Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Gordon Webb]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

In the short term ecm has heavy showers/storms across the midlands tomorrow!!!any other models agree with ecm?!!

 

Midlands is a pretty big place so i doubt everywhere will see them but reading forecasts from as early as this morning would have told you what the expected weather would be

 

Netweather - it'll be a trough which will serve to trigger some hefty downpours. Not just in central parts, but some will also potentially develop either side of it as well

Metcheck - A mid level low pressure system will move Northeast across England and Wales on Sunday. Some decent instability for mid to upper levels with the risk of thunderstorms developing initially across high ground of Wales on Sunday afternoon and these moving Northeast into the Midlands and later East and Northeastern areas in the evening and overnight.

and last but not least the Met Office - Cloudy for much of England and Wales with patchy rain followed by afternoon showers, some heavy and thundery. Mostly dry with sunny spells across Northern Ireland and other western parts

 

[Man With Beard]

42 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

In plain old boring English...this from the ECM 12z op would be a bit warm..Ja..Ja..Ja...oops, could not resist!  

Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

On Meteociel it was there a bit of a heat bubble from the south/southwest caught in the flow, T192:

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean indicates Azores high / ridge dominance?..just my opinion! ...bring it on..make it so!!! 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean indicates Azores high / ridge dominance?..just my opinion! ...bring it on..make it so!!! 

Yes, Karl, and the spread at T240 gives a lot of hope to the south (of Scotland!) - very settled:

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Never seen uppers like that on a westerly. Looks a bit suspect. 

Cloudy, humid and damp. Look at the temp profile on ECM.

[Djdazzle]

And it’s day 10 - so zero chance of verifying! However, some of that cloud would likely break, where it would become hot and oppressive.

As I said earlier, retrogression seems far less likely going by today’s output.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Cloudy, humid and damp. Look at the temp profile on ECM.

Looks more like something out of the tropics! Looks dubious to me.

[ANYWEATHER]

To be honest can't really see anything really settled in the ops models....yes some very warm at times for southern Britain but some unsettled weather crushed in between areas of high pressure 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest can't really see anything really settled in the ops models....yes some very warm at times for southern Britain but some unsettled weather crushed in between areas of high pressure 

Bit disappointing to have fronts intermingled with the high in the next few days, but that's always the risk being in the westerly flow of a high.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

NAO is forecasting positive/neutral which is itself a positive for Summer lovers

[Methuselah]

We could be in for some perfect summer weather: reasonable temperatures, reasonable amounts of sunshine and reasonable amounts of rain:

     

    

    

The GEFS ensembles:

    

    

NH profiles:

      

A bit of something for everyone?

[sheikhy]

Pretty good from 3 of the main models!ecm looks fantastic with heat and humidity throughout!!gfs looks same till well into fi!and ukmo looks better than 00z yesterday!!for me ukmo is still playing catch up!!

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty good from 3 of the main models!ecm looks fantastic with heat and humidity throughout!!gfs looks same till well into fi!and ukmo looks better than 00z yesterday!!for me ukmo is still playing catch up!!

Peak of the heat on this ecm run is Sunday, with around 28/29c forecast. The models are starting to firm up on a more W/E or NW/SE split, which you’d expect in a very warm tropical maritime flow. Cloudier in the NW and W with a little bit of rain....driest, brightest and warmest in eastern/southeastern areas closer to high pressure and as the air dries out across the country.

[Mr Frost]

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for some perfect summer weather: reasonable temperatures, reasonable amounts of sunshine and reasonable amounts of rain:

That sums up it all up nicely at the moment - latest Summer seasonal forecasts would agree.

Latest Met Office Summer outlook overall (June, July and August) - issued 24/05.

Near average temperatures/rainfall most likely.

 

Latest ECM Seasonal forecast - issued 01/06.

July temperature and rainfall anomaly - average to slightly above temperatures for the UK. 
Warmest SE UK. 
Average rainfall.

 

August - more of the same.

 

I was hoping for more of a heat signal to be honest! (personal preference)  

As ever all subject too many changes at this timeframe. 
Hard enough at times for models to get the forecast correct within twenty four/forty eight hours. 

Current outlook for the rest of June - plenty of sunny/warm weather up until mid month showing on the models currently - lovely stuff! (Risk of showery rain/showers at times as noted by others) 

Still that wee signal for something a bit more unsettled (flagged up for a while now - EC46) overall for many parts of the UK and Ireland as we go through the second half of this month.

GEM day ten:

 

GFS day ten:

 

ECM day ten:

Further S/SE you are the better - standard Summer chat! 

All the best to you all and enjoy the great Summer weather currently/week ahead - glorious conditions at times for many of us. (Some rubbish as well - especially up here in Western Scotland on Wednesday )

Edited June 6, 2021 by Mr Frost

[bluearmy]

The week 2 modelling continues to offer a decent outlook but with less settled incursions- at the moment that looks to be either via an Azores ridges repeatedly pushing ne (allowing shallow upper troughs to break se in between the pulses) or a cut off biscay low dropping through the upper ridging that pumps a short lived plume and then escapes ne. 
 

not a call worth trying to make at the moment but typical British summer weather (3 fine days etc etc) and a general broad nw/se split although the nw not doing too badly. 
 

I note references to the ec seasonal above ....... early dec ramp sees high slp anomoly to our nw and higher than average precip across the central med area  ......

