seeing notably warm conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.382144bbdb24976360a26e52db730734.png
 

UKMO looking thundery into Friday as another low moves up from France 

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