Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Uncertainty]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The wide range of eps clusters options at day 10 doesn’t just disappear at day 11!

Plenty of rainwater yet to flow under the bridge before we get some week 2 clarity 

 

Obviously they don’t  Blue but given the MO are also signposting a return to a *possible return to settled weather in that timeframe it’s still interesting that the clusters are at least hinting at that scenario. FWIW I looked through all the day 12 EPS members and there’s definitely a slight bias to HP but still a plethora of options as you’d expect and many more than suggested by the cluster algorithm.

[Howie]

Another good run on the 18z. Insane heat over North Africa, if we ever get a direct southerly we'll get the blow torch treatment 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Uncertainy said:

 

I must admit given the mid June doom and gloom on here and on Twitter I was surprised  to find that all the EPS clusters have some semblance of U.K. high pressure in the extended? And no ugly Greenland heights to speak of?

Not exactly trough domination on the 8-14 dayer either 

At op level, you can see the support for the above at day 10 via the ECM and GFS, despite very different routes getting there

Perhaps there’s a chance we could end up getting away with a reasonable early/mid June even if AAM does fall away as long as those mid Atlantic heights can stay away. As @Singularity has delineated elsewhere, you can still have U.K high pressure in June with low AAM, it’s just not the most likely outcome. Also thing you n eed to go some atmospherically to avoid the June monsoon singularity. However, Seen as we completely missed the settled May tradition then maybe there’s a chance we’ll miss the wet June one too!

Seeing as neither a settled May or a wet June are a tradition... it's all to play for in my book. In fact down here, June has almost always been drier and sunnier than May - less emphasis on southerly tracking lows that blight May and not quite into Atlantic onslaught territory that July can sometimes bring e.g. 2009.

It's interesting how if we had a June 2020 after this May, we'd probably consider it quite decent. Last June also had pretty low AAM from memory..? (I am not saying I wish for another June 2020 btw).

[Guest]

Wow - what a GFS this morning. It delivers 25c in the south for the first 11days of June and it’s by no means an outlier in its ensembles. 
 

Compared to last night UKMO and GEM delay their overly aggressive approach with the troughing through next week but only by a day or so, still it’s a tiny step towards the GFS. 

[Frosty.]

Very, very...(did I mention very)! ...very impressive Gfs 0z operational...pretty much perfick compared to the unsettled and unseasonably cool garbage we’ve had in the last 3 or 4 weeks....just Bank already!!! ....and don’t forget..the Gfs underestimates maxima! 

 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

 

I must admit given the mid June doom and gloom on here and on Twitter I was surprised  to find that all the EPS clusters have some semblance of U.K. high pressure in the extended? And no ugly Greenland heights to speak of?

Not exactly trough domination on the 8-14 dayer either 

At op level, you can see the support for the above at day 10 via the ECM and GFS, despite very different routes getting there

Perhaps there’s a chance we could end up getting away with a reasonable early/mid June even if AAM does fall away as long as those mid Atlantic heights can stay away. As @Singularity has delineated elsewhere, you can still have U.K high pressure in June with low AAM, it’s just not the most likely outcome. Also thing you n eed to go some atmospherically to avoid the June monsoon singularity. However, Seen as we completely missed the settled May tradition then maybe there’s a chance we’ll miss the wet June one too!

Exactly, Theres no support for anything below average other than a transitory spell. (going off the noaa) Its looking above average to me, a slight high pressure anomaly, a quite light upper flow from just South of west. IMHO its looking very fair, drier than average and a tad warmer than average which at this time of the year is pretty good. Proper summer weather imho.

[Man With Beard]

Ukmo has improved slightly from last night, the west still skirting with Atlantic trouble by the end of the Bank Holiday, but a warm draw likely from the south. Could be looking at mid 20s here 

 

[PiscesStar]

9 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Jet Stream is Playing Hells Game with the models, If I Snuff it out a drier bank holiday but changing again next week...

What do you base yoir theory in please 

[mb018538]

ECM looks fairly reasonable this morning too. After a couple of days threatening a full on low pressure intrusion, models appear to be settling on a more typical UK summer pattern, with low pressure tracking more between Iceland/Faroe Islands, and high pressure nosing in and out of the UK:

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks fairly reasonable this morning too. After a couple of days threatening a full on low pressure intrusion, models appear to be settling on a more typical UK summer pattern, with low pressure tracking more between Iceland/Faroe Islands, and high pressure nosing in and out of the UK:

Ecm is a big improvement!!one thing to keep an eye on is more amplification around the scandi area which is why we get sort of a scandi high just to the east of us on gfs and ukmo!!as a result we get slightly higher temps because of the more southerly/southeasterly wind direction!!wana see a move towards the gfs and ukmo this evening from ecm in terms of that extra amplitude across the scandi area!!!not too much obviously otherwise we then have a risk of southerly tracking lows lol!!i take what im seeing for now!

