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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And ukmo 12z finally smells the coffee!!told u so lol?‍♂️!high building in much stronger!!!?☀️

Aye looks good! bit iffy potentially away from the SE, any SE shift of the high then Midlands will be damp/grey under the SW'lys

more like the setup expected for August with 25 degrees plus for London/SE, 14 degrees for far NW

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Much better Ukmo 12h longer term compared to yesterday, the Azoren hoch ...looks primed to bring back nationwide summery weather!...actually, before day 6 doesn’t look too shabby either, especially further south..compared to May, it’s awesome..Ja Ja Ja!!!! ☀️ 
C4D46741-2722-4D39-93A6-C2FFEF81F1FF.thumb.gif.2e51a695941bd66e91993bb366ad757b.gif3BE113A9-984B-4F18-B801-39ECB9CA0D6B.thumb.jpeg.a4d84c55dde6e1de749ad35953ff39de.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Not a showstopper but some very solid temperatures during this week.

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Winds generally from the west or south west, so eastern parts will see the sunniest and warmest conditions with the risk of more cloud and a little rain towards the north west. Week 2 still suggests another push of heights towards the U.K. If we can draw a continental flow or see surface heights settle through the U.K. we could see very warm or potentially hot conditions develop (close to 30c).

GEM looks good at day 7

image.png

A pretty close match to the UKMO at day 6.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well there’s now doubting what the GFS 06z ensembles think beyond mid-month that’s a big old Plunge. Hopefully better from the midday suite.

 

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Miles better

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gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Still waiting on the Euro tonight but the GFS essentially goes for a slow, warm and probably wet breakdown in the day 8-10 range as pressure breaks down but the Atlantic lacks the strength to fully clear residual warmth. 

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

The GEM tonight essentially has a more conventional n/s split in the day 8-10 range as the Atlantic energy progresses east but gets pushed north (perhaps more likely than the GFS). The Atlantic will still probably win, but it may take a few goes with the Atlantic coming in slower.

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

In the longer term the outlook for tropical convection at the moment moves the wave away from the West Pacific as has recently been the case as easterlies in the Pacific become the more dominant feature. Potentially suggest a more meaningful pattern change away from warmth for the final third.

image.thumb.png.2cb446092d16e842174f3dddae52319a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM day 6

image.thumb.gif.90d9ac2034d2ec4936ed6f10ffd4fb7b.gifimage.thumb.gif.f25ec1fefbec126a75b9ca4cc49aacc2.gif

High pressure pretty much slap bang over the U.K. Very warm and sunny for most as any fronts get pushed away from the north and west of the U.K.

Day 7

image.thumb.gif.69520e485df020ad2bcc3e8192f56f11.gif
 

The position of the high doesn’t get much better than this for countrywide summer weather.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z ens. are nae bad:   t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png  

But some of those 2m temps look laughable?

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While getting to 30C on the 13th will be tricky it’s hard not to see the pitiful date record at least nudged upwards a touch given the output this evening. It’s all really strong to at least 168/192. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

While getting to 30C on the 13th will be tricky it’s hard not to see the pitiful date record at least nudged upwards a touch given the output this evening. It’s all really strong to at least 168/192. 

That blot on our summer copybook has to go at some point!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.cb44e1366783e62d7ccb95159ade87a3.png

UKMO 168 is a stonker.

Far greater ridge coverage compared to GFS at this point. That model seemingly obsessed with trying to redirect the polar jet through the UK by a week Tuesday.

Encouraging update from Tamara for those seeking further fine weather beyond Sunday 13th. Suggests UKMO & GEM may be the models to follow over GFS, which is probably dropping AAM too fast and far as usual. Other models have it drifting down toward neutral which is not enough to make a big, long-lived pattern shift more than a low probability for third week of June.

So, the mysterious UKMO T168 chart makes a reappearance after ages.  I’ve never been entirely convinced whether it exists or doesn’t!   

ECM good to T168 but then looks messy to me.  

GEM good and has high pressure to the east with a bit of a breakdown T240.

GFS a bit more messy.  

But, if we are now agreed on an Azores ridging scenario where highs break off and get cut off then there will be periods of fine weather punctuated with more unsettled spells, and this is what I think we are seeing on the models, and it is fine by me, decent summer weather, and probably a few thunderstorms in there too, I like the output at the moment.  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Great set of 12z runs for the next 7-10 days. Bit open to question beyond mid month, but still very good. The lowest forecast max here until the 15th is 23c, which is very nice indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

So, the mysterious UKMO T168 chart makes a reappearance after ages.  I’ve never been entirely convinced whether it exists or doesn’t!   

ECM good to T168 but then looks messy to me.  

GEM good and has high pressure to the east with a bit of a breakdown T240.

GFS a bit more messy.  

But, if we are now agreed on an Azores ridging scenario where highs break off and get cut off then there will be periods of fine weather punctuated with more unsettled spells, and this is what I think we are seeing on the models, and it is fine by me, decent summer weather, and probably a few thunderstorms in there too, I like the output at the moment.  

Looks good to 168 across most models - I’ll take that, as anything after that is fantasy land.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looks good to 168 across most models - I’ll take that, as anything after that is fantasy land.

Certainly is, especially in summer!

With SSTs now warming from a cool base along the track from the Azores to UK, and AAM forecast to remain in positive territory, I favour a rinse and repeat of high pressure ridges from the Azores, breaking off and punctuated by lower pressure for a few weeks.

5A104D56-7279-4419-AB87-53BFA5D9C535.thumb.png.bf669f09aa865e70313e3576113c464a.pngD3FB0EBC-5512-416C-9A6A-7E0C476C13B2.thumb.png.2a6faaef71ca4c4e326433d5e12ef9b3.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Certainly is, especially in summer!

With SSTs now warming from a cool base along the track from the Azores to UK, and AAM forecast to remain in positive territory, I favour a rinse and repeat of high pressure ridges from the Azores, breaking off and punctuated by lower pressure for a few weeks.

5A104D56-7279-4419-AB87-53BFA5D9C535.thumb.png.bf669f09aa865e70313e3576113c464a.pngD3FB0EBC-5512-416C-9A6A-7E0C476C13B2.thumb.png.2a6faaef71ca4c4e326433d5e12ef9b3.png

 

 

Hopefully one will break off and lead to a decent plume!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192-T240:

186FF864-8FDC-4F23-8C16-031F614E66C1.thumb.png.23bf2696240d0797c27d29f7897d8c2c.png

Clusters 1 and 2 look most plausible to me given the 12z output we’ve seen, 1 settled, 2 potential plume.  3 is the dodgy one for the north anyway, 4 again with plume potential but hot.

No point in posting the T264+ one, just one cluster - doesn’t tell us anything useful.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

gemeuw-2-180.thumb.png.f80d60798f2b31057e4874520d5303dc.png

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The 14th June

Reverse D-day landings

The French sens their Troops in the shape of a Thunderstorm that rapidly develops in the region of Normandy from 2pm to 8pm and hits the South East and East London. 

Sorry got caught up in my own world there. 

Looks like typical showers across especially London with some lightning in it possibly followed by, although it might just be a bit cluster of showers, I hope a French Import as looks possible. 

So if that's true then I would like to order one GEM please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Wow!!!hot ecm up to 192 hours so far!ukmo and ecm best of the bunch this morning!!gfs still keen on making it more plumey and breaks the heat down next wednesday!

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