Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which is great to hear...

EC will be the judge , just a tad concerned things could  go wrong 120-144...( ala ukmo).

 

Ridiculous how much chopping and changing the GFS has undergone past 192 hours recently.

The here and now looks decent enough. 

Im keeping my eye on the Arctic low, and the N Atlantic low heights. If they phase, then that reduces the likelihood of any attempt of heights increasing to the N, which should keep us on the warmer side of the jet, and avoid any trough drops down into Europe or the N Sea. Noticed how the lastest GFS has maintained a bridge with the low heights over the arctic and Atlantic, and closed the gap on ridges pushing up towards the Arctic circle, which is what we want. 

Edited June 5, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational turned out pretty good didn’t it? ? 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

EC is wonderful...esp later on..

But, lots could go wrong in that 120 -144 timeframe making the above irrelevant...

Fingers crossed ukmo behaves this evening.

 

 

[Methuselah]

Quite a lot of scatter in this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles -- and scatter makes me nervous:

    

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Quite a lot of scatter in this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles -- and scatter makes me nervous:

    

Thats a big flip towards heat mate!!was just about to post the ones for leicestershire!!before between the 8th and the 13th there were quite a few members around the 5 degree 850hpa mark but now id say 80 percent are at 10 degrees or morefor the same time!!ecm looks brilliant this morning!!ukmo still warm for england at least till 144 hours but that low to the northwest is too close for my liking!

[Djdazzle]

The UKMO is a concern. When one of the big three shows that at 144, it canon be dismissed.

[Guest]

While the UKMO is a concern the ensembles from GFS are great viewing, the mean is above 10C here for 6days and bar one whacky member theres really almost nothing below the mean which is now 6-7C down here. If UKMO can sort itself out June really is starting to look pretty good. 

Also the GFS this morning would likely eradicate the most annoying stat in the UK weather books, 30C possible on the June....

Edited June 5, 2021 by Alderc

[Bradley in Kent]

As long as there are a few hot members I tend not to 'worry' as much. 14 days ago the models didn't look great and 10 days ago some runs were already bringing in a breakdown. In reality we've ended up with some very reasonable weather with a good week to come

I suppose it's eyes on late next week as to what the Azores nose does

[MildCarlilse]

9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

As long as there are a few hot members I tend not to 'worry' as much. 14 days ago the models didn't look great and 10 days ago some runs were already bringing in a breakdown. In reality we've ended up with some very reasonable weather with a good week to come

I suppose it's eyes on late next week as to what the Azores nose does

Depends where you stay I suppose.

[Singularity]

UKMO turns out to be a slightly flatter variation on the ECM 00z at +168. Also looks set to build the high in more the next day.

Starting to sense we’ve seen one of those situations where the models jump the gun on a big pressure build through the UK and it proves to be the next push that seals the deal. The first one (Tue-Thu) has been reduced substantially.

GFS almost merges the two while ECM and UKMO have more separation with a frontal passage Fri into Sat. Briefly fresher with some rain, then rapidly drying out and warming up again.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean, like the op, turns into a STONKER!...Azores High..I luv u (get a room frosty)   ! ?....it’s got its Mojo back!

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

A good run as long as that pesky low stays away. 

[bluearmy]

The ens means at day 9/11 show that summer remains well on track but we continue to see extended variations on themes which should mean we stay alert for alternatives which would be decidedly unsummery!  And whilst the means to days 11 show strong upper ridging, frontal incursions and 24 hour drops in heights can’t be ruled out, especially from the scandi troughs as the jet traverses the pulsating Azores ridging. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like we have just avoided a retrograde of the high, but still, knife edge stuff from the GFS again. 

Edited June 5, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hmm, not liking the way the 06z is going again, that trough is going to drop down! 

This is going to be a headache for sure. 

Not its not!!absolutely fantastic 06z gfs so far!!even stronger heights as well and more in line with the mean outputs over the last few days!!ukmo at the moment looks the outlier!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

54 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not its not!!absolutely fantastic 06z gfs so far!!even stronger heights as well and more in line with the mean outputs over the last few days!!ukmo at the moment looks the outlier!!

Whatever way its outputs go, its always ending up with a trough dropping in. 

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Whatever way its outputs go, its always ending up with a trough dropping in. 

Yeh seems to be a bias at the moment!!but come closer to the time its a flatter pattern and high has more of an influence!!!up to 192 hours there has a been a big improvement from gfs last 24 hours after that its just way too far ahead to take seriously!!

[Methuselah]

There don't appear to be too many worries about troughing at Day 12; as the anomaly genii said: it doesn't look all that likely:

     

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh seems to be a bias at the moment!!but come closer to the time its a flatter pattern and high has more of an influence!!!up to 192 hours there has a been a big improvement from gfs last 24 hours after that its just way too far ahead to take seriously!!

It is possibly, though something a tad more unsettled after mid month is definitely an option. Should be fairly good on the whole until then though. We will see what transpires!

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Not its not!!absolutely fantastic 06z gfs so far!!even stronger heights as well and more in line with the mean outputs over the last few days!!ukmo at the moment looks the outlier!!

Come on now, sheikhy? We all know that, when the going gets tough, the GFS operational run flaps around like a sheet in the wind!

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on now, sheikhy? We all know that, when the going gets tough, the GFS operational run flaps around like a sheet in the wind!

Definately mate!!last 24 hours have kinda proved that!!BUT it could still be right!!the mean by the way looks fantastic at 240 hours!!stronger high across the uk!

[Djdazzle]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It is possibly, though something a tad more unsettled after mid month is definitely an option. Should be fairly good on the whole until then though. We will see what transpires!

More unsettled could mean a more amplified pattern, which may lead to more chance of a plume? High risk though!

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

More unsettled could mean a more amplified pattern, which may lead to more chance of a plume? High risk though!

It’s possible, though the odds would probably favour amplification to the west and east again with troughing returning closer to us. Not guaranteed though, June 2018 went against this!

MJO projected to move around mid month with -ve anoms replacing positive that have supported the fine start to June here. With a bit of lag then maybe into last 10 days a change could come about. One to watch:

[minus10]

48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It is possibly, though something a tad more unsettled after mid month is definitely an option. Should be fairly good on the whole until then though. We will see what transpires!

Dont know about being a little more unsettled after mid month, I was somewhat shocked to see this precip chart for the Gfs 6z for tomorrow. 

Was under the impression that even as far as yesterday a mainly dry and warm day was being forecast unless i'm mistaken...?

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

Dont know about being a little more unsettled after mid month, I was somewhat shocked to see this precip chart for the Gfs 6z for tomorrow. 

Was under the impression that even as far as yesterday a mainly dry and warm day was being forecast unless i'm mistaken...?

Lots of frontal muck trapped under the high sadly. So despite pressure being above 1024mb it could be quite wet. Shame!