Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

GFS ensembles quickly become poor in the south beyond the 17th, many members 3-5C below average. 

The next couple of days have been watered down, the heat turned down at weekend and washed away by Tuesday and the longer term outlook starting to sketchy, not been a great trend in the last 24hrs IMO. 
 

Just noticed ECM has maxes of just 22-23C for Saturday what happened to the 28-29s for Friday and Saturday. Just goes to shown even 5-6daysout how wrong things can still be forecast.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Alderc

[Djdazzle]

Fair to say, all models have been really poor at even short range.

But I still expect temps to be modelled upwards at the weekend as it gets nearer.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Fair to say, all models have been really poor at even short range.

But I still expect temps to be modelled upwards at the weekend as it gets nearer.

Hope so as currently even Saturday looks cloudy according to them

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

It’s not the only one. GFS temps really, really disappointing for the entire weekend, its max temps. 
 

Sat - 24C

Sun - 27C

Mon - 27C only extreme south eastern parts. Birmingham only has a max of 19C for Monday. 

24 - 27c is really really disappointing?? We live in the UK not the med. To illustrate, Rome is forecast 27c for the next 2 days. The models might have trended away from what they were showing but 24 - 27 is still well above average for the UK.

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z ensembles don't look too nasty:       

                                                                                 

Things could be an awful lot worse, IMO:            

                                                                                     

 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hope so as currently even Saturday looks cloudy according to them

Decaying front heading south could be suppressing temps on some models. Depends how much it fragments and breaks I guess.

ARPEGE 27c - cloud breaking up as the day progresses


UKV 25/26c - not too much cloud either

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

24 - 27c is really really disappointing?? We live in the UK not the med. To illustrate, Rome is forecast 27c for the next 2 days. The models might have trended away from what they were showing but 24 - 27 is still well above average for the UK.

Given 24-36hrs ago it was widespread 27-30's opposed to more isolated, lower peaks I think it is disappointing especially for those outside the south east who will back down below average by Monday. 

[Guest]

GEM ensembles nowhere near as pessimistic as GFS's. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still a lot to iron out as to where things will be going past the weekend. I wouldn’t look much further beyond Sunday. Still a fair bit of chopping and changing going on as to how far away the warmth will be pushed, if at all. 

[Premiere Neige]

44 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Given 24-36hrs ago it was widespread 27-30's opposed to more isolated, lower peaks I think it is disappointing especially for those outside the south east who will back down below average by Monday. 

I'm a cold fan personally (although I enjoy warm weather in summer). I was disappointed by the easterly in February which was watered down and not that cold imo based on what the models had been showing prior to the event. Part of living in the UK i suppose! At least it's warm and sunny and not raining

[Frosty.]

From what I’ve seen it’s still a very warm / hot weekend coming up, the Gfs 0z op shows mid / upper 20’s c and I wouldn’t rule out somewhere across the SE seeing 30c or thereabouts. The ECM 0z op shows the 564 dam line never really leaving the south until beyond T+168 hours which is far better than last evenings 12z...hmmmmmm! ...all in all, it’s not bad for early June...unless you don’t like summery weather that is!!!! ? 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

You can see the ECM mean absolutely tank up here from Monday!  
850hPa temp then ends up at +1 by 18/06 - rubbish stuff for mid June!

Glasgow:

Further South it’s not that bad…until 18/06 - 850hPa temp of +4 on that day.

Sheffield:

 

London a wee bit better for 18/06 with 850hPa temp of +6…this dropping to +5 by 19/06.

So a pretty uninspiring week of weather for here next week - temperatures below to near average at times with one or two spells of rain/drizzle and lots of cloud for the most part. 
 You just have to laugh really. 

Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

Plenty of proper Summer weather before any of that - plus at this range no-one really has a clue what will arrive next week!
All we can do though is discuss what seems more probable from current models/charts/outlooks.

Sunday/Monday favoured for the highest maximum temperatures! 
Sunday the best chance of hitting the 30C and putting that old weather enigma to bed once and for all! (Heathrow/Northolt looking good)
Don’t want to hear anything about dodgy weather stations in those locations if it does happen! 
Every Summer it’s guaranteed once or twice - give us a break! 

All the best to everyone and enjoy the warmth/heat/sunshine for the most part through the rest of this week and into early next week. (At least)

Make the most of it for me at least! Some of us don’t have that luxury of Summer weather currently or for the foreseeable.  

