Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

And now the GFS is suggesting that we in the SE might not see any sub5C T850s at all?  

    

[Man With Beard]

This point on the GFS, D9, captures the essence of the ECM ensembles this morning 

The trend today is for a block to take hold to the east, and Atlantic troughs to find no way through.

If this indeed is the trend, it will make for a fascinating second half of June as await whether the UK is the trough destination, or whether the UK sits just to the east in the thundery zone. Trends today pointing to the latter.

A very hot couple of weeks coming up for central Europe, it seems.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h shows warmth persisting across the SE even by next Friday?!...and before that it’s a very warm / hot / humid spell for the SE Quadrant.. ...forgive me, I’ve been drinking cider...it gives me special powers..quite intoxicating actually. . ..

 

 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

4 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies 

Yes, those look pretty good and back up what some of us have been saying about what is likely to come down the track in even the vaguely foreseeable.  There seems no signal for a resurgence from the Atlantic at the moment, and this is suggested, tentatively, by GloSea5 too.

Geopotential height 500 first, Jul-Sep, and Sep-Nov for comparison:

Looking good here, but notice that the probability of higher heights is greater in the earlier plot, suggesting that the signal is stronger in the months summer lovers want it i.e. July and August rather than September.  

2m temperature, here terciles and outer quintiles:

Again very promising for a decent summer, with a decent probability of the hottest outer quintile. 

Precipitation:

Less clear, but higher probability of low precipitation.

So, to kind of sum that up, looks like increased chances of high pressure dominated summer, well we’re seeing that now anyway, potential for heat, some potential for plumes, I would suggest, but within an overall drier than average pattern.  

 

[DAVID SNOW]

27 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

This point on the GFS, D9, captures the essence of the ECM ensembles this morning 

The trend today is for a block to take hold to the east, and Atlantic troughs to find no way through.

If this indeed is the trend, it will make for a fascinating second half of June as await whether the UK is the trough destination, or whether the UK sits just to the east in the thundery zone. Trends today pointing to the latter.

A very hot couple of weeks coming up for central Europe, it seems.

 

Interesting it is, next week looking very good with the warmth hanging on and the models toying with some storms too, perhaps only for the South East mind.

Long way out of course, but i'm optimistic.

[Mike Poole]

GEM at T132, hmmm!

Could be fireworks here…Thursday next week looking very interesting…

[Djdazzle]

Let’s hope the westward corrections continue!

[minus10]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM at T132, hmmm!

Could be fireworks here…Thursday next week looking very interesting…

Yes Gfs12z has considerable storm risk from Wednesday onwards

Storm potential definately increasing on the models....could be interesting period for storm fans (including me)..

[Methuselah]

Not wanting to exaggerate too much, but I like the GFS 12Z. I like it very much! 

    

    

    

[Man With Beard]

Bloomin heck ... apart from @bluearmy, who saw that coming? Atlantic annihilation on the ECM between T96 and T144, back in the continental flow

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM not quite as far south and west with the trough than GEM, here both T144:

[Kentspur]

28 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes Gfs12z has considerable storm risk from Wednesday onwards

Storm potential definately increasing on the models....could be interesting period for storm fans (including me)..

This chart typifies a typical storm event clouds build over Kent but no storm, then as soon as it crosses the thames/and goes further west BOOM. My timehop reminds me this time a few years ago was some cracking storm in Essex

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, looks sparky!

[sheikhy]

Wow what is going on this evening!!this extension of heat keeps upgrading!!!!didnt expect to see that much of an upgrade on ecm!!?

[Methuselah]

And the GEFS temperature ensembles (for over here at least) have gone doolally . . . up and down like a fiddler’s elbow !

    

Edited June 12, 2021 by Cakie
It was a bit crass. Gets the message across just the same

[Mike Poole]

Well that’s an interesting end to the ECM op run, for sure, T240:

I’ll just leave that there, as there is a lot of uncertainty in the previous few days, of course.  

