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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, there’s very strong support for the Azores high to become very influential again during the first half of June with predominantly summery conditions. From mid month or soon after, confidence in a continuation of the summery weather falls...I think that’s fair to say?!...but, this doesn’t preclude further summery conditions during the second half / last third of June?..fingers crossed that June is indeed..FLAMING!...for the most part..I’m cheering on the Azores High..make it so!!!! ! ☀️

3EB68CE3-5BC5-42BD-910A-45D98E24C148.thumb.png.8566bb521f19ea5afb190120e56afce4.png5E41F93B-B273-4022-A28A-B897044564C4.thumb.png.91e5ea8b588c906f2601be29b82de86c.png9D65DE89-FE35-425E-AD36-FD8AA60C8759.thumb.png.009f74b40779b1a15086176930e281ca.png41A3952E-3CB3-4C85-8318-3C38156B8401.thumb.png.d9ea2795dd72629c06368641cdff90c0.png6E82FB4C-51A3-4CDB-963F-A407AF5ACA37.thumb.png.3d3e672c0b2db0b997e58927c3cd4615.pngFDF76E96-1FD4-41F6-B967-4D9429BCED2E.thumb.png.85efbaeed263a5abeac6cf3892ddc756.png5E8A09CD-6F4A-4117-954F-A2F5845D7E75.thumb.png.676dd3964238c3bb8679d57ca7aa1aba.pngE4238104-D88D-43FC-B79E-0B6971A074D5.thumb.jpeg.4bd0abecaad726f1cbdb28ce833bcb66.jpeg

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Dont know about being a little more unsettled after mid month, I was somewhat shocked to see this precip chart for the Gfs 6z for tomorrow. 

image.thumb.png.576c06f9460ecaa747864830db42527c.png

Was under the impression that even as far as yesterday a mainly dry and warm day was being forecast unless i'm mistaken...?

 

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.0d7c9c6e50fec5efd75f43a9994cc78c.png

Lots of frontal muck trapped under the high sadly. So despite pressure being above 1024mb it could be quite wet. Shame!

Weird how the synoptic chart shows fronts but the rainfall chart depicts more convective showers, given the perfect placement over the land mass only.

Either way... so typical to still be dealing with issues under a high pressure area!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.0d7c9c6e50fec5efd75f43a9994cc78c.png

Lots of frontal muck trapped under the high sadly. So despite pressure being above 1024mb it could be quite wet. Shame!

That would make the national forecast given only yesterday totally wrong. Can’t believe pros could be THAT far out at 48 hours?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

Weird how the synoptic chart shows fronts but the rainfall chart depicts more convective showers, given the perfect placement over the land mass only.

Either way... so typical to still be dealing with issues under a high pressure area!

image.thumb.png.5e4d8b75e7f8a9aa750bd5e9bca391a2.png

There are some areas of convergence which coupled with some instability gives the uplift and showers. You can see the stronger SW flow to the west of Ireland/Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
35 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Ok guys..and gals..promise me you won’t laugh. .this is the cfs we are talking about!...but July does have some summery potential...lord knows, all I hope for is a good summer?...is that too much to ask for lord?...hmmm!!!!...anyway, it’s model related so it’s valid, no matter how tenuous! ..wow I’m on fire  ..now, I feel weak.... ..I need a lie down.. lie down Jon snow..you know nothing Jon snow!!!!..there’s nobody here anyway so thats just fine init?!!!!!   ☀️   

 

 

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Thanks JS. Lovely charts as always accompanied by your great narrative. I'm going thru bad time at moment with mh problems in the family and your posts always cheer me up

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

D2360392-C763-462E-9498-6C07ED6CA460.thumb.png.426e03cafc9076eddfe5483a9b03cbb1.png7E71BA6E-BB0C-40F7-9BAC-CD225ADBDB56.thumb.png.cf6694ed055d3674fe9c9de335291a50.png

UKMO and GFS still looking different at 144...

