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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I note that the longer-term outlook from the models has the Atlantic trough weakening, resulting in more of an Azores High ridging pattern rather than the Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario.  This would be consistent with the high pressure eventually retreating to the west and/or south, but probably not until around midmonth.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Worth remembering that the GFS6z does have operational GEM support so it may be sniffing something (but low likelihood as things stand).

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth remembering that the GFS6z does have operational GEM support so it may be sniffing something (but low likelihood as things stand).

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

The anomalies don't support it at all and that's good enough for me at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
22 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I note that the longer-term outlook from the models has the Atlantic trough weakening, resulting in more of an Azores High ridging pattern rather than the Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario.  This would be consistent with the high pressure eventually retreating to the west and/or south, but probably not until around midmonth.

A classic summer pattern, azores high ridge- westerly Atlantic driven, and often beds in around the solstice. Until then a good 10 days of very dry summery weather, but subtle signal for slow transition to less settled, note less settled not disturbed.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On 02/06/2021 at 13:47, Timmytour said:

From a purely selfish point of view I'm not hoping for a hot June, not just becasue it would scupper my CET prediction, but frustratingly I have not used the past few months to lose the few stone I could do with losing, and, as a result, I know the heat would be uncomfortable!

I must admit however the models aren't holding out a lot of hope for me at present.  However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days 

Looks like GFS op is picking up quicker than ECM on the changes brought about by the recent solar flare grazing....would expect ECM  and other GFS ensembles to have taken this into consideration by tomorrow morning's runs    <wild speculation on my part!>

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Remember guys, this is only the GEFS 6z..hardly important? ...anyhoo, there’s hope for a continuation of generally summery conditions into the mid / longer term?..I’ve seen good signs again today..the ECM 0z ens mean long term...WOW!...anyway, make you’re own minds up..I’m just the messenger! ☀️ ⛈...nobody on here wants summery weather more than me!  ?..Spock isn’t too impressed..but then, he’s hard to please!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
57 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth remembering that the GFS6z does have operational GEM support so it may be sniffing something (but low likelihood as things stand).

GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

 

54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The anomalies don't support it at all and that's good enough for me at this stage.

Its true that the anomalies do not support that GFS 06z chart, but its also true to suggest the GFS may be sniffing out something.

However, its not very often that the GFS out performs the anomalies although it does happen on rare occassions. The point is that the Anomalies are consistent and have been for days now, they might be wrong, but % wise thats unlikely.
As far as im concerned, unless/until the anomalies show a given pattern, then its highly unlikely to verify. But we must also understand that the anomalies being the mean - they will not show transitory features.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I note that the longer-term outlook from the models has the Atlantic trough weakening, resulting in more of an Azores High ridging pattern rather than the Euro high/Atlantic trough scenario.  This would be consistent with the high pressure eventually retreating to the west and/or south, but probably not until around midmonth.

Hoping and praying that doesn’t happen. We don’t want HP slipping west.

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15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hoping and praying that doesn’t happen. We don’t want HP slipping west.

Especially not now holidays for most of summer (at least) look dead in the water. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

@Nick F's latest blog looks at the model outlook for the remainder of June.

Screenshot%202021-06-03%2016_46_55.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

The forecasting models currently suggest a lot of dry and settled weather through June, as the theme of 'stuck' weather patterns continues.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The anomalies aren’t all that..!!..trust me.,or don’t trust me? ...the GEFS  / ECM longer term mean is very good?..but only if you’re hoping for something summery?...wow..now I’m exhausted...think what you like? ..ps.. Paul is amazing, what an incredible site he’s created!!...god bless.

.  

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Looks like GFS op is picking up quicker than ECM on the changes brought about by the recent solar flare grazing....would expect ECM  and other GFS ensembles to have taken this into consideration by tomorrow morning's runs    <wild speculation on my part!>

More likely falling AAM and slipping into a Nina atmospheric response. Singularity has pointed this out already. 
 

This summer was never going to be dry and warm all the way through.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, CreweCold said:

More likely falling AAM and slipping into a Nina atmospheric response. Singularity has pointed this out already. 
 

This summer was never going to be dry and warm all the way through.

You could say that about 99% of all summers, and be right 99% of the time!

But this June has a better chance of being a good one than many in recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You could say that about 99% of all summers, and be right 99% of the time!

But this June has a better chance of being a good one than many in recent years.

The last half/third looking suspect IMO but yes it’s been a good start to summer and I have the sun burn to prove it

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

More likely falling AAM

.

Just for the benefit of those who don’t know what AAM means...it means Atmospheric Angular Momentum.. wow, that’s a load off..or maybe it means something else?..in which case..I apologise!  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A classic summer pattern, azores high ridge- westerly Atlantic driven, and often beds in around the solstice. Until then a good 10 days of very dry summery weather, but subtle signal for slow transition to less settled, note less settled not disturbed.. 

Incidentally that could portend more settled than now as, as long as the jet is in its summer position, high pressure would find it much easier to sit over the UK with fewer troublesome troughs coming in from odd directions.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

So what are we suggesting here then.... Falling Atmospheric Angular Momentum?? That we should enjoy the warm and dry days of June while it lasts as things are going to take a nose dive?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
10 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

So what are we suggesting here then.... Falling Atmospheric Angular Momentum?? That we should enjoy the warm and dry days of June while it lasts as things are going to take a nose dive?

I would suggest that there’s a lot more to it than just AAM!

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

GFS 12z is a better run that its predecessor.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

For what it's worth, I'm not seeing any indication that AAM is likely to fall below the neutral range in the 2nd half of this month, which suggests some loss of warmth and predominant dryness to the weather, but nothing drastic. I expect we'll see GFS make too much of it in the longer range as usual (it has a bias toward dropping AAM too fast & far).

As we then move into July, attention for those seeking long dry, very warm or hot spells should be on whether another MJO event or similar heads out across the tropical Pacific, initiating a process that drives ridges eastward from the Azores, across northern-central Europe, usually via the UK. Without that, a very 'average' sort of month would be most likely, with a cooler and more unsettled one also a possibility if the atmosphere drifted more into a Nina state.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

240 on the EC looks awful here! to me that screams north sea filth for this area, hottest weather W of Pennines, for fun this far out though, but hoping it dosen't turn out like this, potentially brrrr

image.thumb.png.2c2110a06d9eec0c979144ec977086e2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

240 on the EC looks awful here! to me that screams north sea filth for this area, hottest weather W of Pennines, for fun this far out though, but hoping it dosen't turn out like this, potentially brrrr

image.thumb.png.2c2110a06d9eec0c979144ec977086e2.png

I’d rather have semi-unsettled westerlies than that. Cool and cloudy for most of the south.

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ECM takes on the mantle from the GFS run this morning. Would be very annoying going from those charts at 168/192hrs which look great, probably temps wildly in the mid 20s to the 240hrs where temps would be pegged right back. Still it’s an option but around 6-8 decent days ahead between now and then. Hopefully the ECM Ops run tanks against its ensembles.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d rather have semi-unsettled westerlies than that. Cool and cloudy for most of the south.

Cant believe people want unsettled westerlies than a fantastic Ecm like this, leading into a potential Scorchio for all, as wasnt this what happened in late June 2018 when it was cooler in the East for a time.  

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