 

Cheers! 

Edited June 9, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

You can see the ECM mean absolutely tank up here from Monday!  
850hPa temp then ends up at +1 by 18/06 - rubbish stuff for mid June!

Glasgow:

Further South it’s not that bad…until 18/06 - 850hPa temp of +4 on that day.

Sheffield:

 

London a wee bit better for 18/06 with 850hPa temp of +6…this dropping to +5 by 19/06.

So a pretty uninspiring week of weather for here next week - temperatures below to near average at times with one or two spells of rain/drizzle and lots of cloud for the most part. 
 You just have to laugh really. 

Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

Plenty of proper Summer weather before any of that - plus at this range no-one really has a clue what will arrive next week!
All we can do though is discuss what seems more probable from current models/charts/outlooks.

Sunday/Monday favoured for the highest maximum temperatures! 
Sunday the best chance of hitting the 30C and putting that old weather enigma to bed once and for all! (Heathrow/Northolt looking good)
Don’t want to hear anything about dodgy weather stations in those locations if it does happen! 
Every Summer it’s guaranteed once or twice - give us a break! 

All the best to everyone and enjoy the warmth/heat/sunshine for the most part through the rest of this week and into early next week. (At least)

Make the most of it for me at least! Some of us don’t have that luxury of Summer weather currently or for the foreseeable.  

 

Cheers! 

I was up in the Highlands in 1993, Mr. Frost. And that was shee-it!

[Methuselah]

GFS for Sunday looks okay. To me, at least:        

[mb018538]

Tuesday and Wednesday just about seeing a ridge hang on for dear life:



By Thursday some troughing close by looks likely. Impacts/rainfall etc not yet decided:



Anything beyond this well up in the air at the moment.

 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z at T+ 240 . . . and it's hardly Sheetmageddon!?

     

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 06Z at T+ 240 . . . and it's hardly Sheetmageddon!?

     

Looks pretty awful to me, low pressure about swing in, cloudy with fronts around.

[northwestsnow]

LOL Some things never change even in summer...

Let's talk up all the negatives like temps being 3 or 4 degrees lower than anticipated at the weekend( still very warm but let's not dwell on that).  and how  it looks more unsettled at day 10.

Does raise a chuckle.

 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks pretty awful to me, low pressure about swing in, cloudy with fronts around.

Doesn't everything look 'pretty awful' to you?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

I'm a cold fan personally (although I enjoy warm weather in summer). I was disappointed by the easterly in February which was watered down and not that cold imo based on what the models had been showing prior to the event. Part of living in the UK i suppose! At least it's warm and sunny and not raining

Apologies mods as it’s not current weather chat but have to disagree with that “Severe winter weather and storm Darcy, February 2021
The UK experienced a week of severe winter weather from 7 to 13 February, with easterly winds drawing a bitterly cold airflow from eastern Europe. Storm Darcy brought some strong winds and heavy snow to parts of south-east England on 7th, while persistent snow showers resulted in significant accumulations across eastern England and Scotland. Daytime temperatures struggled to rise above freezing, and, combined with the wind, resulted in severe wind-chill, particularly on the exposed east coast. Much of eastern Scotland experienced deep lying snow with depths in some places of 20 to 30cm or more. 11th/12th February was a bitterly cold night with temperatures of -10 to -15°C across eastern Scotland, and three stations falling below -20°C. At Braemar, -23.0°C made this the UK’s lowest temperature since December 1995.” https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2021/2021_02_low_temperatures.pdf

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't everything look 'pretty awful' to you?

Well at T252 - ie I’d call low teen maxes, even lower than that across large parts of the country not awful but absolutely dire! Anyone disagree? 
 

Edited June 9, 2021 by Alderc

[Guest]

Agree. Pretty poor second half of June is likely. 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

absolutely dire! Anyone disagree? 

I find your constant moaning quite endearing.. ...keep it up!!!...anyone agree?  

[Timmytour]

Much as I speculated on tomorrow's eclipse having the effect of a butterfly wing on sustained warm and dry weather that was previously being modelled, I'm inclined to think it could equally have an uplifting effect on the weather currently being modelled for next week, whether that is viewed as reasonable or worse than before sliced bread was invented!  

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I find your constant moaning quite endearing.. ...keep it up!!!...anyone agree?  

Is classing model output in the second half of June as dire with supporting charts showing low teen maxes moaning? I think thats a pretty accurate assessment to be honest.