Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Djdazzle]

Looks like we are going to have two huge outliers (GFS and ECM) but at opposite ends.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Of course the ecm would crash us back to reality, goodness

It's always been the reality.

There is nothing in the background signals to suggest we are looking at a genuine heat pump scenario any time soon. The expectation has always been a settling down somewhat with a general bias towards HP being a mean feature centered just to our W. The finer details will play out around this.

[mb018538]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's always been the reality.

There is nothing in the background signals to suggest we are looking at a genuine heat pump scenario any time soon. The expectation has always been a settling down somewhat with a general bias towards HP being a mean feature centered just to our W. The finer details will play out around this.

Yep - and throw in splitting energy and remnants of a tropical storm into the mixer, and it’s no real surprise there is zero consistency or consensus among the main output models. Could be one of those that doesn’t get agreement until 2-3 days out. Clearly 5-6 days at the moment is a real struggle.

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That doesn't look like a long lasting settled scenario at all to me Mike...and at that time the SE would be cool and potentially wet?

Too true. But it's a darned sight warmer than the sheet we've had!?

Edited May 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Too true. But it's a darned sight warmer that the sheet would had!?

For sure 

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's always been the reality.

There is nothing in the background signals to suggest we are looking at a genuine heat pump scenario any time soon. The expectation has always been a settling down somewhat with a general bias towards HP being a mean feature centered just to our W. The finer details will play out around this.

The HP to the west is old news now- the anomalies have also picked on the trend for it to settle more over the UK.

We don't need a heat pump for it to become warm to very warm in early June- if the high moves over us for a few days it will warm up very quickly.

 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Looks like we are going to have two huge outliers (GFS and ECM) but at opposite ends.

That’s maybe because you are looking at T240, when there is much uncertainty before that, if we look at the models at T192, then GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM look like this:

All have potential but not guaranteed.  Settled, yes, real warmth not for sure at all.   

But what can we say, AAM looks forecast to be above average for a while:

So you would expect the models that push the high further into UK, Northern Europe to be the most likely to verify.  And you would also expect an increase in posts from those who hate summer taking the contrary position!

Remember where we were a week ago.  It isn’t dissimilar to winter.  The trend is your friend, and it is slowly but surely to first more settled weather, and thence to a warm up.  I’m sure the clusters will back this up later….

 

[eastangliawx]

EC wasn't to bad especially looking at the more reliable range. Alot of chopping and changing past 144h recently. 

Lets be honest, we have seen worse over the past few days...

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z temp. ensembles are nae bad . . . even the mean'd do me:

     

Things are on the up!

[Howie]

16 minutes ago, samwx said:

EC wasn't to bad especially looking at the more reliable range. Alot of chopping and changing past 144h recently. 

Lets be honest, we have seen worse over the past few days...

Yeah I went and had a look at the run and idk what people were panicking about

[Mapantz]

Time to move on..

[Mike Poole]

Just now, CreweCold said:

There's no winning...get called a cold lover by the majority in summer and a mild lover of doom in winter by the other majority.

The fact is I'm not really into hyperbole or hopecast and it's as simple as that. There's nothing to suggest proper heat in the foreseeable but I've more than stressed it will feel warmer than what we've had so far. 

That isn't enough for some though.

Aye, feel some sympathy with that on here, ones posts can never please all of the people, for sure.

But while I agree with you that it will feel warmer, it can’t not do once it becomes settled as the sun will see to that in late May, however, the prognosis for the longer term both from condiserations like AAM and from long range modelling suggests to me a more significant warm up down the line to me, and not very far in the future either (2nd week June latest).  I know you don't agree, but we will see….

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Aye, feel some sympathy with that on here, ones posts can never please all of the people, for sure.

But while I agree with you that it will feel warmer, it can’t not do once it becomes settled as the sun will see to that in late May, however, the prognosis for the longer term both from condiserations like AAM and from long range modelling suggests to me a more significant warm up down the line to me, and not very far in the future either (2nd week June latest).  I know you don't agree, but we will see….

I'm in agreement in as much that IF we're to see a proper warm spell it will come early doors in the summer. 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Aye, feel some sympathy with that on here, ones posts can never please all of the people, for sure.

