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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
14 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

*we* …speak for yourself mate! 

Enjoy reading all the posts you make…but can’t agree here.

You keep telling us we don’t need heat. (You sound like my 69 year old Grandad)
I’ve had average June temperatures today with drizzle, average June temperatures tomorrow with heavy rain! If I had a whole Summer of this I certainly wouldn’t call It a good Summer.

If it’s average June temperatures alongside sunshine galore then great…but it won’t be. (That’s @Alderc point on the output he mentioned) 

I don’t want stuff like this (charts below) to become reality. 

EC46: 21/06 to 28/06 - average temperatures alongside this rubbish.

3D6D8045-B33E-4EF6-BF53-98FCC69CEEA7.thumb.png.25fea1794156e90f1432184189f4300f.pngAED7F869-CF10-48CB-A1CB-FD72E8D5322C.thumb.png.e589ca7162cf2eb1bc6d43aa51f7fb6d.png

 
Heat is what makes a Summer special - hence the excitement over local/regional/national records during the season. 
Nine times out of ten heat brings the top tier thunderstorms (or it used to in the SE ) Other areas seem to benefit more nowadays!

I know we all want different types of Summer weather but for me personally…average temperatures can sod off unless it’s going to be prolonged sunshine.

I am on here in Summer solely looking for heat/heatwaves, decent convective weather and any extreme weather type in general.

Some of the lads on this forum (reading different threads) don’t go out the house if temperatures are over 25C for fear of melting - it’s bonkers!    
Totally respect that though…we are all different. 

We register 30C+ up here in most Summer’s nowadays - maybe my bar has been set too high.  

Anyways…bring on the heat. (At some point/stage up here!   

Fair play to @Tamara - living the perfect Summer dream.

All the best!

It certainly is possible though to get lots of dry sunny weather with average temperatures if the synoptic set up is right. A set up with high pressure centred just to the west of the UK with the main flow from the north-west should probably achieve this, maybe temperatures would be a bit below average at night though.
 

I am one of those who doesn’t like the heat, I’m not as bad as some people on here but I really don’t like it when it goes above 25°. That said I hate cloudy, cool damp summers as well. A nice sunny 20°C suits me much better. Much more comfortable.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Is classing model output in the second half of June as dire with supporting charts showing low teen maxes moaning? I think thats a pretty accurate assessment to be honest. 

It won’t happen - not backed up by the anomalies.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think the second half / last third of June is still up for grabs?, sure it’s mixed but there’s some summery stuff in the mix, and the mid range doesn’t look too bad either according to the GEFS 6z mean?...in the meantime ...enjoy the very warm / hot weekend coming up for the majority! ☀️ ....it may well be that the longer term outlook is quite respectable for the time of year away from NW Britain?...in the meantime..just look at P12!  

AE7F1BB9-EB19-40E1-B64F-4CB18197772B.thumb.png.19bc0ed7e9e08ec200d26a478f8894dc.png33E2D934-F171-4C16-BDC2-CB25EEC870ED.thumb.png.46695391e900b850432687bd4c81379f.png2388985B-3A08-452F-B35E-F7D67EA7C625.thumb.png.239025fe630e6f3c1ac768b72c84e7c5.png7CD1399A-FABB-46BB-935E-AAF030AEC356.thumb.png.65635a9d9ab1396936b7e6c62a389caa.png690CF85F-6042-4BB7-8574-EFBF877806CA.thumb.png.d92eb1dbc7b27cbddf81e35e53f93b14.png886284F1-E73D-4613-9B93-2E5A7FC49B05.thumb.png.9015652d8a876aa4f0aec1ffa0808e50.png

  

8D465E92-E31A-4239-8006-E4C7E9625999.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Can we keep it friendly or at least respectful in here please. And also remember that it's the model thread - there's another thread for moaning. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

For south east Friday looks very warm 27 degree or 28, Saturday maybe be cooler dependant on cloud 26 maybe, Sunday 29 or 30 possible maybe 31 Monday that’s the latest gfs run 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS and UKMO head downhill rapidly next week. I know I've tried to push the anomalies, but something has to give.

Its not that bad mate!!!!just had a look at both!!ukmo warm till 144 hours especially for england!!gfs out to 168 hours and still okay!!!could av been a heck of a lot worse!!also hardly any rain from both models as far as they have updated?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Yes, it could be worse. But Azores high a long way back in the Atlantic, and negatively tilted. That's not a great place to be going forward for summer prospects.

image.thumb.png.2a6c8233733198fb8c6b852891ddb27e.png

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS and UKMO head downhill rapidly next week. I know I've tried to push the anomalies, but something has to give.

Pretty sure you’re not allowed to post a comment like that.....

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Pretty sure you’re not allowed to post a comment like that.....

OK, it's only GFS, but it is a poor run from midweek next week onwards, especially the further north you are. If people are happy with that, then so be it.

I just want to start a bit of a discussion, as the anomalies were not suggesting a trough dominated pattern for the UK.

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2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Yes its moaning and inaccurate.

You posted one chart showing a predicted cool day... that doesnt mean the whole of the second half of June is "dire" ... but maybe youve not been around long enough to have experienced a truely "dire" June .

Not sure how you can actually say that. I was responding to someone else single post who said the synoptic situation looked decent. I disagreed with supporting evidence - that’s it not sure I mentioned the second half of June looked dire. 
 

