Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Frosty.]

Honestly, there are so many good signs in the GEFS 6z that I can’t show them all!!!....but to cut a long story short...June shows great potential currently!...and even before that, there’s a marked improvement just around the corner..there’s even some plume potential further into the run...let the good times / warmer times roll! ️ ⛈ ?

 

[Eagle Eye]

Looking okay still on the charts.

If this lot was electrical wow. 

It's possible with the CAPE around that time. 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Methuselah]

There may be little support for 15C T850s, but who cares? It's been a long while since we last saw GEFS temp. ensembles anything like these.

     

[Don]

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I read somewhere (maybe on here) that transient, very hot plumes could become more common in the years ahead.

They've become fairly common since 2015!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Don said:

They've become fairly common since 2015!

True. I think one of them, at some point, will be a less transient affair, which is when we will challenge 40C.

Hoping that this afternoon’s runs will continue with the general improvements.

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

True. I think one of them, at some point, will be a less transient affair, which is when we will challenge 40C.

Hoping that this afternoon’s runs will continue with the general improvements.

 

I agree and dreading it!  I think we will breach 40C within the next 5-10 years, if not sooner.....

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

I agree and dreading it!  I think we will breach 40C within the next 5-10 years, if not sooner.....

Let's get 20C this year before we start talking about 40C.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I seeing (or imagining) 30C T850s down over North Africa? If it really is that hot, down there, a couple of plumes might see us record 100F, for the third year in succession!

     

Be that as it may, we do seem to have reached a tipping-point regarding summer maxes?

I think it happened in June 2019 but a combination of North sea winds and it being too early in the year meant we missed out on high surface temperatures despite record breaking 850s over Britain

Edited May 26, 2021 by 38.7°C

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Tell you what…grim day for our Irish friends tomorrow!  
High cloud creeping into parts of Wales and SW England through the afternoon. 
Rest of us…plenty of sunshine but cloud bubbling up at times through the afternoon
Decent temperatures - UK high 20/21C tomorrow. 

15:00

 

Friday has always been flagged up as the main day for cloud cover ruining things at times - don’t expect glorious sunshine. (As per UKV/Met Office current output)
Temperatures a wee bit lower than Thursday - London 19C (degree higher for Heathrow) Manchester 17C, Bournemouth 17C and Glasgow a tropical 15C with drizzle. (All based on current Met Office output)

09:00 - light rain for me! 

 

15:00 - This one to be confirmed… 

 

Saturday is much better…more in the way of sunshine but still that threat of cloud at times.

Sunday…most of us are finally in business for sunshine galore! UK top temperature approaching 23C - England, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland and Wales all forecast 20C+. 

Monday pushing 24C on current output - London area! (Very slight chance we could challenge the highest temperature of Spring so far…24.5C on 30/03 - long shot though!)

Looking further ahead…Met Office outlook have just rolled out my worst fear (IMBY) every Summer.  
The dreaded split…

Period 31/05 to 09/06.

 

It has been a bonkers/crazy year of weather for us…comforting to know that some things never change as Summer begins! Sod off for once NW/SE split! 

All the best!

Bournemouth 4C with sleet?!

[Uncertainty]

Breakdown cancelled on the UKMO?

[mb018538]

Belting day 6 UKMO chart tonight. Low pressure beaten off with a stick, staying warm and dry into Tuesday.

[mb018538]

Day 6 ukmo 850s. Up to 10c in the south, so 25c+ would be on the cards in this setup.

[sheikhy]

Following my post from earlier about the cut off high to the east and across scandi!!the ukmo 12z does just that!!beauty!!!hopefully ecm does the same!!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Day 6 ukmo 850s. Up to 10c in the south, so 25c+ would be on the cards in this setup.

A lovely chart for the first day of summer.

[mb018538]

GFS is almost identical for Tuesday and does indeed show 25c being reached, with a large swathe of the country nice and warm too. A nice first day of June if tonight’s output is to be believed, and only 6 days away....so very plausible. I hope

[tight isobar]

IHowdy all. Popped in to basically highlights the much now (craved evolve).. even as a coldie I still love the sun/heat...  anyway this looks like a prime set up evolving where as the high pressure takes hold.. we get a heat pump from very good sourcing- and indeed a notable settled/warm/ hot =hotter spell as we gain!!!.. why not we’ve waited long enough!!.. my hunch is thing may become inferno explosive .. as the anti ups.. and we develop the flow .. the temp plots- are beginning to note this well.. ciao enjoy ya summer

Edited May 26, 2021 by tight isobar

[Howie]

Looks like next weekend could be quite wet 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

Looks like next weekend could be quite wet 

This Friday looking worse WTF? 9 degrees at 3pm? should be warmer in 7 months

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

Looks like next weekend could be quite wet 

Based on?

[Methuselah]

This (should it materialise) could be a fantastic 'beer garden Sunday'. . . might even scrape 28C, given ideal conditions?

     

[Howie]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Based on?

GFS consistently bringing up a thundery low in very warm and humid air. Obviously very far out so it will definitely change lol

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

IHowdy all. Popped in to basically highlights the much now (craved evolve).. even as a coldie I still love the sun/heat...  anyway this looks like a prime set up evolving where as the high pressure takes hold.. we get a heat pump from very good sourcing- and indeed a notable settled/warm/ hot =hotter spell as we gain!!!.. why not we’ve waited long enough!!.. my hunch is thing may become inferno explosive .. as the anti ups.. and we develop the flow .. the temp plots- are beginning to note this well.. ciao enjoy ya summer

Seems like the both of us have popped in just in time for the warm weather!!!aint posted since february!!!looking good!if ecm moves towards gfs and ukmo then its pretty much in the bag!!

[Frosty.]

I can see why this is a Hot Topic ...there’s some hot potential within the GEFS 12z..small sample here to warm the cockles!!!  

 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

GEM also says ah go on then....I’ll go for a BBQ Tuesday as well  

[Methuselah]

And there's still no breakdown in warmth, even by Day 16: