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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

With UKMO I am struck in particular by the position of the trough in the Atlantic at T144:

AB6960CC-1DEC-4222-8C9C-5C86BFD5E7AA.thumb.png.0ae71bac01fca11f271b4c622a939589.pngFDD2E64F-BBA7-403D-91FA-99968A2C077B.thumb.gif.f19fd02bad88c8421803ca2b018cc202.gif

Exactly where we need it setting for UK heat, and plume scenarios, and on the T850s, the red porpoise from the south is nosing towards us.  

Hold this pattern for a while and summer will follow big time!  Quite a switch round in the model output over the last couple of days, as hinted a few days ago, to be fair.  

To those worried about a drop in AAM, it is forecast to remain above average on CFS, for what that’s worth, and the dip isn’t for a week or two:

13710292-E32B-4535-B5C2-0F58FA42DA54.thumb.png.1ae2a2a0dd5e288aca146c3fd34128da.png

So with that and the models I’ve got some confidence that summer will be here to stay, more or less, from the weekend.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Hi all , been lurking in the background for a while , looks like a chance of some tasty conditions this weekend and perhaps beyond . Ecm so far attached. 
 

oh and a question? What's happened to Navgem on meteociel ? It's my favourite and it's gone . 

37DAEDD7-31C4-42B7-B22D-67321EE0FDF6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hi all , been lurking in the background for a while , looks like a chance of some tasty conditions this weekend and perhaps beyond . Ecm so far attached. 
 

oh and a question? What's happened to Navgem on meteociel ? It's my favourite and it's gone . 

37DAEDD7-31C4-42B7-B22D-67321EE0FDF6.gif

Think it was a victim of the Meteociel fire, they are gradually restoring the content but maybe NAVGEM not a priority .  I also miss the archive charts dating back to 1871, hope they return soon too.   

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Certainly not home and dry yet despite the excellent GFS Ops run and Ukmo. The gfs ensembles have a clear split through next week. Quite a few members bring in a sharp upper trough, but to be fair just as many really very warm ensembles. All to play for but a million times better than this time last week. 
 

539853879_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n14.thumb.jpeg.f81951740f811c97649ae9b725edd474.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T120, note the cut off low I was talking about yesterday, or maybe the day before (difficult to tell in Groundhog Day!):

1969F3E4-FE68-4DED-BBCF-52162FA20510.thumb.jpeg.353af685954fc4d9d2527b936dc2dada.jpeg

This the catalyst for the trough that develops, T144:

FB4ED2B8-7423-43F1-B537-401ED8B74752.thumb.gif.553909d5aace43b2925e265836c1fda9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another one worth dedicating to whomever wrote the BBC's monthly outlook!

539853879_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n14.thum

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T168:

1EE18CEF-E98B-4C03-892F-056B647E27D4.thumb.gif.c50a717129fe0bc21ecb4ebd448f31e1.gif

What we are seeing here, and looking at other models as well is a transition to Atlantic trough UK - Europe ridge, which after the last month is a big pattern change, depending on how it goes, I wouldn’t rule out some hot thundery spells as the pattern works its way through….

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I don’t normally comment on a run in progress but the ECM 12z operational certainly shows a spell of fine and warmer weather from the near future into FI!!! ☀️...makes a pleasant change from discussing nasty troughs and unseasonable chill doesn’t it?  

EC315573-1C4B-4F83-902D-C2E7E2C00461.thumb.gif.bf56f3f3056714738b2fc04af057ade2.gif56765069-2131-4FB2-A12E-74EB5285246A.thumb.gif.38e98a4e489163b1ed38471ffca05819.gif97434947-5790-4B28-A858-DCFA5EB17FEB.thumb.gif.17ed14fe7f1a053aafcddd90720755cf.gif0AB7D209-C145-4B01-B9E8-C2734AA9C0D1.thumb.gif.6465b5c8cf4855ba4f0b093a41c07ca4.gif33FDC157-9531-448D-ADBB-759F0EF27B41.thumb.gif.8d58b73713ba680820b1dbdce15da59f.gifBA204416-0EFB-4521-82EA-7B003F38021D.thumb.gif.49cc5dce267809043ae73519e0319785.gifDA5A0C1C-B6E7-46EF-A869-BCCC49926054.thumb.gif.98a2e6eba2b863c3c84772f762e09b51.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

1EE18CEF-E98B-4C03-892F-056B647E27D4.thumb.gif.c50a717129fe0bc21ecb4ebd448f31e1.gif

What we are seeing here, and looking at other models as well is a transition to Atlantic trough UK - Europe ridge, which after the last month is a big pattern change, depending on how it goes, I wouldn’t rule out some hot thundery spells as the pattern works its way through….

It’s a very positive pattern in terms of getting summer off to a good start.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s a very positive pattern in terms of getting summer off to a good start.

Yes, it is, and you can see why on the ECM T216 as there’s now forcing from the south to get the Azores ridge into gear:

98EAA2E6-3121-4BE3-93B3-138E29850EC9.thumb.gif.aaf9a03fa5b4008293c75331a6aa52e1.gif

One way traffic from here, I think.  Green light here.  It has taken some time, but now I think we are in business…

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

If this came off, it'd be a nice mid-humidity heat, a day to sit out in the garden and watch the storms that could possibly glow up looking at other charts aound the 3rd.

image.thumb.png.ce2576221463b8f38c4f3b482ffcf688.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240 lovely jubbly:

E848E32C-38A1-4DC9-867D-7710EC61CCF0.thumb.gif.419a0964ecdd7267dca1378c7fb90152.gif2EFB3A5D-8914-4001-BDB5-0BAED368021C.thumb.gif.340f18d367631a4385d6712e4e4dbbf8.gif

What a way to go into June after the dismal May, with potential to add…but it is of course at T240 at the mo.  But the start of summer isn’t, it is this weekend and it is looking promising…

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

54F5BB63-D770-47A3-ADF0-A57669FFE9E4.thumb.jpeg.8808fc398a437897f10ed0b1244ffe40.jpeg

A very decent ECM too, which has Thursday next week as the warmest day. Into the mid 20s. Can’t grumble about the output tonight!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Chances of 25 degrees into June, good last few runs pointing towards more normal temperatures and possibly high CAPE, which even though it's far out is likely, again storms from France possible as well on some charts but overall could be a nice end to May and start to June.

image.thumb.png.642fe32e37771abc285c8992ba3dc8db.png

This is just the minimum.

image.thumb.png.6eb90f74932db36c76e08efceacfc5b9.png

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

That's a really splendid ECM tonight - memories of a cold spring will be long gone on that. Chances of 24-27C I'd expect. But wait till 00Z to see if it can consolidate

Any temperature charts for tomorrow onward from ecm?!!friday dont look as warm on 12z gfs compared to its 06z run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
17 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

If this came off, it'd be a nice mid-humidity heat, a day to sit out in the garden and watch the storms that could possibly glow up looking at other charts aound the 3rd.

image.thumb.png.ce2576221463b8f38c4f3b482ffcf688.png

Aye, if these come off, we haven't had a Spring this year

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, if these come off, we haven't had a Spring this year

Help - In desperate need of warmth so that I don't need two layers on IN SPRING.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, sheikhy said:

Any temperature charts for tomorrow onward from ecm?!!friday dont look as warm on 12z gfs compared to its 06z run!!

For central/eastern England, tomorrow/Friday look mid-high teens, weekend looks like warming from high teens to low 20s, into the mid 20s middle of next week.

BTW - really interesting new ensemble tool for max temperatures on weather.us (will update about 10pm), this is the 00Z run for Leicester 

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

Leicester, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct comparison for several parameters.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Location: Suffolk

Navgem 

12z vs 0z (yesterday)180h

- Can't get much better of an improvement between runs than that lol. Cool and wet yesterday morning to hot this afternoon

NVGOPEU12_168_2 (1).png

NVGOPEU00_180_2.png

Edited by samwx
mistake
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I hope the Azores High stays this friendly all summer?...a mostly Fantastic ECM 12z op for the majority of the u k! ☀️...changes are indeed afoot! ? FACFBAD1-E129-4A95-BCF8-4AD43F8D0C7C.thumb.png.e1e0261d374473398e9866fdd897c485.png9FDEFE04-A191-49C7-B294-262413D988BA.thumb.jpeg.b10d8144bc65aa0dde53e663d1d78eb1.jpeg 

C08AF447-A57B-4E58-86F2-76A8844C2021.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Quite amazing how badly certain models/outlooks have struggled with this upcoming warmth.

ECM weekly issued on Monday night…slightly below average UK and Ireland wide.

31/05 to 07/06.

3FCB011A-F859-4B93-942F-CD2012E7E1E9.thumb.png.5c9ac2b6914bc531167feadfcbc58319.png

Met Office outlook yesterday (30/05 to 08/06)…note the slightly below average temperatures

A9433B87-F74B-42E7-BD2C-F2DB491B3D2E.thumb.jpeg.7fbab43c3ce77d4bbb620c7e16b66b27.jpeg
 

Today (31/05 to 09/06)…note the remaining around or above average temperatures! 

FD888423-9A12-4DDB-ADBC-E0C481CF4992.thumb.jpeg.5a4364638f3f0c4155928004717b563d.jpeg
 

Fair play to the GFS - barely a wobble and remained mostly consistent with a warmer outlook. 
This could all still go the other way next week (breakdown midweek) but it looks a long way off at the moment.

Anyways…what about this for a chart!?

Sunday 15:00 - only slight concern is the threat of low cloud/mist around some E/SE England coastal locations! Could sneak further inland at times. 
One to keep an eye on.

40157999-0E17-4D55-8811-EE4E4EAC0655.thumb.png.0a5249b97fe1bb3f30a5708097ecf470.png
 

ECM still bringing that rainfall into NW UK on Monday - track/detail subject too change!

12:00

7BBD0BA1-8B2D-4F68-9B6A-AC413B9E253C.thumb.jpeg.28066732ddf3f1e783fed4ad822ae910.jpeg
 

UKV 15:00

79444583-865E-4CB9-8EFD-36866A10E807.thumb.png.d0cc7b1cb4ece61017dde299d091856a.png
 

Temperatures soaring for parts of England and Wales.
 

A2EB78D1-82D4-464E-94D0-51408F91CF3A.thumb.png.e3858cfb0423d9e7e9f6a10e733ed6d4.png

 

Got the temperature chart for friday mate?!!

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