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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

You can see the Cyclone clearly forming I'm not sure of this boundaries exactly but this couild be classed as a major Cyclone if it strengthens more. 1

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Meanwhile back in Britian and we have a Spanish/Atlantic Plume, a relatively small and weak one but its a start for the Storm starved folks in Central Kent and Westwards for a chance. 

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2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Totally agree. Interesting to note that for the Gefs 0z pressure ensemble pack all are at or above 1000mb from 20th or so chiming in with the trend for a slight rise in 850 temps in the latter third of the run. Signs of hope ....small steps etc.....

Anything like that happens May will almost certainly turn out to be one of the worst on record. 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

There definitely seems to be a trend now at day 8 onward for HP.  Whether it becomes established (GFS), or just flirts with us with an Atlantic trough influence still ongoing (ECM, GEM) would seem to be the big question.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

If this were to happen I'd hope those'd be the same system and storms coulsld be the French importing us some more fish, we might see some fish crossover onto our side, then we can catch them. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021051400_240.image.thumb.png.b11c476a52510cbc1bd9c35e516c9432.pngimage.thumb.png.de0068afc852981ec17d045c7ce1a9e8.png

The most promising ECM clusters we've had for a while. Far from cur and dried, but nice to see some dark reds in some of the options near or over the UK as we head towards the end of May.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.5e9212248664e10d42d663d26642c928.pngimage.thumb.png.5c8475f557027097c407b051545e2eff.png

6z GFS just can't quite build the ridge in - low pressure out to our NE is trapped in an omega blocking position with a ridge either side and nowhere to go. Hopefully this eastern European ridge isn't as strong, the low can exit and the Azores high can topple in more like the 00z run.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There’s a saying...Ne’er clast a clout till May is out! ..I think the Gfs 6z operational proves that! ...ps.. I hope it’s wrong, I much preferred the 0z! ☀️  

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Doesn't really help when the Ops run is flipping  850temps by 10-15C each run. A poor GFS 06z, the less said the better!

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
46 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There’s a saying...Ne’er clast a clout till May is out! ..I think the Gfs 6z operational proves that! ...ps.. I hope it’s wrong, I much preferred the 0z! ☀️  

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That's ridiculous

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
4 hours ago, Snow Shoes said:

I think there is a risk that those predictions could now be largely off-set by the effects of the increasingly weakening Gulf Stream (with potential in the future for temperatures in UK to steadily decline )

skynews-uk-winter-weather-braemar_526900
NEWS.SKY.COM

Scientists say there has been a dramatic slowdown in the flow of ocean currents that play a vital part in the world's climate.

 

..

I think I'd be more inclined to believe this had the winters of the last thirty years not been considerably warmer than the winters of the previous thirty years...The average monthly CET for the months of December, January and February is over 0.85C greater for winters beginning 1991 to 2000 than it was for 1960 to 1990.  The corresponding increase for the months of June, July and August by comparison is only 0.7C.    

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GFS ensembles seems to picking out a bigger and bigger negative arbitrage to the mean 850pha temps from the 20-26th of May. Its pretty much a -5C delta now. Was clearly less pronounced on the  00Z run with 3 or 4 really warm runs dragging up the mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

All I know is, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks better at day 10 than last nights 12z with less trough & more ridge into the u k by then?..as for words like arbitrage and delta..I’m a bit thick so those words mean nothing too me, certainly not impressed by such words anyway!!!!!    

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Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2021051400_240.image.thumb.png.b11c476a52510cbc1bd9c35e516c9432.pngimage.thumb.png.de0068afc852981ec17d045c7ce1a9e8.png

The most promising ECM clusters we've had for a while. Far from cur and dried, but nice to see some dark reds in some of the options near or over the UK as we head towards the end of May.

Noticed that. It would be a big fail if some sort of ridge doesn't get to us by the end of the month. However, we have definitely seen many fails to get rid of a pattern like the one we're in, so I'll reserve judgement.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

bigger and bigger negative arbitrage 

 

Pardon my ignorance but what on earth do you mean please?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Gordon Bennett!    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png  

Very skillful tennis players, the Arbitrage Brothers!?

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Gfs 12z is horribly cold at times from later next week, max temps widely 5-8c below for many days. Would be dreadfully unlucky for that to come off

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I spy with my little eye -9 850s on this morning ECM at the end of May

3F217EF8-3564-48F5-B2B2-7938D57A627B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs 12z is horribly cold at times from later next week, max temps widely 5-8c below for many days. Would be dreadfully unlucky for that to come off

I agree, Chris; it's pretty dire!     h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree, Chris; it's pretty dire!     h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

On the 24th the long term mean for 850's over Bournemouth is exactly +5c. Just two of the ensembles are warmer than this, 9 are up to 5C cooler, a further 19 the Ops run and the Control are all between 5 & 10C colder than the mean. More than half of the ensembles and the control run were all colder than Ops from the 24th onwards - utterly Grim. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

We’re starting to see some potential lumps in the road! High pressure trying hard to build in but can’t as low pressure to the E/NE has nowhere to go. Net result is yet more northerlies. No. Thank. You.

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