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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 heat fest incoming:

A4CE2DC6-EA08-4F9A-9067-443721964324.thumb.gif.35e4b9bcee0360c526b9e4954fce901d.gif448D6C5A-0DFD-478F-B530-08ADE69FD8A9.thumb.gif.3ead17c55af3a6c065588e0bf5f7b134.gif

That red porpoise of heat is poised

Incidentally, my iPad has determined that given any empty text box, my most likely 3 words I’m likely to enter are: ‘I’ ‘Yes’ and ‘ECM’.  That is a bit worrying!

That high pressure slips a little east and the blow torch floodgates will be opened. Could be not to dissimilar to the late June 2019 plume. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That high pressure slips a little east and the blow torch floodgates will be opened. Could be not to dissimilar to the late June 2019 plume. 

Hopefully without the North Sea drift which gave surface temperatures of 18C with 24C uppers!

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nothing too 'traumatic' hidden within the latest GEFS ensembles, usual GFS 2m underestimates notwithstanding::drunk-emoji:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

Looks like a fantastic few weeks coming up just as summer starts. More importantly, the weather in Bournemouth this weekend looks very usable indeed and hoping for some great views across the English Channel when I play golf at Isle of Purbeck on Saturday (@Alderc I'll wave at you from the 5th tee!). 

Thanks to everyone who has advised me regarding the weather for the upcoming weekend - looks like it'll be a good one! 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models showing a predominantly warm dry sunny outlook, I use the word 'warm' nothing overly hot on the immediate horizon, but consistently high teens to mid 20s is very good for early June.

Our summer base state tends to bed in around the solstice, need to give it another 2 weeks I say before can say likely trend for the summer. We've had good starts to summers go poor by the solstice last year a good example, some where the good weather has held sway right through to late July but not sustained into August think 2018, some where things changed late June to goo weather such as 95 and 2013.

I'm reminded back to 96 which produced very warm locally hot weather end May and into June, the following summer was very decent not overly hot but consistently warm, sunny and often dry with some rain at times, I'd take that! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models showing a predominantly warm dry sunny outlook, I use the word 'warm' nothing overly hot on the immediate horizon, but consistently high teens to mid 20s is very good for early June.

Our summer base state tends to bed in around the solstice, need to give it another 2 weeks I say before can say likely trend for the summer. We've had good starts to summers go poor by the solstice last year a good example, some where the good weather has held sway right through to late July but not sustained into August think 2018, some where things changed late June to goo weather such as 95 and 2013.

I'm reminded back to 96 which produced very warm locally hot weather end May and into June, the following summer was very decent not overly hot but consistently warm, sunny and often dry with some rain at times, I'd take that! 

2004 and 2007 had good starts to June, and went downhill fairly quickly. So I am always quite wary!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensembles, here’s the mean, and where’s the jet stream going? T240:

1526E240-07E8-460B-8BC4-A9651F95C03E.thumb.jpeg.fdf2de0195eb6f28e324e0194e85f4b3.jpeg

Spread:

0EBEC9AD-5B6D-4FA5-B5D4-99114C93C534.thumb.gif.4af080f80089da6afeb1ea185f84d62b.gif

It is all going north, and will be for a while, which leaves us in the UK to enjoy nice settled summer weather.  

A chance that all the first 10 days of June will see 25C exceeded somewhere.

Such warmth is common in the second half of June, but not often such a prolonged warm period in the first half.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nothing too 'traumatic' hidden within the latest GEFS ensembles, usual GFS 2m underestimates notwithstanding::drunk-emoji:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

A noticeable improvement from last night in the mean- it's looking very promising indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

All 's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking ☀️ next week.  I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life. 

850.png

850.png

heat.png

hot.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by 38.7°C
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

GFS 18z you beauty!

1735534756_GFS18z.thumb.PNG.3aa0fa2fe785a6ee4e21047a094ad198.PNG624908636_GFS18z2.thumb.PNG.af6227409a47c64deb1914e42ba8a23d.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Bit scared to look at the models, 8am and no posts

DEA04FB3-8C64-4FDE-884A-C93DF9B04CA4.thumb.png.e35296295c8ed7b1e9b655f8baba5374.pngFB327D4C-C7B2-4F11-A51C-215D11464A93.thumb.png.dc2fb4f4fb9159420e9f99206d967398.png08F7B6B6-E28C-45AB-871F-20EF31B0DD68.thumb.png.4195fc46ec97ca1f390b0c23d9d8b4d8.png
 

Steady as she goes. Looks very good still, with settled and warm weather dominating for the next 10 days at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The only issue I have this morning from an IMBY perspective is the positioning of the high as it moves in after the weekend. This time it's more of an extension of the Azores High which can mean a fair bit of cloud (and sometimes drizzle) for areas from the Midlands north as it moves in- I hope this won't be the case this time.

It's certainly looking great for southern areas and probably for all of us eventually.

It looks like the setup next week will be more favourable to eastern areas than the one we have currently- at first anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
13 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

You missed the post about the foehn effect on Liverpool when theres a Southeasterly then.... 

Ive never noticed airports being warmer, and certainly not enough to warm a whole area, im sure the scientists would have worked that one out.

Isn't there a station at Formby as well? That's been the highest in the country a few times, especially in spring.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

Got to be very happy with the. ECM 0Z mean going forward. We deserve this after that grotty May. Nothing but warm air building.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Not a great run for imported thunderstorms but would be if those storms could come up from Benelux as they have done on previous runs, between Friday and Sunday. 

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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
10 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

All 's on the GFS 18z and its looking very stonking ☀️ next week.  I think our first 30C will easily come before Solstice if these model runs come to life. 

850.png

850.png

heat.png

hot.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukmaxtemp.png

The 13th June chart has caught my eye. I think the date record is 28.7C from memory. There must be at least a slim chance of that falling this year. 

Otherwise the models generally painting a picture of a June most will be happy with. Warm without being outrageously hot. Mostly settled but not completely dry.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
35 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

The 13th June chart has caught my eye. I think the date record is 28.7C from memory. There must be at least a slim chance of that falling this year. 

Otherwise the models generally painting a picture of a June most will be happy with. Warm without being outrageously hot. Mostly settled but not completely dry.

The only day in June where the daily temp record is below 30c...

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Not a great run for imported thunderstorms but would be if those storms could come up from Benelux as they have done on previous runs, between Friday and Sunday. 

is this all you think about ?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 06Z looking like another stonker: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png   

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

is this all you think about ?

Maybe... 

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