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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS day 10
image.thumb.png.c29ebe2aa93795e12bc51ea0d662f97c.png

GEM day 10
image.thumb.png.8ec4b832c011527e0c65dd7b22ad8a7b.png

Very frustrating to see this amount of difference in the model runs. I literally have no idea what we could be faced with in just over a weeks time.
 

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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS day 10
image.thumb.png.c29ebe2aa93795e12bc51ea0d662f97c.png

GEM day 10
image.thumb.png.8ec4b832c011527e0c65dd7b22ad8a7b.png

Very frustrating to see this amount of difference in the model runs. I literally have no idea what we could be faced with in just over a weeks time.
 

Yep, no wonder when look at what GEM suddenly does with the Jet Stream......that’s never going to be god news for the UK. 
 

FB022498-D9AA-4A70-8170-B561FCF34494.thumb.png.278ae44b53fbb9350d16753ddacc5215.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS day 10
image.thumb.png.c29ebe2aa93795e12bc51ea0d662f97c.png

GEM day 10
image.thumb.png.8ec4b832c011527e0c65dd7b22ad8a7b.png

Very frustrating to see this amount of difference in the model runs. I literally have no idea what we could be faced with in just over a weeks time.
 

More of the same 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

More of the same 

Just in time for the Whit Bank Holiday weekend, often delivers better fortunes than the August one, bank please! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just in time for the Whit Bank Holiday weekend, often delivers better fortunes than the August one, bank please! 

north yes but not south, here Aug one better

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

north yes but not south, here Aug one better

Yes your right, for the NW I should have added. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM nowhere near as good as last nights run.

Looks like a lot will hinge on how this developing low below the tip of Greenland behaves and swings through:

image.thumb.png.306bfbc3ece4de260b5a52446979fe51.pngimage.thumb.png.fdd46a42f6799872e813bd4555410b28.pngimage.thumb.png.84778140dcae48a42b5cf3581249fea6.png

All looking quite similar at 144 hours, but all have very different outcomes by day 9/10.

Edited by mb018538
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I think perilous best describes this morning model output, certainly looks like high pressure will attempt to edge in around day 8-10 however we need less influence from low off to the east. Could easily end up with a big high pressure cell sat of the west of the UK leaving an upper cold in situ or just to our east with lots of cloud of depressed temps. ECM & GFS in that camp @ +T240. More runs needed.   

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

It sums it up i think when you see that the only way we can get any warmer air is via returning tc air round the trough to the east on the Gfs0z latter stage fi. ....from the ne

image.thumb.png.45eac1a81db3573c3a3ce3ce73a7b3f3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

It sums it up i think when you see that the only way we can get any warmer air is via returning tc air round the trough to the east on the Gfs0z latter stage fi. ....from the ne

image.thumb.png.45eac1a81db3573c3a3ce3ce73a7b3f3.png

Interestingly that’s how May 2004 warmed up after the really autumnal start. A plume from Scandinavia haha. Sparked some decent thunderstorms too!

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Deary Deary me.

1092534256_h500slp(1).thumb.png.b07f844a098abdcf0601e9c81590a996.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Monday 17 may and a look at if the 500 mb anomaly charts are any help

Two days on, are the 2 models showing some continuity or even similarity with one another?

Ec looks fairly similar to what it showed on Saturday=trough-ridge-trough in the area 60W-10E, so similarity and continuity with itself. The trough into Europe is slightly more marked than it showed Saturday.

Noaa has , last evening, dropped the very slight ridge it showed on 2-3 days ago and continued with 48 hours ago. The very slight +ve anomaly has been weakened even further sw of the UK and w of Iberia. This leaves Noaa showing a generally slack w’ly flow from the bottom of the main trough (Canada/Greenland into Europe. The 8-14 contours are similar in direction and even weaker. The slight +ve anomaly shown on the 6-10 is changed to an isolated very slight +ve circle of heights just sw of Ireland.