Might have suggested in other posted we could end up in a tricky place later in June again with supporting ensembles, again the output this justifies those concerns. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The second half / last third of June doesn’t have to be bad!?, it isn’t written in the stars or set in stone that June 2021 will nose dive into the toilet..  (sounds painful..and smelly!). ... ... after the current summery spell according to the GEFS 12z?

Where there is despair, let me bring hope!! ...with a few cherries!!    ☀️

5DE674E7-CDB3-4C40-A270-1EDBCB14B83E.thumb.png.0e7672e09898afab9ebaacfb092bb62a.pngB0894E1E-0A22-41D7-969B-F5A9EA6FC12B.thumb.png.b2e882e99c39bbe861c0ffa26949ada6.png4102FE6E-E591-41F3-85DC-1FC6B5E2A963.thumb.png.96e44a4b91bac36e43e0567a82edf679.png1BC0CD67-A19A-4538-B01C-FC4E0A87DA84.thumb.png.b6cd589d5ee9b999ec903670f9fb7837.png82B58BC6-C52A-4B07-B21E-458E83D63963.thumb.png.e84aedcee2a1a16e545db709f9ec9543.png17A534DF-8116-4837-B3DB-8AD86DC8D5BA.thumb.png.646261f40988bf09cc5313896943dc70.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or ecm an upgrade between 96 and 144 hours!!!❤

It looks that way. Let's see where it goes later on.

Although I said earlier that the models weren't looking great after midweek, I'm still by no means convinced that they are correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

ECM 12z bringing back the warmer air somewhat at day 10 after a cooler insertion at day 9. Although how long it remains.. ?

image.thumb.png.91cbdca15d37cc7d042a16e3d8de4109.png

Depends if some more hp can be squeezed out from the displaced Azores....

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM back to a hotter solution for much of England Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday, maintaining the dividing line a little higher up the country than in the last two runs. As a result, 4 days from Sunday where 27-30C is possible. 

No doubt this dividing line will continue to meander in the next few runs.

A Wednesday breakdown from the west gaining momentum

Edited by Man Without Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England

Is the Azores always dry and sunny? It’s always under high pressure!

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
10 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

Here it is…(looks quite wet at times also - especially N/W/SW UK)

ECM:

Next Thursday:

10A4465D-5DA7-43E2-A382-7C5C99893911.thumb.jpeg.3f8362f0f4b823aa0476dd0910a26cc2.jpeg
 

Friday:

B64330B7-4848-4851-A611-953A27B38837.thumb.jpeg.87d281032a29e7e600d19fc4cd30a5f5.jpeg
 

Saturday:

1D3EFADC-D836-4CBA-8F5A-A4C3A843E6FA.thumb.jpeg.d57cb73a4f9b995ccb5faca7c6af5e9c.jpeg
 

As ever the further South and East you are…the better for decent temperatures!

Back to this Sunday and next Monday.
30C looks a good shout on both days. (Current output)

UKV for Sunday 18:00

4EA57AD0-DBEB-47BE-A6EC-451F6B7F344D.thumb.png.7dff833ac5b8701b8973fff1aaca8b44.png
 

Monday 15:00

50A127D5-6A60-40DA-85A4-E5FA742363E4.thumb.png.19ce7f88d6d7a0110f6717011cbbb2ae.png
 

All the above subject too many changes at this timeframe. 
 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean for your viewing pleasure!..there’s a lot to like, extended warmth / heat like the op and even towards the end it looks decent enough away from the northwest!...enjoy ! ☀️ ⛅️ 
5D150620-3DF8-44A6-985E-99F3D63A5144.thumb.gif.e4b53f5ec1f893fa7f313e121c528f45.gif1CB43602-3496-4D88-A1A4-F6677002916D.thumb.gif.e793ef49222489e95acf60c973f0ca5b.gifBFDFA1DC-F6A9-46FC-8397-B78F6DCD89C8.thumb.gif.ebd57f4d44b26654c0bb23458df617d8.gif77D46945-8749-449A-8D8E-5106E22CE9DC.thumb.gif.2ee0284d74e0f28fe6dde367c593a2c0.gifD60A7C64-A1BB-4DC0-9DEC-7E77DE1014F1.thumb.gif.d82ce7acf781882bda5203c4519eea1d.gifB3BE894C-0C6B-43AF-A504-2DD8B5282FA8.thumb.gif.7742445798a3aa566ffe49ec9fa5f538.gif536BAD7E-7BF3-46CB-ADDC-B2AC5D3B9198.thumb.gif.a724239fc4c7bee1f602a858a8b7b35a.gif8F9CA3B4-3BBC-4755-9A96-BBB2B367B70C.thumb.gif.73b5c10ef2918586ba5bf3c04534858f.gif93C0433A-51CF-420D-A20E-E40D3690E4D9.thumb.gif.b60ae04ca61f4586c533d279d5d1213b.gifF12B1657-AA57-4706-9B6D-B8A9A47106A6.thumb.gif.33a8d49647b1b9b6fadac5862d17a7c5.gif03894A63-A30B-4FEB-A42F-CA879DAF8843.thumb.gif.cdf0df7d06505021a441e118fa5d0c34.gifAACC13D1-56FF-42EA-9D87-76FF2D555D9B.thumb.gif.4edc602bddf4f4b5085da3d4141194bb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

it has to be said that the anomalies are still sliding slowly towards a more unsettled spell.. sadly ...

 

610day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Okay, I'm always too keen to bring out the 'P' word, but what's that showing next Weds on ECM?

*Awaits the disappointment in the morning when it's all gone on the 00z...

Edited by Lance M
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