Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Cant believe people want unsettled westerlies than a fantastic Ecm like this, leading into a potential Scorchio for all, as wasnt this what happened in late June 2018 when it was cooler in the East for a time.  

Agree with your post! as EC 240 super for Manchester! all about location

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Cant believe people want unsettled westerlies than a fantastic Ecm like this, leading into a potential Scorchio for all, as wasnt this what happened in late June 2018 when it was cooler in the East for a time.  

Didn’t say I want unsettled westerlies - but at least you’d get some sun with those. That ECM 240 chart will be dull and cool for most.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with your post! as EC 240 super for Manchester! all about location

It wasnt very good in the East either at first

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye this area, 'winds from the east, no use to man or beast' yuk, hate 'em

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All... a very mixed outlook it has to be honest no Super high controlling the weather ...instead some Gentle Summer Weather...

[summer blizzard]

Interesting modelling tonight.

GEM and Euro broadly support their differing 0z scenarios so are at least consistent (GEM builds the high sufficiently west to drop a Scandi Trough, Euro tries to send an upper low underneath to build to our north/East).

The GFS however appears to be struggling as it produces it's third scenario in three runs. In this scenario the Atlantic is essentially set to half strength (still fairly dry and sunny in the south east) and goes semi-zonal (potentially west and dull in the north and west).

[Mr Frost]

Evening all

Hope everyone is well.

Barely looked at any model run for days - weather has been fantastic! Low 20’s and plenty of sunshine.
Today…not so much warmth/sunshine. 

Latest EC46. (Just looking up to 28/06)

Weekly mean 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 

07/06 to 14/06 - temperatures well above average and drier than average. 
Proper Summer charts. 

 

14/06 to 21/06 - Temperatures still above average for most! Average for parts of NW Scotland and parts of NE/E/SE England. 
Risk of something more unsettled as we go through this week. 

 

21/06 to 28/06 - Mixed bag and cooler for many. (Temperatures still average for most though)

 

To be honest I would bank that run - strong signal for a warm and mostly dry first half of June at the very least! 

All the best!

Edited June 3, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Frosty.]

Personally, it’s been a nightmare day, my dads fallen over twice as he’s so frail...but, the ECM 12z ensemble mean shows a very strong recovery later and by T+240 hours is MAGNIFICENT! ? 

[bluearmy]

Slowly but surely I feel we are edging to the upper ridge retrogressing  far enough west to allow a trough to get close from our east or even sit over nw Europe end week 2.  

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Slowly but surely I feel we are edging to the upper ridge retrogressing  far enough west to allow a trough to get close from our east or even sit over nw Europe end week 2.  

Hopefully not. Once that happens, you tend to get stuck in the pattern.

We need to get that HP further east.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hopefully not. Once that happens, you tend to get stuck in the pattern.

We need to get that HP further east.

It will absolutely happen in time for Freedom day on the 21st and definitely by the 26th as I have tickets for the England / Sri Lanka T20 match at the Rosebowl...

[Mike Poole]

T168 and I’m not seeing anything to cause concerns:

And UKMO at T144:

Let the unreliable drift forward to the reliable.  Not sure about any reduction in AAM putting spokes in the wheel any time soon, looks consistently high on most CFS runs: 

Hold the line, folks, summer is here!

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T168 and I’m not seeing anything to cause concerns:

And UKMO at T144:

Let the unreliable drift forward to the reliable.  Not sure about any reduction in AAM putting spokes in the wheel any time soon, looks consistently high on most CFS runs: 

Hold the line, folks, summer is here!

Of course there is every chance that the amplification will remain close to our longitude and not drift too far west.  Just that the current drift in the modelling is west .....

[Mike Poole]

JMA T264:

Nice cut off low there might make mischief!

ECM T240:

Another variant!  Let’s see what happens at T144 and go from there, but lots of interest now re heat and thunderstorm activity down the line…needs more runs to firm this up…

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Of course there is every chance that the amplification will remain close to our longitude and not drift too far west.  Just that the current drift in the modelling is west .....

That's not across the board though and is well outside the reliable time frame. Let's not forget for a time this time last week, the models showed a trough slap bang over the UK for last Sunday only a few days before. In the end it was a stunning day across the country and high pressure dominated.

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z is suggesting that some sort of 'cold' trough may (at least temporarily?) end up near Blighty. I hope it doesn't!

     

     

     

     

Best wait for the anomalies, methinks?

[Guest]

GFS is absolutely terrible this morning post day 9, from summer joy to misery in 24hrs but let’s be honest it’s been barking up this tree a bit in the last day or so and both GEM and ECM have shown westerly regressing highs although nothing as extreme as this mornings GFS. 

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 00Z is suggesting that some sort of 'cold' trough may (at least temporarily?) end up near Blighty. I hope it doesn't!

     

     

     

     

Best wait for the anomalies, methinks?

Dont have to wait Pete... they remain consistent in predicting high pressure over the UK. So this GFS run is highly unlikely to be anywhere near right.

[Guest]

ECM a million times better at day 10. 
 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks absolutely superb later in the run, it seems as though the Azores high is falling in love with the u k?! ...not a bad op either!  

 

[johnholmes]

No commentary just the 500 mb anomaly charts. Both showing the far nw perhaps rather changeable but most of the UK under an upper ridge.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

Towards the 192 hour mark you can see the improvement. 

[summer blizzard]

Interesting modelling this morning with the 0z GFS backing it's 12z and GEM run, this has tipped the scales such that in the 7-10 day range the Euro (consistent in building the high over/north) is now set against both the GEM and GFS who essentially want to build Atlantic heights and drop a trough somewhere near North West Europe.

[minus10]

A wet 'blip' today in the South East before summer weather returns (hopefully)

[Singularity]

All bets are off with the GFS 06z, which has invalidated the 'GFS & GEM v ECM' view by heading down yet another path.

It splits a separate high pressure cell away as the Azores High retreats westward. This caught me eye, as it's  the sort of thing we tend to see for the finalé of a fine spell, as opposed to all of the high pressure retracting to our west in one move.