Overall the guidance from Noaa is less conclusive than from Ec. Until both show a similar pattern, and for 2-3 days, my view is that there is little help for the overall upper pattern from the 500 mb anomaly charts. Noaa has changed over the 72 hour period, never a good sign for solid guidance. Ec has not, so it is possible that its suggested pattern may end up close to what we will see in the 6-12 day period at 500 mb. If so then summer is on hold with a cool and possibly rather unsettled outlook, note I say IF the EC version is correct.

The only suggestion I can make for any of us wanting warmth is-Perhaps Noaa, with its slight indications of height rises (very slight and not developed) MAY be hinting at some kind of height rises eventually developing west of Iberia towards the sw approaches. Not much science in that I have to say but about a 15% probability it could occur! On that very shaky bit of pseudo meteorology I’ll shut up!

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

This would feel pretty raw and wintry for the East Coast

image.thumb.png.cd01ef4863c59a7d9870542f3627438e.png

More like mid winter than 4 days away from the start of summer!

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

I am holding out hope for high Pressure to develop in about 10 days. Based on ECM and the last few runs. Obviously not accurate at this range and no heatwave expected, but at least a change. 

Looking at Sundays ECM Run for Wednesday of next week first and then the latest midnight run, hopefully this works out. I think it will.

image.thumb.png.6308bda1e53ee36fd1317900009daaad.pngimage.thumb.png.6f09d2fe358111e0ab18e6eebfae75d5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

The outlook is so grim i'm looking far out for any high.

image.thumb.png.9cdd70b5bb1c22022c6c20b825e529d7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

 

We will get there eventually!

 

With regards to warmer weather I agree, nothing scientific with my thought more of a gut feeling that it could be hurricane / tropical storm that moves in the direction of the UK which might change the pattern to a warmer one, I might end up being completely wrong and I don't use the seasonal model charts (we know how wrong they got last winter) but I'm interested to see if they are near with the high pressure predictions, I'm not overly convinced as that positioning would likely have the majority of hurricane activity being fish storms. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
34 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The outlook is so grim i'm looking far out for any high.

image.thumb.png.9cdd70b5bb1c22022c6c20b825e529d7.png

OK but the problem -as such - is the signal for high pressure to build west / northwest moreso than to the SE.

Courtesy of TWO

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

Show GEFS ensemble clusters. 2m temperatures, 850hPa temperatures, MSLP, Precipitation, Snow

Would lead to a continuation of the cool theme.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I know all models struggle slightly in this convective showery output to nail exactly where the showers will or won’t be etc, but which one do people find to be best? EURO4?

Trying to work out how wet I’ll get playing golf Wednesday afternoon but am getting wildly different forecasts from different models etc. 

Likely that I’m going to catch a shower, but this isn’t my main area of expertise. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I know all models struggle slightly in this convective showery output to nail exactly where the showers will or won’t be etc, but which one do people find to be best? EURO4?

Trying to work out how wet I’ll get playing golf Wednesday afternoon but am getting wildly different forecasts from different models etc. 

Likely that I’m going to catch a shower, but this isn’t my main area of expertise. 

I prefer HARMONIE (daughter of HIRLAM) for this, but it only goes out to T48, so no charts for Wednesday afternoon yet, here’s tomorrow T32 on the 6z:

646A2991-D081-4169-87BC-EC55A60E8DBC.thumb.png.46ea875041a5649e76be7754346cc17b.png 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Cracking 12z run - warm and sunny by day 10:

image.thumb.png.aa26f559c3282d03ee1e8d7eab4998ff.png
 

Let’s see what the rest say. Chop and change the order of the day!

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Cracking 12z run - warm and sunny by day 10:

image.thumb.png.aa26f559c3282d03ee1e8d7eab4998ff.png
 

Let’s see what the rest say. Chop and change the order of the day!

It's been suggesting warm and sunny by day 10 for the last 3 or 4 weeks. Hasn't happened.

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Lets see where its sit in the ensembles and it compares to ECM, but certainly an improvement in the medium term. Still not sure how GFS finishes with us stuck under another upper trough buts way out and will hopefully not be there next time around. 

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