But while I agree with you that it will feel warmer, it can’t not do once it becomes settled as the sun will see to that in late May, however, the prognosis for the longer term both from condiserations like AAM and from long range modelling suggests to me a more significant warm up down the line to me, and not very far in the future either (2nd week June latest).  I know you don't agree, but we will see….

Rising AAM doesn’t always correspond to warmth or even settled weather though sadly. Makes it more likely at this time of year that high pressure would be somewhere in NW Europe, but it can still end up in the wrong place for the UK. If it was that simple then forecasting would be a piece of cake!

[mb018538]

 

As expected - the ECM idea of dropping that trough straight down the east of the UK at day 8/9 doesn’t sit well at all within the ensembles. The warm up into the bank holiday weekend still looking a good bet.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Rising AAM doesn’t always correspond to warmth or even settled weather though sadly. Makes it more likely at this time of year that high pressure would be somewhere in NW Europe, but it can still end up in the wrong place for the UK. If it was that simple then forecasting would be a piece of cake!

No of course not, it is one piece in a complex jigsaw!   But it is in winter too, high pressure can more easily set up in the wrong place in winter than in summer, though.  

I’m not sure we learn much from the ECM mean and spread T240:

Apart from that the very SW will be settled.  And the rest of us will be less wet.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No of course not, it is one piece in a complex jigsaw!   But it is in winter too, high pressure can more easily set up in the wrong place in winter than in summer, though.  

I’m not sure we learn much from the ECM mean and spread T240:

Apart from that the very SW will be settled.  And the rest of us will be less wet.

Aye Mike, a jigsaw with an ever-growing number of pieces?

[ANYWEATHER]

Encouraging signs for the Bank Holiday ,can't wait for much needed warmth and dry.  But, the usual Caveats apply to that this far out . 

[Iceman2606]

ECM, GEM, GFS & UKMO showing signs of improvement as we head late into next week as high pressure finally moves in. This would settle things down and bring a recovery in the temps although there would still be a risk of some rain in places.

[ANYWEATHER]

51 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Who is playing down warmth? I seen about ten posts bigging up a GFS heat chart that had a 0% chance of verifying. (I gave my opinion and posted charts to back up my thoughts)
All I can see is some balanced opinions with backup - if new members are reading this thread they would think a heatwave is on the way next weekend! Here is the reality on current output.

18C for you next Saturday, 16C for @Ed Stone 18C for @mb018538 - risk of extensive cloud cover at times, sunny spells and maybe a light shower! We had guys saying the Spring top temperature was under threat on that day! Absolute nonsense - high of 19/20C maximum for the UK. (Maybe a degree higher in the usual Heathrow/Norholt)

@CreweCold has given an honest/balanced view in his posts which reflects current model runs.

Cmon lads/ladies…I know we are desperate for warmth but let’s add a touch of realism to some of the stuff posted in here! 

 

Good Post, there is nothing in the models showing heatwaves or anything really settled ,hints but that's all..!!!

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean certainly perks up following a very unsettled start!...I hope the Azores High will become very friendly with the u k during the next 3 months or so!  

[mb018538]

Morning all,

Let's have a look at the 00z charts...

UKMO day 5/6 shows surface pressure high, but the nuisance trough from the east swings in. Best spots could be Scotland/Ireland here!


GEM is similar at day 6, but goes off the rails at day 9:



GFS also similar at day 6, but ends up half decent:



 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by mb018538

[mb018538]

ECM isn't too great either:

A blink and you'll miss it affair before the high just collapses away.

[eastangliawx]

Good ecm in the more reliable range (96-144h)

Alot more variation past there, for example here is 192h on yesterday's ec vs todays, this is a good thing as it means its likely going to change again later

Gfs + Ukmo good this morning aswell

[eastangliawx]

4 minutes ago, samwx said:

Good ecm in the more reliable range (96-144h)

Alot more variation past there, for example here is 192h on yesterday's ec vs todays, this is a good thing as it means its likely going to change again later

Gfs + Ukmo good this morning aswell

Overall outlook remains the same. A rise in heights Wednesday/Thursday leading to an improvement in our weather over the weekend with higher temps than we have currently, less rain and more sun. What happens after that is anyones guess at the moment