[mountain shadow]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks fairly reasonable this morning too. After a couple of days threatening a full on low pressure intrusion, models appear to be settling on a more typical UK summer pattern, with low pressure tracking more between Iceland/Faroe Islands, and high pressure nosing in and out of the UK:

Indeed. 

It has backed off the Atlantic pushing through next week and moved the jet much further North. Maybe some frontal activity into the North West but generally and much improved picture, lets hope it continues.

[johnholmes]

Wednesday 26 May; and the 500 mb anomaly take on beyond day 6 from now

Ec shows a broad w’ly at;antic flow from the main trough ne America out to Scandinavia, a reasonable flow over uk, stronger than for a while

Noaa has a similar pattern, not as strong a flow as ec. Any ridging is now way north, nw of xx island into the other side of the pole. The 8-14 is pretty similar, a slight +ve area develops from eastern US across the Atlantic over the UK but is only very slight so far.

The nett result of this set of charts, and they are very similar to each other, and consistent with themselves over the past 48 hours is a mobile surface weather pattern establishing beyond day 6 from now. Thus the warm up and drying out that is going to occur after today is not a long lasting pattern. Although Thursday to Monday is a huge improvement on the past few weeks for most of us.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

 

[sheikhy]

You can see what i mean in regards to what i mentioned earlier about slightly more amplitude across scandi in the pic ive attached!the ecm mean looks more like gfs and ukmo and almost has a cut off high to the east of us at 144 hours....

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GEFS 00Z ensemble set, this morning: mean T850s levelling off at around 7C . . . good enough for me!

     

[Guest]

Also positively the solution offered up by GEM this morning with a deep trough over the UK wasn't really backed by its ensembles, the Ops run really goes off on one. We seem to be tentatively edging towards a longer settled this morning, certainly the south and east you are.  

 

[Atmogenic]

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Very, very...(did I mention very)! ...very impressive Gfs 0z operational...pretty much perfick compared to the unsettled and unseasonably cool garbage we’ve had in the last 3 or 4 weeks....just Bank already!!! ....and don’t forget..the Gfs underestimates maxima! 

 

can i hug those charts?

[jonboy]

10 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

can i hug those charts?

only if you follow goverment guidance and preferably wear a mask when you do!!!!

[Methuselah]

What a chart for Friday afternoon! Now, I'll have to shave my head. And slap some sunblock onto my bonce!

     

[minus10]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a chart for Friday afternoon! Now, I'll have to shave my head. And slap some sunblock onto my bonce!

     

Steady.......

Here comes the sun....little darling...its alright...

About bl#%# time......

[Methuselah]

Am I seeing (or imagining) 30C T850s down over North Africa? If it really is that hot, down there, a couple of plumes might see us record 100F, for the third year in succession!

     

Be that as it may, we do seem to have reached a tipping-point regarding summer maxes?

[Frosty.]

Hats off   to those who, from a long way out (recent weeks in fact!) ...in the deep, dark and murky depths of FI...time and again saw signs of a pattern change in late May / early June and chased it enthusiastically!!!.. and is now knocking on the door..who is going to do the decent thing now and let all that fine weather in...hmmm?...ok I will! open’s the door   ...the ECM 0z ensemble mean shows a marked change to a more typical pattern which is good news for southern parts of the u k in particular on the cusp of the meteorological summer!   

 Am I havin a laff?  

 

 

[Djdazzle]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I seeing (or imagining) 30C T850s down over North Africa? If it really is that hot, down there, a couple of plumes might see us record 100F, for the third year in succession!

     

Be that as it may, we do seem to have reached a tipping-point regarding summer maxes?

I read somewhere (maybe on here) that transient, very hot plumes could become more common in the years ahead.

[Methuselah]

Do I detect an inchoate Spanish plume?       

Not this time, no:                                             

But, anyway: Always look on the bright side of life:    

Edited May 26, 2021 by Ed Stone

[summer blizzard]

Euro this morning is something of an upgrade from yesterday. While the mean high does retrogress back towards the Azores the Atlantic is sufficiently weak that it no longer full breaks through in the ten day timeframe.

GFS stays with its much more aggressive outcome and likewise with the GEM's aggressively bearish outcome so up in the air still but temperature aside the odds are that the Atlantic has been held back for England and Wales at least.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

06z is a very good run for some proper warmth and then some cracking storms! I hope this becomes a solid trend over the next few days. 

At the very least, we should be owed a flaming June for what we’ve had to endorse over the last couple of months. A repeat of June 1996 wouldn’t go amiss!