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

D2360392-C763-462E-9498-6C07ED6CA460.thumb.png.426e03cafc9076eddfe5483a9b03cbb1.png7E71BA6E-BB0C-40F7-9BAC-CD225ADBDB56.thumb.png.cf6694ed055d3674fe9c9de335291a50.png

UKMO and GFS still looking different at 144...

But improved and much better than the 00z more importantly!!might be playin catch up here!!!if ecm joins gfs later then im afraid ukmo will be wrong and join the rest of the party tomorrow!!if ecm follows ukmo later then that could be that for gfs!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield

Any talk of breakdowns is definitely looking at a half empty glass IMO. It's a dream start to summer. High pressure is clearly our friend for the foreseeable and we're potentially looking at the first proper flaming June in yonks. Yeehaaa

 

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GFS looks ok but on closer inspection it has showers almost everyday from Thursday onwards. Really need that high pressure to build in solidly otherwise there could be a few days like tomorrow despite decent uppers and high pressure.

But UKMO much better than this morning!! 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS looks ok but on closer inspection it has showers almost everyday from Thursday onwards. Really need that high pressure to build in solidly otherwise there could be a few days like tomorrow despite decent uppers and high pressure.

But UKMO much better than this morning!! 

5A6D035B-BB77-4000-A262-97C88818811E.thumb.png.0afa6c650493c3a2b7da322e29871d20.pngE2CC378E-0F2C-4AAE-B710-44F2708F8FEE.thumb.png.b1752a60b814ba09a0456522f9f6f232.png
 

Indeed - where on face value the top chart looks like a classic sunny day, it may not be. Corresponding temps are very good though - into the low/mid 20s. Not bad at all!


image.thumb.png.c7edbb5aa9379a00d797a2e62deeaecf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Mein Lieber herr ich mag das Ukmo 12h Solange ich in sudengland bin !!!! ☀️ ..sehr verbessert!...Ja..Ja..!!!!  ..thank god we won the war!  

FFA4CAFE-18F2-4D10-B730-4F3753E7CBCC.thumb.gif.dac60fe26269afd5da95069f26e25e94.gif

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Any unsettled and cool showing will probably keep being pushed back so its not worth worrying about it when its out at Day 10 and beyond.
Imagine if we were stuck under unsettled weather and the models were showing drier and warmer for the second half of June you can just bet your house the dry and warm will keep showing at Day 10 and being pushed back.. I have a feeling thats happening now that the unsettled spells or troughs will just keep being pushed back as high pressure slowly gains more control. Model watching throughout summer of 2018  was just about as exciting as this. 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
29 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Any unsettled and cool showing will probably keep being pushed back so its not worth worrying about it when its out at Day 10 and beyond.
Imagine if we were stuck under unsettled weather and the models were showing drier and warmer for the second half of June you can just bet your house the dry and warm will keep showing at Day 10 and being pushed back.. I have a feeling thats happening now that the unsettled spells or troughs will just keep being pushed back as high pressure slowly gains more control. Model watching throughout summer of 2018  was just about as exciting as this. 

True, I remember the models kept wanting to break down the pattern and it got pushed back for months lol

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
32 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Any unsettled and cool showing will probably keep being pushed back so its not worth worrying about it when its out at Day 10 and beyond.
Imagine if we were stuck under unsettled weather and the models were showing drier and warmer for the second half of June you can just bet your house the dry and warm will keep showing at Day 10 and being pushed back.. I have a feeling thats happening now that the unsettled spells or troughs will just keep being pushed back as high pressure slowly gains more control. Model watching throughout summer of 2018  was just about as exciting as this. 

