Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No surprise GFS the deepest, hopefully it's wrong

[Man With Beard]

ECM 12Z op has a *raw* 30C on Wednesday

[sheikhy]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

ECM 12Z op has a *raw* 30C on Wednesday

Does it extend the warmth like ukmo and gfs for central and eastern england?!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

I think the problem low is away as fast as it comes on this one.  It would have to be as deep as GFS to really scupper things.

JMA similar to UKMO at T72, and at T144:

Maybe a faster clearance and better build back of high pressure on this one.  I’d bet on something between ECM and UKMO, I think.  GFS has overblown the thing, which as @I remember Atlantic 252 correctly states above, it has well got form for this!!!!

Edit: ECM T192:

That will do nicely.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Does it extend the warmth like ukmo and gfs for central and eastern england?!!

Hot all the way in the south east and very warm through the whole of England except Cumbria (if you zoom on London there's a 30C)

[Frosty.]

Ok guys, I’m going to bury my head in the sand and pretend all the GEFS 12z members look like this for late June! ....just to maintain the feel good factor of the extended heat and then thundery potential next week! ⛈....there’s certainly some Flaming June conditions expected during the next 5 days or so, particularly for the s / se....hopefully a recurring pattern for the next 3 months!!!! 

 

ps..should I curb my enthusiasm?  

 

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Still looks like we might be headed for a thermal rollercoaster?      

Edited June 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Paul]

UKV 15z pumping the heat back up on Wednesday:

And also showing hints of some thundery showers later in the day - something to watch. 

For anyone who missed it - there's a selection of UKV charts available freely here:

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Frosty.]

I like how the ECM 12z operational delivers an encore....actually there’s a lot I like about the current spell with upgrades to the longevity of the heat  and thundery fireworks potential next midweek?, ⛈  I would like it even more if I lived in the southeast instead of up here in cold and snowy castle black!    

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

Hey folks! How’s it going?  

Very good start to summer, I think.  But where next?  I’m assuming we come through the GFS wobble next week unscathed, because it is probably nonsense.  

Here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 1 looks like that GFS run, Cluster 2 could be more plume-like (although not quite right position-wise), Cluster 3 Azores says no and the settled weather resumes.  

I would be surprised at any signal for a prolonged UK trough as I said earlier, with AAM forecast to remain high, this sort of output looks wrong to me:

And if we can surmise that the high pressure will hold more than some models are suggesting, then there is the positive feedback loop from the SSTs, which have finally swung in our favour:

Anything (like this) that reinforces the Azores UK link in summer is beneficial.  So I think, yes some unsettled interludes, but they are interludes against a generally settled warm sunny pattern, which might get better rather than worse, as we move into July.

All the best, Mike

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey folks! How’s it going?  

Very good start to summer, I think.  But where next?  I’m assuming we come through the GFS wobble next week unscathed, because it is probably nonsense.  

Here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 1 looks like that GFS run, Cluster 2 could be more plume-like (although not quite right position-wise), Cluster 3 Azores says no and the settled weather resumes.  

I would be surprised at any signal for a prolonged UK trough as I said earlier, with AAM forecast to remain high, this sort of output looks wrong to me:

And if we can surmise that the high pressure will hold more than some models are suggesting, then there is the positive feedback loop from the SSTs, which have finally swung in our favour:

Anything (like this) that reinforces the Azores UK link in summer is beneficial.  So I think, yes some unsettled interludes, but they are interludes against a generally settled warm sunny pattern, which might get better rather than worse, as we move into July.

All the best, Mike

That AAM forecast on victor gensinis website isn’t updating properly - the chart you’ve posted above is from 3rd June where it has got stuck. A smaller fall back to neutral/just below in around a week is forecast.

[Mike Poole]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That AAM forecast on victor gensinis website isn’t updating properly - the chart you’ve posted above is from 3rd June where it has got stuck. A smaller fall back to neutral/just below in around a week is forecast.

Oops, thanks, didn’t notice that!  Maybe I shouldn’t have been quite so bullish, we will see…

Edited June 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean shows the very warm / hot and increasingly humid conditions persisting across the SE through to next wed / thurs?, it even suggests the warmth making a bit of a comeback near the end following a relatively cooler / fresher few days?..as the operational did!...anyway, there’s plenty of very summery weather to come during the next 5 days or so, away from the far NW / N...especially hot further s / se (potential low 30’s c) and support for a thundery breakdown too...I always like hot spells to go out with a BANG rather than a whimper!!! ⛈ ? 

 

[JeffC]

2 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

Hot all the way in the south east and very warm through the whole of England except Cumbria (if you zoom on London there's a 30C)

Pleased to live in Cumbria!!

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

UKV 15z pumping the heat back up on Wednesday:

And also showing hints of some thundery showers later in the day - something to watch. 

For anyone who missed it - there's a selection of UKV charts available freely here:

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

It's fantastic news that these charts are free to view now - massive thanks to the NW team.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS only 58% rolled out and looks good with the green snotty trough getting pushed back a couple of days

[PiscesStar]

6 hours ago, JeffC said:

Pleased to live in Cumbria!!

Pleased to

Wish I could swap as the gfs shows us catching all. The heat here. I don't want it at all. 

[Frosty.]

Late June on the Gfs 0z operational!! ? ....as for next week, the peak of the heat / humidity is Wednesday with thunderstorm potential but really, parts of the SE could be hitting 30c between tomorrow and midweek ?!

 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Jon Snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

384 now in GFS range, Djokovic to open up in heat?

[mb018538]

Wednesday and Thursday look explosive on the ecm today. Heat and massive instability pushing up from the south. If storms are your scene then midweek could be epic:

[Man With Beard]

The Atlantic has got derailed on this mornings ECM. Much of the UK is still in the very warm continental air by next Saturday morning:

 

[clark3r]

If you add the usual couple of degrees on gfs max wednesday has the potential to hit 32 in London, interested to see runs this eve, enjoy 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

The Atlantic has got derailed on this mornings ECM. Much of the UK is still in the very warm continental air by next Saturday morning:

 

The stuff dreams are made off from ecm this morning if you like heat!!the classic extension of a hot spell that i have seen every now and then over the years!!its like the atlantic finding it hard to breakdown the cold in winter!!!

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

The Atlantic has got derailed on this mornings ECM. Much of the UK is still in the very warm continental air by next Saturday morning:

 

Who’d have thought ?

 More swings to come on the modelling I would think ......

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Who’d have thought ?

..

Well the anomalies for one have been hinting at a stalling trough recently,  courtesy of the block to the NE, as illustrated again this morning, But the detail is a long way from being sorted.