Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Timmytour]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

 

Towards the 192 hour mark you can see the improvement. 

Really like this,

I guess as long as that low that travels from west to east of Greenland stays hugging its coast, things will continue to look positive.   I wouldn't be enormously surprised however if at least some of its energy gets thrown a lot closer to the UK in the process than shown above..... 

[Frosty.]

Looking further into the GEFS 6z crystal ball!!...the mean improves significantly again following a bit of a wobble, the Azores high flexes its muscles again and well into June the generally summery theme continues..possibly beyond mid month which is as far as we should realistically look?...in my opinion!...anyway, there’s some great output again today, for example, the ECM 0z ensemble mean / op turns into an anticyclonic epic... fingers crossed for much more of this weeks summery weather during the next two weeks +!!! ?

 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Timmytour]

16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking further into the GEFS 6z crystal ball!!...the mean improves significantly again following a bit of a wobble, the Azores high flexes its muscles again and well into June the generally summery theme continues..possibly beyond mid month which is as far as we should realistically look?...in my opinion!...anyway, there’s some great output again today, for example, the ECM 0z ensemble mean / op turns into an anticyclonic epic... fingers crossed for much more of the current weather during the next two weeks +!!! ?

 

 

Looks good.....what we don't want is a 1978 situation where a lobe of high pressure cuts off and drifts north and east over the UK .

After a lovely first few days to the month, the 13th June 1978 bought us this which gave the UK a daily mean CET of under 10C !!  (since which the 18th in 1991 is the only June day outside its first ten days to register below 10C) 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Timmytour

[minus10]

3 hours ago, Singularity said:

All bets are off with the GFS 06z, which has invalidated the 'GFS & GEM v ECM' view by heading down yet another path.

It splits a separate high pressure cell away as the Azores High retreats westward. This caught me eye, as it's  the sort of thing we tend to see for the finalé of a fine spell, as opposed to all of the high pressure retracting to our west in one move.

Yes...this path resulting in 15deg 850s moving in over the south on this run. Pretty hot I would think (30 +) with high humidity...potential thundery spell? JFF ..

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes...this path resulting in 15deg 850s moving in over the south on this run. Pretty hot I would think (30 +) with high humidity...potential thundery spell? JFF ..

Even GFS concurrent maxes of 31 & then 32C over London and widespread high 20s. Best of all it wasn’t even a massive outlier. Plenty of extremely warm ensemble members. 
 

[mushymanrob]

Hmm.... heres something of interest... I make it that the CET for Spring was 23.7c  (7.2 , 6.4,  10.1)

In the last 100 years i can only find 8 Springs that were colder... 2013, 1996, 1984, 1975, 1955, 1941, 1935, 1923.

7/8 of the following summers were in the Manchester Summer Index's top 25 .....

[johnholmes]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Hmm.... heres something of interest... I make it that the CET for Spring was 23.7c  (7.2 , 6.4,  10.1)

In the last 100 years i can only find 8 Springs that were colder... 2013, 1996, 1984, 1975, 1955, 1941, 1935, 1923.

7/8 of the following summers were in the Manchester Summer Index's top 25 .....

Let us hope that you are 7/8 correct mushy and it includes this side of the Pennines also!

[Methuselah]

My guess here (based on the soon to be defunct GEFS 06Z ensembles) is that we might be about to enter a period of enhanced Uncertainty?

     

[Methuselah]

Deep blue skies, lenticularis and 26C . . . Bring it on!    

[Guest]

GFS badly flip-flopping now between heatwave and big trough. Almost laughable difference.

06Z 

12z 

[Djdazzle]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS badly flip-flopping now between heatwave and big trough. Almost laughable difference.

06Z 

12z 

When has it ever been any different!

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

When has it ever been any different!

I thought it got a bit better last summer when at least it seemed to pick a solution and stick with it.

That said GEM has almost done same but with the opposite solutions and nudged the high several hundred miles further east on the 12z, so while its not exactly 'dire trough to heatwave' is more like 'Pretty yucky to yep I'll take that'! 