Yes, I agree with this, obviously this year is different to 2018, but right now, if you look across the piste the models are suggesting a period of high pressure from an extended and repeating Azores ridge, but there are occasional runs that are giving disappointing output.  I think we’d be best guided by the majority of the op runs here…and it still looks good to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM 12z looks like a good run to me, by T240 the high pressure train is on the rails…

animecf8.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T168, what’s not to like:

81097BA2-DD7A-4FD3-8C5A-5ED96A230A2C.thumb.gif.05503030d9435dd5e6ef0d90e587d0e7.gif661029DC-0398-45A2-A63A-D5B3126D640D.thumb.gif.0bb8f2062cea0a941b309151299845a6.gif

I’m pretty confident now that the Azores ridge will be the main influencer on our weather until at least the final third of June…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Guten Abend sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,  die GEFS 12z sieht mir ziemlich gut aus! Ja Ja..!!!!...basically, the GEFS 12z mean looks pretty good to me..yes yes! ☀️.... Azoren hoch..liebe dich..  ❤️  

AAD88764-DEBE-41CC-9AE1-EAC7BEE4FA48.thumb.png.bb43ffc3af89b58f3f59bb3d61c70253.pngCCEE21A3-BC39-432B-B1F9-0F257041B920.thumb.png.ea8101577a2064a5d75a3fa2bb219b0b.png6CE42B8E-A03C-46FD-A344-22854CEA15F8.thumb.png.8eb3f00c8eb08174a92a8e0dba0e57e0.pngB20E52B7-C61B-4D38-8BB4-66DADB350351.thumb.png.0c1fb414c49a0ba3bf3233678c4e91c1.pngF72A1E9F-EE3D-40E9-A024-110F5ED3F83D.thumb.png.f669ba750dfc131b4d4eaa77ab175707.png710B1D64-E51D-44D6-B69D-1A62C3CB5A80.thumb.png.f2365238350f5c4c2d75fa512cd19f10.png2AF5434B-777E-4787-8A83-823281DA1BC4.thumb.png.a95e721a8f351292dd3bc47d35ba34d7.pngCF65E74C-5FDB-4515-8EDF-C4220A2603F2.thumb.png.78bc524990c0a9772941ef4fdb286f1e.pngEAAC0201-6486-4251-9F88-949AB0066224.thumb.png.f61bbf584acf9c4b16a8f6cd7c09284d.png65CCE521-3DF2-42EC-98C5-92FC738101B6.thumb.jpeg.c71c962585452a9b94ce1244331ada6a.jpeg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

In plain old boring English...this from the ECM 12z op would be a bit warm..Ja..Ja..Ja...oops, could not resist!  

58B583D6-D1A6-407D-AA42-DEEDA5B6F59E.thumb.png.87db799c01302014dc8f53be05306b88.png1B0ACAD1-84D1-4ED6-9630-028E29065EF3.thumb.png.a2be6e7d32bc4a22e90313499a15b896.png0BE5049D-DC0B-489D-8628-C9708C8C2119.thumb.png.b160e5ea6ffabd039fb57a31bf8f867c.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Sometimes the 24hr gap in frames on the ECM can be misleading, here T216 and T240, ends well but other things could have been envisaged from the earlier chart!

B4ADC15A-F44C-471F-A093-2D4D590793CC.thumb.gif.dd467004403d621a1e48657bf76c0cfc.gifB5D00E5C-57F3-4991-9C63-2198F388203A.thumb.gif.8cf8a6a025b05d037c5f7614e30d863d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA has the reridging thing from the Azores going properly, T192, T228, T264:

948AC9C5-354D-4AE9-8DE6-3E2C0E87317C.thumb.gif.ac60068789103ebef99f752895f5b94c.gif464CE517-7F3C-48EE-9910-155BF8A90432.thumb.gif.b16949a5d779405dc135fbbd1d08b26e.gif54E6A09E-316B-478C-869E-970EDC9694CF.thumb.gif.4ff6161bccd413161883f7e609cb95ba.gif

And a cut off low to-boot (whatever that means).  

I think increasingly promising setups for decent UK summer weather on the op runs, not all of them, but if you treat them as a super-ensemble then I think the emerging signal for at least the first 3/4 of June is excellent if you like warm summer weather…we will see…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

In the short term ecm has heavy showers/storms across the midlands tomorrow!!!any other models agree with ecm?!!

I’ve posted some of the high res model outputs in the convective thread that have been signalling this earlier on. Could be an interesting day! 

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