Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[mb018538]

ECM extended range clusters from day 10-15 don't look too disastrous this morning. Cooler with a W/NW flow, but no trough stuck over the UK. Could be worse.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 0z mean into late June, there’s no strong signal for either unsettled or settled, something of a middle ground perhaps which would mean a north / south - northwest / southeast split which would be pretty normal?...this certainly doesn’t preclude an anticyclone building in over the u k following a more average period, or even something very unsettled and much cooler, the ensembles are a real mixed bag beyond the sunny surge of June heat! ? ⛈ ️ ️ ? 

[sheikhy]

Interesting 06z gfs!pushes wednesdays plume further west again!!!

[Paul]

@Nick F has looked in depth at the heat this weekend and breakdown next week in his latest blog (including the potential for storms). 

Analysis: Heat this weekend before a breakdown next week

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A strong ridge of high pressure building in from the Azores this weekend will culminate in very warm or hot Sunday, but gradually cooling off next week and turning increasingly unsettled from mid-week.

 

[Scorcher]

The likelihood of warmth persisting into midweek and possibly beyond is increasing it seems. Thankfully the latest GFS run keeps the green colours away from most of us.

[Methuselah]

From the GFS 06Z:      

                                       

                                       

So the trough, and its associated 'cold' air might stay a tad further west than previously thought, allowing for further pulses of warm air from the south? And then, it all gets swallowed up anyway? I hope -- given the fact that it's all 15-days' into the future!

[Frosty.]

If anything, to my weary untrained eyes ?  ? ...the GEFS 6z mean longer term is an improvement compared to the 0z in terms of fine weather potential!..the mean shows better ridging and there are more in the way of settled perturbations..even some heat potential! ...not wanting to mislead anyone into thinking the longer term outlook is peachy..just saying there’s an improvement! ...in the meantime, enjoy the flaming June..cheers  ! ? 

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles might  be suggestive of a more 'cyclical' spell setting up; potentially very warm or hot snaps interspersed with something a tad cooler?

Suffolk:         

 

 

[summer blizzard]

With regards to the 0z runs a good point was made above that in all the breakdown excitement many of us missed that the second low for wednesday has slowed down, drawing up 10C+uppers ahead of it briefly. The GFS and Euro then move the low through while the GEM dissolves the low and stalls the breakdown (though they all slow the low approaching at the weekend).

 

vs (entirely different setup as a low forms from our south)

The GFS6z did also move a little towards the GEM in stalling that breakdown to Thursday before then moving back inline with the Euro for the weekend low. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs out to 120 hours and looks identical to the 06z if not better in regards to extending the heat slightly to wednesday!!also the potential is now there for some thundery imports from france and at a very favourable angle for the uk as well!hope it stays that way!

[Methuselah]

Could that be a heat low for next Thursday morning?        

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Could that be a heat low for next Thursday morning?        

A what?!?!?

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could that be a heat low for next Thursday morning?        

[Ben Sainsbury]

An exceptional UKMO, heat hanging onto eastern areas even on Thursday!

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

A what?!?!?

Essentially a shortwave that forms to our south sometimes during a breakdown and moves north if the primary low is sufficiently stalled.

[StormChaseUK]

Thursday it could go bang in a big way with that dividing line between moist atlantic air and heat from the South.    knife edge stuff

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

A what?!?!?

Unstable shallow thundery low that forms just to the south and tracks into the North Sea

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z really suggests we might need an arc with its handling of the weekend low (more like the GEM0z) - self interest though, wet French GP potential. 

GEM12z is very similar to the GFS/Euro 0z runs.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS12z really suggests we might need an arc with its handling of the weekend low (more like the GEM0z) - self interest though, wet French GP potential. 

GEM12z is very similar to the GFS/Euro 0z runs.

Goodness, GFS dumps over 100mm in parts of the south from next Saturday in just 3 or 4 days. July 2007 style!

[Djdazzle]

At that range, highly unlikely.

The models have already extended the warmth next week, so they ate struggling beyond T96 at the moment.

[Methuselah]

But at least it'll be mild!        

[Britneyfan]

Surely that will feel super humid? 

[Mike Poole]

Looking at the models, it is clear that a trough of some sort is going to impact UK, but the difference between the models at T144 is quite marked actually:

GFS looking nasty, as indeed it becomes in later frames, but UKMO makes little of the feature, others in between.  Difficult plotting a course past this point until we get a little more clarity on how this pans out.  I’m going with UKMO, I think it is more in line with background signals - I see nothing there to suggest we are moving to a persistent UK trough pattern anytime soon.  AAM (CFS prediction) still remains high for longer than that:

If ECM backs UKMO, I would strongly favour that solution, not long to wait.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

From the GFS 12Z:

At T+120, a 'subtle' contrast in airmasses?      

At T+207 . . . YIKES!                                               

At T+360:                                                                

I'm getting the feeling that Summer 2021 could be memorable? More so than 2002, anywho!

[Mike Poole]

It’s all about the low in the Atlantic at T72, here’s the big three:

GFS the deepest, UKMO the shallowest, and ECM somewhere in the middle at this point.