Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[bluearmy]

 

v promising 

[sheikhy]

Ecm mean!!!!got some itchy red eyes to look forward to thanks to the sunny dry weather and loads of pollen but i take that if we get the heat at the same time!!long time coming i say

[Iceman2606]

A very HP dominated & warm week on the cards with tonight's models.☀ Maybe turning very warm & humid for a time mid-week.?

[ANYWEATHER]

And Tomorrow's charts will show something different!  

[Djdazzle]

26 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

And Tomorrow's charts will show something different!  

With cross-model agreement and positive background signals, I think we ate OK for at least a week of fine weather.

[minus10]

Seems that the warm air is becoming established now on the output. Certainly the ECM 12z shows it throughout the run with thundery potential on a number of occasions:

Cold April, Wet May, Flaming June?? .....sweltering gardener 

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by minus10

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Seems that the warm air is becoming established now on the output. Certainly the ECM 12z shows it throughout the run with thundery potential on a number of occasions:

Cold April, Wet May, Flaming June?? .....sweltering gardener 

 

Vegetation and flowers will flourish after all the recent rain, warm boost from the sun. Outlook reminds me if the switcharound we saw in latter stage of May 12 after weeks of cold wet weather.. the cold this time being even longer in length but the wetness shorter given the dry April.. in 2012 we had the dry in March.. some similarities then with 2012, let's hope it not a short blip as happened in 2012!

[Iceman2606]

UKV temp charts looking good for next week!? Showing low to mid twenties widely for Tues & Wed and even the possibility of reaching the high twenties in the SE on Sat but a long way off yet so unlikely at this stage. Lots to be watching.

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

UKV temp charts looking good for next week!? Showing low to mid twenties widely for Tues & Wed and even the possibility of reaching the high twenties in the SE on Sat but a long way off yet so unlikely at this stage. Lots to be watching.

UKV only goes out to 120 hours via 03Z and 15Z, so I'm not sure how you can see next Wednesday, or even next Saturday?!

[Methuselah]

Good morning, all -- this morning's GFS 00Z is shaping up nicely, as mainland Europe goes into the furnace, for the fourth year running:

     

     

     

I blame it on the Chinese!

Edited May 28, 2021 by Ed Stone

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Good morning, all -- this morning's GFS 900Z is shaping up, nicely, as mainland Europe goes into the furnace, for the fourth year running:

     

     

     

I blame it on the Chinese!

Gfs seems to be moving towards yesterdays ukmo and ecm!!cuttin off that  low to the south west more and more!!man my house is warm already and the real warmth aint kicked in yet!!hows the ukmo mate?

[NApplewhite]

Sunshine in N. Wales today contrary to the forecasts of rain all day . 

[mb018538]

Good morning folks,

What a nice position to be in with some sunshine and warmth on the cards for many for the next 5 days. I guess the question now is how long it will last, and to what extent the settled weather and warmth lasts?

Let's look at UKMO. It keeps the trough far enough out of the way so that the warm weather hangs on until at least Thursday:



GEM keeps the toasty weather going for a long time. All next week and right through to Sunday the following weekend. A likely warm outlier:



GFS isn't anything like as warm, keeping things up to a best of 25c through the middle of next week:



Lots of variability as you'd expect. At the moment we look safe until Tuesday. As the latest fax chart  below shows, trouble is brewing away to the SW, and could come into play midweek onwards. Could be nice if thunderstorms are your thing, or equally it could stay just out of the way!



 

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

And Tomorrow's charts will show something different!  

 

8 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

With cross-model agreement and positive background signals, I think we ate OK for at least a week of fine weather.

turning warm with a  potential for some v warm/hot

settled for a short while (possibly longer) but potentially pretty thundery

sort of a win,win 

even a three fine days and a thunderstorm could well then be rinse and repeat ......

Edited May 28, 2021 by bluearmy

[Guest]

Still lots be resolved post about Tuesday, what will happen to the low, where will it develop, over the UK, just to the west? The answer is we just dont know this morning. 

Interestingly stronger agreement on quicker breakdown from the GFS ensembles verses GEM this morning. Both models ensembles pretty much back their respective Ops run. Some of those GEM ensembles are magnificent..

ECM much messier this morning with low pressure and probably thundery breakdown through the middle of next week.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Still lots be resolved post about Tuesday, what will happen to the low, where will it develop, over the UK, just to the west? The answer is we just dont know this morning. 

Interestingly stronger agreement on quicker breakdown from the GFS ensembles verses GEM this morning. Both models ensembles pretty much back their respective Ops run. Some of those GEM ensembles are magnificent..

ECM much messier this morning with low pressure and probably thundery breakdown through the middle of next week.

