Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term ECM 12z op / mean...for those of us waiting for a taste of summer, or at least something drier?...I’ve seen worse (the last few weeks for example)!!! ....not long to go now, there’s an increasingly bright light at the end of the tunnel  

[minus10]

As others have stated it does look more promising with high pressure becoming the main part of the story by the end of next week. No heatwave but feeling very pleasant out there in the strong sun. Will need suncream (memo to myself)

Is it me or does this chart in deep FI on the Gfs 12z look odd. It appears that there is not much happening over a large part of the Atlantic with very slack pressure. How often do you see this type of set up?. I suppose it is more likely in Spring owing to dissolution of the PV and sluggish Atlantic...

[Guest]

GFS is painful viewing, high pressure regresses too far west and the south ends up under an upper trough through the bank holiday weekend (surely not two record cold Bank holidays in the same month?) Last nights 18z run was pretty similar and despite the  fact that after such a poor month we’d be dreadfully unlucky to end up with such an outcome it does align with what the long term ECM forecast was showing. 
 

Not a pretty picture, surface temps struggling to reach double figures in place during the bank holiday weekend. 
 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean / perturbations, there’s plenty of evidence to support a marked change to summer weather with high pressure and increasing warmth in the not too distant future...not complete support, there’s still some crud here and there..but on balance it’s looking good, perhaps even very good!...but then..I’m being positive!!!!  

 

 

[mb018538]

As @Alderc has alluded to, the 00z GFS run isn't good at all...high pressure in exactly the wrong place for anything decent for the UK. Cold blob gets advected down and cut off over the UK. A N/NE flow prevails and temperatures are even worse than they are now, stuck down in low double figures. This courtesy of North Sea filth being swept across a good swathe of the UK.


GEM is marginally better, but still has the cold air stuck in play until day 10. Let's see what the ECM has to say.

[Frosty.]

Could it be a GREAT start to the meteorological summer?...that’s my hope!.. ...I have no doubt that high pressure will build in from the W / SW next week to some degree? but looking at the GEFS 0z mean, it may well be a case of waxing and waning high pressure influence with the best chance of fine weather longer term into early June being further south?...time will tell!...there’s still a hangover of cool unsettled dross in the ensembles from this abysmal late spring but there’s also some very good signs too!  

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Could it be a GREAT start to the meteorological summer?...that’s my hope!.. ...I have no doubt that high pressure will build in from the W / SW next week to some degree? but looking at the GEFS 0z mean, it may well be a case of waxing and waning high pressure influence with the best chance of fine weather longer term into early June being further south?...time will tell!...there’s still a hangover of cool unsettled dross in the ensembles from this abysmal late spring but there’s also some very good signs too!  

I think the problem with the mean is that the return to average 850s keeps getting kicked down the road, on this mornings run it doesn’t happen until the 28/29th, four days ago it was the 25th, now look at the charts for early next week. That said the Ops run is again for the up-tenth time a colder outlier post the 26th.

[Guest]

@mb018538 Not sure the final two charts are going to rescue ECM from this mess at 192hrs 

 

[Scorcher]

The situation is getting comical now. Surely there is nothing stopping this from being the worst spring ever now? Even the poor Mays of 2012 and 1996 had late warm spells.

May 2010 was chilly too but I recall some warm days.

I think the feeling of torture is being heightened by the fact that we have never needed a warm, sunny spell more than we do right now with the lockdowns we've had to endure.

The models keep dangling the carrot and then after giving us a tiny bit of hope, it's snatched away again.

We are long overdue a sustained period of strong high pressure with warm temps.

I can't recall another spring that was completely devoid of a warm spell between the beginning of April and the end of May.

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

@mb018538 Not sure the final two charts are going to rescue ECM from this mess at 192hrs 

 

You'd be right. What a mess of a run. By day 9 and 10 there is still an upper trough dumped over the UK with its attendant cold pool and muck. Problem looks be the strong heat dome being pushed up into Eastern Europe at the same time which is preventing the trough exiting from our neck of the woods. Typical UK - get high pressure in and it's still rubbish.

Not a good morning of model watching!
 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You'd be right. What a mess of a run. By day 9 and 10 there is still an upper trough dumped over the UK with its attendant cold pool and muck. Problem looks be the strong heat dome being pushed up into Eastern Europe at the same time which is preventing the trough exiting from our neck of the woods. Typical UK - get high pressure in and it's still rubbish.