[Mike Poole]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS badly flip-flopping now between heatwave and big trough. Almost laughable difference.

06Z 

12z 

Well that is at day 12 so maybe it can be forgiven .

Closer to the now, T144:

The UKMO seems the most generous with the Azores ridge to the UK, but re the 500 hPa heights, the GEM extends them farthest northeast.  The models in the later timeframes seem to want to retract the ridge back west but I’m not sure that stacks up.  AAM forecast (by a model of course, CFS) to remain positive for the foreseeable.  I think we will see the high pressure pushing more east on subsequent runs.  

[mb018538]

Fronts/troughs could give a fair few showers at times in the week. Friday could see more persistent rain for some if ECM is right:

[Mike Poole]

ECM and JMA both finish with a decent pattern at T240, quite similar, maybe this is the form horse:

[mb018538]

ECM ending on a high:

 

GFS on a low:

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 12z mean there’s plenty more summery weather to look forward to from the Azores high / ridge during the first half of June...and hopefully beyond!...I think we need a good June to make up for last month!!..and June is my favourite summer month!

 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[stodge]

Evening all

Looking through the 12Z output and there's nothing unusual or synoptically dramatic.

The summer pattern of waxing and waning Azores HP dominates - as the ridge pushes towards and over the British Isles, we get a settled spell of fine and often sunny weather (perhaps an E'ly through the Channel depending on how far north the ridge sits).

The ridge periodically retreats as LP comes in from the Atlantic but these aren't strong winter storms and simply produce an unsettled and briefly cooler spell with rain or showers before the HP starts to ridge again from the south west.

This is in some ways the opposite of the winter default in that while the winter default keeps the cold air bottled up to the north, the summer default keeps the hot air bottled up to the south. The ridge holds the hot sir over Iberia and points further south so the British Isles enjoys pleasantly warm conditions but not anything too hot.

For heat to develop we need the synoptic pattern to change and have the HP to the east with the Atlantic trough held to the west - this advects the hot air north and is our old mate "the plume".

I don't see that on the horizon currently - the persistent ridge from south west to north east is strongest to the south west so mild and balmy TM air is occasionally and briefly replaced by diluted PM air but it's June not March so nothing to worry about.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

So there is a strong signal for a push from the Azores, but less margin of error on the northeastern extremity.  I still think better charts could be coming soon, not that these aren’t good, given the May we have had, of course. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Mike Poole

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some big complications ahead of whether we can squeeze the Azores high to the better side (NE) and get some more proper summer weather. The models keep on suggesting however that it’s coming up against a wall of resistance over Scandinavia and Europe. The Scandinavian or Euro link up will be important, otherwise we are left vulnerable yet again to retrogression, and the worst type of breakdown with a trough dropping down from the North, and absymally cool weather. That’s exactly how we ended up with the last 2 months worth of dross! 

Hoping the models decide to bin that idea quickly if I’m honest! 

[sheikhy]

Much better 18z up to 192 hours!!high having more of an influence on the uk and next saturday is shown to be very warm to hot across england!!

[northwestsnow]

Hoping EC doesn't follow ukmo this morning..

Looks ominous at 144..

Edited June 5, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping EC doesn't follow ukmo this morning..

Looks ominous at 144..

It certainly does but thankfully so far GFS and GEM nothing like it. In fact both become warm and pretty much stay that way

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping EC doesn't follow ukmo this morning..

Looks ominous at 144..

Agreed, thankfully the Gfs 0z op / mean look much better in the T+144 hours timeframe and just looking at the mean in particular, summery sums it up with strong Azores high / ridge influence for the u k!  

 

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It certainly does but thankfully so far GFS and GEM nothing like it. In fact both become warm and pretty much stay that way

Which is great to hear...

EC will be the judge , just a tad concerned things could  go wrong 120-144...( ala ukmo).