You'd be right there - ECM does indeed turn thundery by Thursday. Still very warm until then though, with 25c still showing Wednesday:

Even Thursday could be pretty warm again, though this temperature profile is skewed by predicted storms etc and would change:

All in all though - if we include yesterday which was pretty warm for many....it looks like 7 consecutive very good days for a large swathe of the UK, which looked almost unthinkable 10-14 days ago. A definite win after the dreadful May so far. 

 

[Djdazzle]

17 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 explains why there all not in here banging the drums this morning , either that there not up yet

Or maybe because in the reliable frame, the charts are showing pretty much the same as yesterday.

[eastangliawx]

23 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 explains why there all not in here banging the drums this morning , either that there not up yet

They are out. Looks like most of the latest models now wanting to keep the warmth going till Friday atleast. Gfs still the quickest on a breakdown with it coming on Friday, but extended further than was previously suggesting and I would guess this will continue as it still has the low unusually deep compared to the others. Many positives this morning.

Heres ECM, GFS, GEM and ICON at 168h (next friday) so that we can see the differences on the low. 

 

 

[mb018538]

34 minutes ago, samwx said:

They are out. Looks like most of the latest models now wanting to keep the warmth going till Friday atleast. Gfs still the quickest on a breakdown with it coming on Friday, but extended further than was previously suggesting and I would guess this will continue as it still has the low unusually deep compared to the others. Many positives this morning.

Heres ECM, GFS, GEM and ICON at 168h (next friday) so that we can see the differences on the low. 

 

 

Also- the ECM op idea of dropping a pool of colder air over the UK at day 10 isn't supported by the ensembles. 

The scorching hot runs of yesterday where 15c 850 air was in play seems to have been wiped off (unsurprisingly), so we are left with a mean that supports temperatures in the low to mid 20s for the next week at least. After that it's very sketchy.

[mushymanrob]

Ill just park these here without comment... other than to say that the start of summer looks like being the best start for a while...

 

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ill just park these here without comment... other than to say that the start of summer looks like being the best start for a while...

 

Looks ok to me! Though these anomalies (much like the rest of the output) massively underplayed the amount of ridging that is now forecast to build to the E/NE of the UK. Check this chart from 3 days ago and we've got just a gentle westerly flow prevailing. The latest one above shows a big buckling of the 500mb flow, hence the much warmer outlook.

[mushymanrob]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks ok to me! Though these anomalies (much like the rest of the output) massively underplayed the amount of ridging that is now forecast to build to the E/NE of the UK. Check this chart from 3 days ago and we've got just a gentle westerly flow prevailing. The latest one above shows a big buckling of the 500mb flow, hence the much warmer outlook.

I find that when a quite flat upper flow is predicted like the chart from 3 days ago, and it has a slight positive pressure anomaly, like that chart does, then a buckling / ridging often occurs soon after. So the shift towards a stronger ridging on the NOAAs isnt a surprise.

Im not so sure @johnholmes would agree though, im a bit more maverick and try to predict where those charts are heading. lol.

[Sunny76]

15 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Nearer low 20’s c although the Gfs tends to underestimate maxima? so mid 20’s c for favoured spots..anyway, beats low to mid teens c which has been the crap diet for much of May!  

 

 

25-27c is where we need to be now. Not south of 20c.

[mb018538]

Lots of uncertainty at day 6 on the ECM clusters. Models struggling to resolve how the low to the S/SW behaves.

[johnholmes]

Friday 28 May 2021

Another look at the anomaly charts

Ec again shows the trough but this time a bit further w than the Wed one showed, the slight ridging showing on the Wed output, ne of Scandinavia, still just about there. Perhaps the most noticeable feature is the decrease in contour flow across the UK, especially in the south, with quite marked troughing w’ern France and Iberia, possibly suggesting a sly flow into the UK, instability?

NOAA today has organised the +ve signal again into two areas, one not dissimilar to ec ne of Scandinavia the other again, the other off ne Russia. It has also introduced an extension of the trough out of w Greenland se towards Iberia, not there previously. The two items, ridge/trough, need to stay there for 48 hours to give a better guide. But, along with what ec shows, may already be suggesting a more sly flow into the UK for the 6-10 day period. Some suggestion on the 8-14 of both these could be true. I’ll wait 48 hours for confirmation or otherwise.

Just seen the posts above, so yes mushy I’m almost always a touch cautious for the first 6-10 chart showing a difference from its previous run.

I don’t disagree with your post or that of mb. The probability is there, say 40% at the moment for an extension of warmth beyond BH Monday, probably not as settled as the next 3-4 days could well be though?

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Edited May 28, 2021 by johnholmes