Not a good morning of model watching!
 

It’s really not a good position if such a pool heat gets locked in so early to the east. Without getting ahead of ourselves it could really tricky for that pattern to shift.

[Methuselah]

Aye, guys, May is looking awful:          

Should things stay like this (not even Day 16's lookin that great!) my wait to enjoy a steak-shaped lump of vulcanised rubber, in the Wetherspoons' beer-garden, will go on . . . and on. 

                                                              

[mb018538]

End of May and large parts of the north are stuck with daytime maximum temps at 6-8c on this mornings ECM day 10. 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

End of May and large parts of the north are stuck with daytime maximum temps at 6-8c on this mornings ECM day 10. 

Seems very little to stop this May becoming the worst in at least a generation. 

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems very little to stop this May becoming the worst in at least a generation. 

The only crumb of comfort I can find is that both the GFS and ECM sit a fair bit below the mean once the high eventually moves in. 

[Guest]

Well unsurprisingly the GFS Ops run was at the toilet end of the ensemble pack but the mean really isn’t very inspiring and it appears it’ll probably be well into June before we start 20c regularly. 
 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The only crumb of comfort I can find is that both the GFS and ECM sit a fair bit below the mean once the high eventually moves in. 

Agreed but it’s concerning me that both the GFS & ECM Ops runs are continually churning out bottom dwelling output, they are off course the highest resolution members of theirs suites meaning their continued ‘outlier’ status can’t really be ignored IMO. 

[Purga]

The cool theme continues with GFS showing sub 128hPa uppers over NE Scotland around day 7

ECM even shows 3 consecutive days of the same on days 8-10.

Below average May CET looking ever more likely

The risk of frost returning for all areas one could surmise.

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

The cool theme continues with GFS showing sub 128hPa uppers over NE Scotland around day 7

ECM even shows 3 consecutive days of the same on days 8-10.

Below average May CET looking ever more likely

The risk of frost returning for all areas one could surmise.

 

That sounds like purgatory.. ....however, when we scratch below the surface / dig a bit deeper ... there are some very good signs in the ensembles too..they haven’t all imploded overnight!..summer is coming..whether it’s summery or not!  

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

It’s really not a good position if such a pool heat gets locked in so early to the east. Without getting ahead of ourselves it could really tricky for that pattern to shift.

maybe we can expect a nice June, a not-so-nice rest of the summer and a cracking November and December! :)

 

[Frosty.]

I think it’s safe to say there is some improvement in the ECM 0z ensemble mean over time?!...the question is just how BIG or small the improvement will ultimately be?...and on the 19th May it’s far too early to know what that answer is!!! ...anyway, I remain positive, whatever transpires!  

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I think it’s safe to say there is some improvement in the ECM 0z ensemble mean over time?!...the question is just how BIG or small the improvement will ultimately be?...and on the 19th May it’s far too early to know what that answer is!!! ...anyway, I remain positive, whatever transpires!  

 

The mean is absolutely better than the current dross on face value, to be honest though after yesterday step forward 100% feels like at least two steps this morning. 

[Britneyfan]

Models will always chop and change each run, the more they do that the more uncertainty there is, and they are also at the bottom end of the ensembles, who knows this evenings run could show something completely different, don’t take each model run too seriously 

[Methuselah]

Day 10 looks fair-to-middling, to me . . . but, crucially, and to be fair to fair-to-middling, fair-to-middling is an improvement on recent fayre:

     

Though, should the HP be clean? Bingo!

Edited May 19, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Timmytour]

42 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Models will always chop and change each run, the more they do that the more uncertainty there is, and they are also at the bottom end of the ensembles, who knows this evenings run could show something completely different, don’t take each model run too seriously 

So true....I mean look at a couple of weeks ago when people were moaning about what the models were showing then and look what we've ended up with!!!!!

Tbh I rarely see anyone on here outside of winter take one model run as gospel.... any sense of pessimism on here I would put down to what they are seeing the models put up consistently and pretty much in accordance with each other.  Yes of course it can all change and there's not a soul on here who I would think doesn't recognise that, but they are commenting on what the models are showing more than what they want them to show.