Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM mean and spread T240:

61C3646E-E9F5-42A9-9BA6-2AA86E9A7955.thumb.gif.e01074ab6b6b1845546e5ca914ab9c72.gifF57295AF-33EA-4262-81E3-01EFE60300C8.thumb.gif.2ffe1c8e7d2d3b22ad697cc578a502be.gif

First point, UK under high pressure with high confidence given the spread.  Atlantic trough yes, but only a few realisations bring up a plume, well that’s my analysis of it anyway.  Any road, it portends much summery weather to be sure…

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A nice warmer and predominantly more settled looking ECM 12z ensemble mean for the majority tonight...the Azores high / ridge soon becoming increasingly influential...let’s get this party started!!! ☀️ ?  

0110535A-4D93-4430-A187-A63108E57552.thumb.gif.ecf03819797db491357e3cf3952b1234.gifB6F8D1F8-0581-4FC1-9FC9-37C1A7C6BF0B.thumb.gif.f294ed54397d26939913d11be3a88d06.gifC7DD0356-E1E7-4BA5-A977-6ED17F38A820.thumb.gif.1287c14e73c4738e3214ba28327f576c.gif0E933A65-06A4-4CDF-9F73-CDEF4E81D31F.thumb.gif.75a894848106f1b16ab40aaf2471464d.gif

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean and spread T240:

61C3646E-E9F5-42A9-9BA6-2AA86E9A7955.thumb.gif.e01074ab6b6b1845546e5ca914ab9c72.gifF57295AF-33EA-4262-81E3-01EFE60300C8.thumb.gif.2ffe1c8e7d2d3b22ad697cc578a502be.gif

First point, UK under high pressure with high confidence given the spread.  Atlantic trough yes, but only a few realisations bring up a plume, well that’s my analysis of it anyway.  

Given how rough the last few months have been, even a modestly warm UK high will feel like paradise weather wise and as we've seen in previous summers, it can setup a good groundwork for some more interesting stuff down the line...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Things really starting to sort themselves out this evening.  ECM clusters T192-T240 illustrates:

4415F502-2EBA-4DB4-94BA-52092FEBA9F1.thumb.png.6cb7dcbbdf6693e8c61da9c25faafce0.png

The Atlantic trough, euro high in clusters 1 and 2 , cluster 3 is a bit messy.  Take that!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'll post this in here, because it relates to the current divergence between models. I know it's from Those Who Cannot Be Named, but, IMO, it's central to what we are discussing?

PS: I've been having quite a few probs with YouTube today!

But anyway, the GEFS 12Z ensembles are more than okay:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png   image.thumb.png.17f3cb8e2c7425ebe35f4ac90abf2822.png

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
39 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Got the temperature chart for friday mate?!!

GFS was 9 degrees at 3pm and wet for my location

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS was 9 degrees at 3pm and wet for my location

Yeh lets hope it looks better for friday on 18z!ecm dont look as bad for friday i think!!more like 16 degrees!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Big improvements in the weather starting from tomorrow and lasting well into the Bank Holiday Weekend with temps in the mid-teens to low twenties widely. Looking good into next week also with GFS & UKMO keeping it very warm for many.☀

UKMO.thumb.PNG.2daa2dda4d8c044ae6f2d592c3f3da8e.PNGGFS.thumb.PNG.68d1457bde3571a4fde0faf0b148e680.PNGECMWF.thumb.PNG.d1be8129c1e7cba75958aae2af15989b.PNGGEM.thumb.PNG.d4b5483a7eddda5a6dd39cb9f0ca5d61.PNG

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

A Gentle, kind weekend for many of us....after that into next week Ecm shows more settled conditions allbeit with some showers and Gfs shows it warming up significantly but with thundery rain, especially for the south.. !!!

h850t850eu-35.png

ecmt850.168-3.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Quite amazing how badly certain models/outlooks have struggled with this upcoming warmth.

ECM weekly issued on Monday night…slightly below average UK and Ireland wide.

31/05 to 07/06.

Yep flipped warm not impressed. GFS triumph again indeed they was all over the place few days ago but GFS has caught on first.

392394776_14-kmEPSGlobalEurope2-mTemperatureAnom.thumb.gif.f29bb1bc16b48e2b0145ee498890b9cf.gif

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

UKMO still looking very warm into the middle of next week on this mornings 00z run. Mid 20s likely:

image.thumb.png.daa9a1a0a3c11e98886e7b573690a58b.pngimage.thumb.png.2468e1f422435dce5f478cbe2c0024ca.pngimage.thumb.png.524b1de73f76e60abf3acfb970af1590.pngimage.thumb.png.47ed4f325f01dec2fb5f30e3fc06e3a4.png

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GEM also bringing the heat from Monday through to Wednesday:

GEMOPUK00_111_5.pngGEMOPUK00_135_5.pngGEMOPUK00_159_5.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
7 minutes ago, samwx said:

Wow! Complete turn around from the ECM!

ECMOPEU00_168_1 (1).png

ECMOPEU00_168_2 (1).png

ECMOPEU00_192_1 (4).png

ECMOPEU00_192_2 (3).png

ECM is ridiculous this morning. 

image.thumb.png.921aeeb5101289d5c3cd6175f3b58af8.png

850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!
 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Ukmo very good and warm till the end if its run!!ecm completely flipped now fron a couple of days ago and now agrees with the extra amplitude to the east and is hot all the way till the end of the run!!!least said about gfs the better!although it aint that bad but i think its handling of cut off lows still hasnt improved!!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Howie said:

What the hell is the GFS playing at

image.thumb.png.656cad72501627f2306b420d2c437529.png

Little bit on the cool side after the next week, but not completely out of the question. Fine margins between this and a hot run like ECM!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
37 minutes ago, samwx said:

Wow! Complete turn around from the ECM!

ECMOPEU00_168_1 (1).png

ECMOPEU00_168_2 (1).png

ECMOPEU00_192_1 (4).png

ECMOPEU00_192_2 (3).png

This follows about 20% of runs from last night's ensemble set. Would threaten the 30C mark - what a shock that would be. Still, as others say, it's not the consensus, and expectations for now should remain a little below this bar.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I'm not panicking about the GFS this morning- remember the cut-off low it showed for this weekend on a couple of runs a few days back?

Just the typical fluctuations from run to run.

The ECM is spectacular this morning though. Could be a very memorable spell if anything like that comes off. An outlier no doubt but not totally out of the question.

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is ridiculous this morning. 

image.thumb.png.921aeeb5101289d5c3cd6175f3b58af8.png

850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!
 

Hell Mb.

A very interesting chart. If it did come off what temperature would we expect to experience here in the southeast?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...