Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well the anomalies for one have been hinting at a stalling trough recently,  courtesy of the block to the NE, as illustrated again this morning, But the detail is a long way from being sorted.

As I’ve been hinting for some time ......‘I’ve been expecting you mr bond’ 

but I’ve seen too many swings back and forth to think that this will simply play out like this mornings euro modelling 

[carinthian]

On 31/05/2021 at 14:16, carinthian said:

One of the Italian channels shown in Austria has a weather presenter dressed in military air force uniform ( wearing medals, stripes and big cap ). He presents his forecast which shows graphics with the aid of a big stick. So , pay attention ! Not having understood a word he said, he seemed to be talking about the big heat developing over North Africa and was indicating the transfer NW into much of Europe and the UK by day 10. Read what you may into that but his modeling was showing that !

C

Maybe the Italian Air force Officer weather guys stick is a magic wand !

C

[Eagle Eye]

Icon showing the band to the East of the main rain band building up in NE France and the lowland countries in high CAPE conditions and moving into the SE. 

GEM

Having watched back I do see that it comes up from the lowland countries. 

GFS

 

You can see what builds to the side of the band that hits most of southern England and moves north(sorry, it might be a bit too fast) probably hasa the best chance of being an imported storm but does look good for homegrown storms earlier as well. 

E. E

 

 

[johnholmes]

Saturday 12 June and a look at how the upper pattern looks now and the 500 mb anomaly predictions 6-10 days ahead

How much change during this past week?

Ec=Now shows an azores centre with no longer a flat atlantic flow into the uk but a fairly marked trough down the w’ern side to Iberia

Noaa also has the azores ridge, well a small +ve height area and the trough in the uk area extending south, a bit more rounded than ec. So both have quite clearly moved in their predicted patterns, both similar, both have shown this for s couple of outputs, so the 6-10 day upper pattern looks fairly well set. Our actual weather detail as usual from the synoptic outputs, how warm/chilly, wet/dry etc.

Just to illustrate what differences there currently are in the upper air from now to the predicted 6-10 day outlook, see the Net Wx 500 mb flow for 00z today, beneath the two predicted outputs.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

GFS chart viewer

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Edited June 12, 2021 by johnholmes

[Methuselah]

Interesting GFS 00Z this morning: lots of betty swollocks in store!

    

    

    

Very consistent with the theory that we're more and more likely to see extreme heat, over continental areas, with time?

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Maybe the Italian Air force Officer weather guys stick is a magic wand !

C

A noteable heatwave across the pond later next week, ECM has upper 30s in parts of Germany by Friday. 

In case anyone was wondering, 0 out of 51 ECM ensembles back the extreme heat into the UK, so we can more or less write that off. Indeed, the ECM op was close to being the hottest run for Thursday/Friday in the ensemble set. Interestingly though, far from the hottest on Saturday.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Methuselah]

GEFS temperature ensembles for Suffolk:      Soz, can't get the 2m temps.

[Frosty.]

For sure, the ECM 0z ensemble mean is even warmer, for longer than last evenings 12z?...and as for the op! ...sensational for heat and humidity plus thundery potential further s / se...longevity and intensity upgrades!!..could be quite the El Scorchio week ahead for the SE! ⛈ ? ? ....not good for sleeping though with some very warm sticky nights with temps not far off 21c minima in London? ...  

 

[Methuselah]

I'd estimate the chances of our finally doing away with the June 13 'enigma' as being around 50% . . . so, it'll be touch-and-go!

    

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'd estimate the chances of our finally doing away with the June 13 'enigma' as being around 50% . . . so, it'll be touch-and-go!

    

Have to say I think chances are probably less. Max 850’s I can find are 12-13C and increasing through the day. In 2018 we recorded 31C at Bournemouth airport under 850s of 12-13C but that was after no rain for 6weeks and a relatively warm airmass already in place at the surface. I think max temps tomorrow will be in the 27-28C range, might even struggle to break the daily record with I think is 28.3C, even the ever optimistic Arpege only has 28C. Monday also looks a bit toned down (bit like today, 2-3 days ago remember we were looking at 27-28C for today) 

[Djdazzle]

58 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Have to say I think chances are probably less. Max 850’s I can find are 12-13C and increasing through the day. In 2018 we recorded 31C at Bournemouth airport under 850s of 12-13C but that was after no rain for 6weeks and a relatively warm airmass already in place at the surface. I think max temps tomorrow will be in the 27-28C range, might even struggle to break the daily record with I think is 28.3C, even the ever optimistic Arpege only has 28C. Monday also looks a bit toned down (bit like today, 2-3 days ago remember we were looking at 27-28C for today) 

You don’t need a long dry spell to squeeze more from 850s, maybe except when going for really high temps.

[Methuselah]

Whilst the initial heat/humidity looks like hanging around a wee bit longer than was initially thought (especially down here) the 06Z does make more of the cooler, more comfortable interlude, it also goes on to banish the 0C isotherm to the Arctic Circle. 

    

    

    

PS: On further reflection, I think @Alderc may in fact be correct, in that my 50-50 guess regarding tomorrow's max was a tad overoptimistic.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

There’s plenty of warmth in the Gfs 6z op..DUH! .. ...there’s plenty of thundery rain potential to.. ...hey, it’s better than May init!  

[bluearmy]

Gefs are a slight drift towards the euro solution 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs are a slight drift towards the euro solution 

Hope you’re right, I luv the euro (ECM) solution..prolonged heat..yay! .. ..wow guys, I’m saying this and I don’t even live in the SE...I must be crazy?  ..

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GES 06Z temperature ensembles are an improvement, as the 'cold' T850s seem to be being continually watered down:

    

[mb018538]

Truly awful 6z run. Less said the better!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies 

[thestixx]

11 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS july and august 500hpa anomalies 

Wow. If these were to verify is it correct to presume it could be a vintage summer ala '76 '95 etc?

[Bradley in Kent]

Say if they do verify July would be very plumey and great for any heat lovers in the SE. 

August would be agreeable for more of the UK but no intense heat could be a bit Northerly at times.

If only we could have more charts like August in Winter!

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS 6z mean isn’t so bad..there’s ridge potential there.. ...well at least it ain’t troughy..is troughy even a word? ...I have hopes that by late June we will be back on track? ...why am I even saying this when there’s a heatwave developing for the sarf east? ..I should seriously consider leaving castle black and moving to kings landing..would be a lot warmer!.  

 

 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Truly awful 6z run. Less said the better!

It’s a great run..initially.. ..try some reverse psychology....try saying that  word when you’ve a had a few!!!!!!.. cheers gang...the mean is better, honestly,...summer isn’t over!!!  ..   

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Late June May..(don’t mention May Frosty..crap weather month this year)!!...... ...there’s some summery potential for late June in the GEFS 6z! ......heck, there’s plenty of summery weather for the next week further SE!!!!!!!!!...I really should move there..  

 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

As I’ve been hinting for some time ......‘I’ve been expecting you mr bond’ 

but I’ve seen too many swings back and forth to think that this will simply play out like this mornings euro modelling 

Indeed........Slight changes with the ridge/trough alignment could easily impact the airmass characteristics over the UK

[Captain Shortwave]

The models are certainly eying up the possibility of pushing an area of very warm/unstable air towards the U.K. Wednesday night, it would likely result in elevated showers/thunderstorms (Most likely towards the South eastern half of the UK. 

Unsure if 30c could be reached during the day, like tomorrow we may end up falling just short. Beyond this, the UKMO throws up another ridge with a cold pool maintained to the south west of the U.K.

 

We await the GFS, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the current American solution is too quick at moving that trough east over the U.K.