Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That’s really not the warmest chart.....need the high further east.

It only goes out to T240!  It is pushing that way as @Scorcher notes above.  It is like what I said earlier, push from the Azores, then break off highs into Scandi, this one just hasn’t broke off yet at the end of the ECM run

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

24 minutes ago, markyo said:

Nothing wrong with that at all!

I never said there was anything "wrong" it is just looking cooler than recent runs,  if your looking for warmth or a heatwave then your going to need the high right over us or more to the East. Still could feel very warm and reach low 20s in a set up mid June. 2018 had HP in similar position. 

[DAVID SNOW]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Whoooah!  ECM T240:

Long way off and the usual subject to change, but at face value that's a nice early summer chart, not hot by day and cool at night, obviously that also means no convection/storm potential.

imo.

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

BANK!!

[damianslaw]

Strong signal from the models the azores high will become a key player as we move into the second week of June, often flexes its muscles at this point in the year with the jet shifting to the north. The question is will it be strong enough longer term to fend off the atlantic or will it tease and ridge at times but then ebb away.

Some models are suggesting a break off ridge moving NE, a sign at least for now the atlantic remains subdued.. the question then will be can such a drift hold and build or will that ebb away..

We've seen summers start off with the current pattern, but once the atlantic gains strength it blows the azores high away.. this can often happen latter part of June, as said need to give it another 2 weeks before can feel how the summer might pan out. If this was late June I would be more definate in saying a good summer could well be on the cards, but its only 2 June.

[Bradley in Kent]

Let's face it whether you're looking for cold in winter or heat in summer things can and often do go wrong. We unfortunately live in close proximity to the biggest weather party pooper, The Atlantic!

All the more reason to enjoy decent weather whilst it's here!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

What we don't want to see is Tropical Hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic and threatening to putting a spanner into the works as i think this is the time of year they do!

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

What we don't want to see is Tropical Hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic and threatening to putting a spanner into the works as i think this is the time of year they do!

No it’s not hurricane season main activity between August and October. 

[Sky Full]

A pretty nice set-up for a week in the middle of June....

To be honest, I’d be happy if this pattern was repeated right through the Summer keeping the UK settled and warm, even if it meant no extreme heatwaves.  I’m sure that July and August will have something more intense to keep us interested, though.

 

[northwestsnow]

Excellent ECM 0z for those enjoying the seasonal weather at the moment 

Right out to day 10 the warm settled theme dominates our weather,perhaps the suggestion of something thundery from the south as we head towards the middle of the month ...?

Either way, a cracking first half of June looks fairly certain now...

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent ECM 0z for those enjoying the seasonal weather at the moment 

Right out to day 10 the warm settled theme dominates our weather,perhaps the suggestion of something thundery from the south as we head towards the middle of the month ...?

Either way, a cracking first half of June looks fairly certain now...

Looks good @northwestsnow. First half of June looks to be a banker for fine weather. GWO/AAM plots continue to hold in the high/positive phases, which should mean this pattern holds out for a while yet.  

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, minus10 said:

Talking of which it sure was very warm out there in the gardens today. How was it in the polytunnel ES ?

Anyhow it looks like the heat express is on its way from the Azores on Gfs 12z.....

No polytunnels, yesterday, minus10, but I was suffering from dehydration following Tuesday's sun-drenching. Here are this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles:

     

[summer blizzard]

Some disagreement in the models this morning for the 5-10 day range.

All models build an Azores ridge but handle it differently. The GEM builds the ridge but the high settles to the west sufficiently that a trough drops into Scandinavia. The GFS pumps a semi-permanent Azores Ridge and the Euro tries to cut underneath so that we get more of a hot easterly.

So right now any position on the compass is on the table.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very happy with the ECM output. Goes with the more preferable option of locating the centre of heights to the E or NE of us, so we maintain a warm feed off the mainland. 

At least we aren’t in the midst of a ‘Pineapple Express’ type pattern like in 2007 this June! It’s rather living up to its name of flaming June so far! 

Edited June 3, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Man With Beard]

Clusters D10 ... I'd take any of them. Very nice!

D15 - still mainly settled but tentative signs of high pressure pulling west, so perhaps a fresher injection at some point

Edited June 3, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Some disagreement in the models this morning for the 5-10 day range.

All models build an Azores ridge but handle it differently. The GEM builds the ridge but the high settles to the west sufficiently that a trough drops into Scandinavia. The GFS pumps a semi-permanent Azores Ridge and the Euro tries to cut underneath so that we get more of a hot easterly.

So right now any position on the compass is on the table.

.......... which is exactly why we use the anomaly charts, as theyll most likely be closer to the solution.

 

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

.......... which is exactly why we use the anomaly charts, as theyll most likely be closer to the solution.

 

That looks rock solid for more settled, warm weather.

Could be a very warm first half of the month going by the anomalies.

[Frosty.]

My message is.. don’t get upset by the Gfs 6z op longer term!...look at the GEFS 6z mean / perturbations....summery weather could be very frequent during June..keep calm..there’s no problems..no ripples in the water..mid June may end up FANTASTIC? ! ? 

Edited June 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

I'm not having that GFS 06Z run at all- I imagine it will be an outlier later on in the run.

[Singularity]

Sometimes we see more variability appear closer to the time, as certain assumptions are dropped from the forecast modelling.

GFS 06z is an extreme example of that - it would be in what was the smallest cluster of the 00z EPS:

 

So it has just over one tenth support. 

Notice, however, that a slower variation of the west-shifting (retrograding) high is the largest of the clusters.

So, probability of cooler weather increases during the 3rd week of June - but it might not become unsettled with that. Even at +360 hours, for 18th June, the trough-dominated outcome is still only at 11.8% in the clusters. In fact, changeable westerlies have higher support by then - but still less than a continuation of fine weather (whatever the temps):

I expect this has much to do with how far the atmosphere sways back toward Nina-like during the low part of the AAM cycle. It'll probably be another week or so before they've got that sorted out.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm not having that GFS 06Z run at all- I imagine it will be an outlier later on in the run.

Yup! The Ops run nose dives on the 13th.

 

[philglossop]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yup! The Ops run nose dives on the 13th.

 

That's a classic outlier. Could be linked to thunder breakdown

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ECMWF ensemble mean at T+240 has a 1025mb high over much of the UK, which agrees strongly with NOAA's 8-14 day anomaly charts and shows a remarkably high amount of agreement at that range.

The GFS 06Z is an outlier regarding sea level pressure, though as Singularity mentioned, not entirely without support.  The GFS ensemble mean, though less strong than the ECMWF ensemble mean, also has high pressure persisting out to T+240:

Thus a continuation of the anticyclonic theme looks probable out to 12 June at least.  There are hints of the high drifting westwards but it's worth noting that many model runs had eastern Britain under northerlies into early June about a week ago, and it didn't happen.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Frosty.]

Have you ever seen a better ECM 0z ensemble mean @ T+240 hours..hmmmmm?..think carefully ..there’s even something extra from google..bet nobody else ever thought of this..well I am autistic...!!!!!!!!!?? ..

 

 

Edited June 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

1 minute ago, philglossop said:

That's a classic outlier. Could be linked to thunder breakdown

Nope - trough dropping down from the north, no thundery breakdown there, just summer misery. Hopefully it won't transpire!