[damianslaw]

Quite typical early summer charts on offer at the moment. Azore high beginning to flex its muscles but not strong enough to prevent fairly weak atlantic incursions at times. End product generally warm, driest in the south and east, some rain or showers at times as frontal features move west-east, most potent in the north and west, but nothing especially excessive. SE parts may draw in something significantly warmer by the end of the coming week as the azores high ridges in more concertedly. 

Longer term - no major change signalled, bit of a tug between the upper ridge and the atlantic, longer term models suggest the latter will eventually, but may take a bit of time. Until then plenty of very good early summer fayre if you like warm weather, perhaps trending more unsettled than settled further north, staying fairly settled in the south. 

I've said a few times the summer base state tends to settle in around or just after the solstice, so we have a couple of weeks yet to go, indeed I'd say how the charts are shaping up right now is almost textbook summer synoptics in this respect, either the atlantic will gain the upper hand or the azores / upper ridge, the next 2 weeks will see both do battle, lets see how things pan out..

Edited June 6, 2021 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

anomalies support high pressure dominating over the period they cover. that does allow for transitory lows to skirt through but dont suggest troughing domination.

to me, these charts look drier than average, warmer than average, but with a degree of mobility so no lengthy settled spell, unsettled but not strongly so.

 

[summer blizzard]

Models compared to yesterday morning are broadly as you were in the day 7-10 range. A broad westerly Azores build but compared to yesterday both the GFS and Euro do strengthen the low moving through.

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, the renewed strong Azores high signal is undeniable!...very summery weather to return soon following a more mixed but still pretty warm blip?...yes indeed!    

Edited June 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

anomalies support high pressure dominating over the period they cover. that does allow for transitory lows to skirt through but dont suggest troughing domination.

to me, these charts look drier than average, warmer than average, but with a degree of mobility so no lengthy settled spell, unsettled but not strongly so.

 

Would largely agree mushy. A NW-SE split as well looks likely, especially the 6-10 chart.

[Tamara]

On 10/05/2021 at 12:31, Tamara said:

 

,,,,,as far as NW Europe is concerned and specifically the UK from this threads viewpoint, anticipation of the trough re-setting further west in the Atlantic and an erratic evolution to rise in pressure from the south and east is still in the extended period. Still hampered at present by the  long term legacy of the easterly wind zonal wind anomalies at higher latitudes but this should continue to very gradually abate.

The medium term retrogression of the pattern, as momentum slides back c/o increased trade winds across the Pacific (shaded blue on Hovmollers)  c/o convective suppression (shaded orange in the velocity potential forecast) has replaced the recent active passage of a convectively couple kelvin wave (CCKW) - and is the precursor to  upstream amplification backing the trough west before rising momentum then starts to build more of a downstream amplified ridge response in the very extended period. 

 The stubborn long term enduring -AO feedbacks are the fly in the ointment, but continued tropical convective activity should start to strengthen sub tropical ridging as seasonal wavelength changes act to weaken the polar cell as summer rapidly approaches.

 Timing of such a change is rather low confidence at the moment but the end period of May and into June remains consistent with cautious thinking

Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal

Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave the UK this week. Sitting looking out over palm, citrus, loquat and olives trees, and the rows of vines shimmering in the sun and heat of the day, its also nice to take up (for now) a very brief perspective of the way forward for the first phase of summer.

As outlined in previous posts, it been a classic situation where seasonal wavelength changes and rising momentum create poleward fluxing of rossby waves which in turn beef up sub tropical ridging and encourage summer-time migration of the jet stream.  

The strength of tropical forcing, and associated poleward migration of jet eddies, set against a much more sanguine and stable polar field profile,  allows the expansive eastward propagating mid latitude ridging and is sufficient feedback to ensure a lot of fine summer weather for a broad spectrum of Europe - warmest/hottest further west and south for much of the coming month..

Its a case of monitoring the tropics for weakening of tropical forcing allied to seasonal trade wind activity which might create retrogression of the pattern and a more widely changeable pattern for NW Europe (still hot and sunny further south), but if it happens at all, this looks quite some way off and worth being cautious of model tendencies to try to be too progressive with such a trend in the medium term, only to re-adjust the pattern back eastwards. Any such signal is more a thought process heading into July, but all a long way off, and with no worthwhile rationale for analysis of any kind at this time

35C expected across much of central and southern Portugal (and Spain) this coming week as the early summer heat builds - which is not unusual for these parts in itself, but it is still quite a change from a distinctly cool Spring (relative to normal), that evident even in this part of the Mediterranean, even if obviously nothing like the UK and NW Europe..

Feliz Domingo

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Once again my ability to spot rain not coming up from the CAPE in France and just being showers ahead of frontal rain is spot on if I do say so myself. 

 

I think I'm going to become French at this rate. 

Mon nom est Xander

je suis Français 

Anyway still looking good in semi-reliable time frames but still that threat from the North. 

Eagle Eye

[Frosty.]

Great post as always from Tamara..wish we were having some of what she’s having in Portugal!!..but actually, looking at the GEFS 6z mean, we will soon see a return to our own type of very summery weather!!, at least until around mid month? ..beyond that, the mean weakens the Azores high signal but that doesn’t preclude further summery weather during the second half of June?!...as ever, my glass is half full rather than half empty!!!!  ?  

 

Edited June 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

Well there’s now doubting what the GFS 06z ensembles think beyond mid-month that’s a big old Plunge. Hopefully better from the midday suite.