But I will say this, I am strongly of the view that when this current pattern breaks down, which may well be thundery, the high pressure will build back in again…that’s my forecast…we will see…

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the ECM 12z operational, if you can’t stand the heat...get out of the Sarf East! ...phew it’s a hot sticky run for the most part across the SE init! ⛈ ? 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

Seems we’re witnessing, as I suspected some days ago, a classic case of GFS overdoing the AAM drop associated with the declining part of the cycle, causing it to stubbornly predict a long-lived trough over the UK, only to start backing that west and introducing Scandinavia height rises nearer the time, as it slowly catches on to a reality that sees AAM only fall modestly, to near neutral, before climbing again.

This has a 2018 feel to it - but the low heights to our northwest were exceptionality deep and persistent that June-July, while this time around they don’t look to be as extraordinary.

That suggests we don’t see such lengthy Azores-Scandinavia ridge linkups this summer - instead, settled spells punctuated by the sort of destabilising plume setups that ECM now shows two of in the next week.

[Guest]

Well I’m not exactly sure what is going on but contained within the GFS and GEM ensembles there are some truly staggeringly hot members. In fact almost of all the extended GEM members reach 20C at 850mb at one time or another and the mean stays around 12/13C right through to the end. GFS has a massive 24C spread in just 9 or so days, that’s probably the largest spread I’ve ever seen in 19years of model watching. We really could be anywhere in a week or so from flooding under a stagnant trough to record breaking June heat, absolutely crazy.....

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I’m not exactly sure what is going on but contained within the GFS and GEM ensembles there are some truly staggeringly hot members. In fact almost of all the extended GEM members reach 20C at 850mb at one time or another and the mean stays around 12/13C right through to the end. GFS has a massive 24C spread in just 9 or so days, that’s probably the largest spread I’ve ever seen in 19years of mod watching. We really could be anywhere in a week or so from flooding under a stagnant trough to record breaking June heat, absolutely crazy.....

I would agree. I’ve been model watching since 2003, in the short to mid term this could be the craziest ensemble I’ve ever seen. 24c difference from top to bottom at day 9. Loads of hot ones, loads of cool ones. Simply crazy!!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I would agree. I’ve been model watching since 2003, in the short to mid term this could be the craziest ensemble I’ve ever seen. 24c difference from top to bottom at day 9. Loads of hot ones, loads of cool ones. Simply crazy!!

I think we can narrow that down a bit, because that chart is ridiculous!  AAM etc, suggest we should focus on the hot ones, I would suggest, supported by the long range models.  

[Man With Beard]

44 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Seems we’re witnessing, as I suspected some days ago, a classic case of GFS overdoing the AAM drop associated with the declining part of the cycle, causing it to stubbornly predict a long-lived trough over the UK, only to start backing that west and introducing Scandinavia height rises nearer the time, as it slowly catches on to a reality that sees AAM only fall modestly, to near neutral, before climbing again.

This has a 2018 feel to it - but the low heights to our northwest were exceptionality deep and persistent that June-July, while this time around they don’t look to be as extraordinary.

That suggests we don’t see such lengthy Azores-Scandinavia ridge linkups this summer - instead, settled spells punctuated by the sort of destabilising plume setups that ECM now shows two of in the next week.

I've been trying to avoid the 2018 comparison ... but the vanishing low to the SW act was common that year, as in many recent years 

Looks too cloudy and stormy Thursday to Saturday to get particularly high temperatures on ECM, but nights are going to be less comfortable as the week goes on.

30C still just about possible tomorrow, and could be exceeded Wednesday.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves. 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Not the first time 850s this hot have verified. Last time we were under crazy 24C uppers was for about three days and temps at the surface were lower than the 850s themselves. 

Remember this - we had 850s above 20c and the max for the day was about 28c in SW England due to a cold undercut from the east.

[summer blizzard]

The GFS run is certainly notable but more so for the rainfall it produces. It starts then simply does not stop.