Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs local to UK just above average actually, some slightly cooler than average to our SW:

Neither very marked.  If we get the high pressure and heat from the sun, these would not in my opinion put any damper on temperatures for long at all and would quickly trend above average.

Is that an Atlantic tripole wanting to set up there? Warm cold warm

[Britneyfan]

28 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The GFS really is all over the shop at the moment- big changes with every run.

Thursday looks rather messy on the latest run:

In stark contrast to the UKMO at the same time- looks like a very decent day.

This is good tbh, such massive changes generally means a pattern change is occurring so all these wild swings I actually believe is a good thing 

[Britneyfan]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t agree with that at all. Quite a few Septembers in recent years have had far better weather than In august. To all intents and purposes it’s still a summer month barring the darker evenings!

Exactly, september can be a warmer month than any spring month! 

[Britneyfan]

Just now, Britneyfan said:

Exactly, september can be a warmer month than any spring month! 

For example my max mean temp last September was 21.6° 

[Frosty.]

Oh my, I’ve seen worse means in the mid / longer term..oh my.. ..anyway, maybe one of these members will be our lucky number?..why not!..we’ve had no luck at all this may have we?...hmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!  ...hot topic too..what a bonus!   

Edited May 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Once again Gfs bringing warm air in from the north east?

Well,  for this run anyway...

It has to be better than today. Working outside not so much fun when it is 10 degrees, wet with almost a gale blowing..and yes...it is 21st May.. 

Edited May 21, 2021 by minus10

[Optimus Prime]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs local to UK just above average actually, some slightly cooler than average to our SW:

Neither very marked.  If we get the high pressure and heat from the sun, these would not in my opinion put any damper on temperatures for long at all and would quickly trend above average.

The sea track distance between the continent and the UK land mass isn't anywhere near wide enough for it to be modified very much anyway. It really is a non issue if winds are directly from the south as that will eliminate clouds forming as a result of convection. 

Also, sea temperatures respond reasonably quickly to reduced turbulence and heating. 

[Mike Poole]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is that an Atlantic tripole wanting to set up there? Warm cold warm

Yes, I’m taking it you’re thinking about a precursor pattern to winter?

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is that an Atlantic tripole wanting to set up there? Warm cold warm

I think this coming winter will be a memorable one

[ChannelThunder]

That's a plume-tastic end to this evening's Euro!

[Scorcher]

That really is a very good ECM- great to see the possibility of some warmer air being draw up from the south. At long last.

[thestixx]

1 hour ago, Britneyfan said:

This is good tbh, such massive changes generally means a pattern change is occurring so all these wild swings I actually believe is a good thing 

Totally with you on this. Change is good. Let's hope the dice roll favourably for summer warmth

[Frosty.]

On 20/05/2021 at 20:08, Jon Snow said:

looking at the bigger picture (NH)...I would keep an eye on that very warm air to the south, it does start moving our way..of course, it’s T+240 plus hours range but still worth discussing?   

 

Here’s what I posted about last evenings ECM 12z op..tonight’s run almost follows through with that potential....wow I’m good..(joking)...of course!!!

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

ECM a very good run no doubt - but is very knife edge. Looks like a lot of things could go either way and leave us warmer and more settled and cooler and less settled. Messy.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I’m taking it you’re thinking about a precursor pattern to winter?

Correct 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i will say more, lol 1969, 1975, 1983, 1996, 2018, off the top of my head all had cold springs but decent/good summers

There was a change in fortune late April 2018, May 2018 was glorious!

[mb018538]

The 00z is very messy. All these little troughs etc floating around is making it almost impossible to work out what we’re going to end up with in a week or so!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Of the 00Z runs, the ECMWF continues to show a build of heights and High Pressure over us from next weekend onwards (168+ hours):

Ideally, the High could still do being a bit further East (room for that to happen). Is still a welcome change. North-Western and Western areas would likely see the best of the sunniest spells in general.

Do hope the ECMWF is on to something, though, because, weather-wise, am getting bored of this November

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS temp. ensembles are looking better; +5C T850s'll do me:

     

[mb018538]

 

Slowly slowly catchy monkey. The warm up back to something more akin to average is now in sight.

[Britneyfan]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Slowly slowly catchy monkey. The warm up back to something more akin to average is now in sight.

Finally average is good 

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Stick with the Anomalies ..you know it makes sense!  

Edited it for you, lol...

Talking of which.... they still suggest pressure on the high side, so after a messy battle, high should win out, although nothing overly strong....yet...
 

Edited May 22, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Uncle_Barty]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Of the 00Z runs, the ECMWF continues to show a build of heights and High Pressure over us from next weekend onwards (168+ hours):

Ideally, the High could still do being a bit further East (room for that to happen). Is still a welcome change. North-Western and Western areas would likely see the best of the sunniest spells in general.

Do hope the ECMWF is on to something, though, because, weather-wise, am getting bored of this November

last November: Mean max 12.9. mean min 8.1 Mean 10.5 Rain: 58mm

This May to date: mean max 13.9, ,ean min 7.7, mean 10.6. Rain: 64mm

Not too dissimilar with one "freak" day of 18c this week helping the mean max.

 

At least there looks to be an upward trend in the models.. perhaps the background signals hinted at by Tamara a few days ago are starting to have an effect.

[Alexis]

15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs local to UK just above average actually, some slightly cooler than average to our SW:

Neither very marked.  If we get the high pressure and heat from the sun, these would not in my opinion put any damper on temperatures for long at all and would quickly trend above average.

The scale makes those maps absolutely useless. With no average, +0.1 is orange -0.1 is blue, so swathes of virtually average ocean look warm or cold.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

The scale makes those maps absolutely useless. With no average, +0.1 is orange -0.1 is blue, so swathes of virtually average ocean look warm or cold.

Although +/- 0.1C is of no consequence to would-be skinny dippers, the enormous amount of energy water contains (relative to the same volume of air) might/does have considerable influence on weather patterns?

Those maps only tell you what they tell you!