Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[milomolly123]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Not sure if anyone has looked through all of the GEM 00z members but this one in particular stood out to me

Bring on the first proper plume of the season. This has uppers over +15c and surface temps over 30c. Add that nice trough feature on the 500mb chart into the mix and BOOM !!!! Thunderstorms galore here maybe.

i really want this to happen the storms would be amazing in that set up count me in 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, milomolly123 said:

i really want this to happen the storms would be amazing in that set up count me in 

That'll be the one with 850's getting to 19/20C, I'd happily take that at the surface currently.

 

[milomolly123]

it is a very strange may last time i remember was in 1956 i was looking at the C.E.T its crazy how ive looked at the years and 2018/1976/2003 all have a hot may but 2021 is a strange one 

[minus10]

Gfs06z still very unsettled and cool . Our old friend/enemy the Azores HP is just not able to set up shop where it should be to give us some decent weather. It tries at day 10 to come in however is toppled by cyclonic developments on its northern side.

This does allow warm air to be close to the south but no cigar as the trough to the north wins out.

Need a substantial change in the pattern to enable the Azores HP to be our friend again...

[Eagle Eye]

Been monitoring that system just south of us for a while, was expected as a direct hit just yesterday. 

India and Pakistan bracing here for a massive storm possibly a Cyclone. 

[Frosty.]

Same story..or at least variations on the same theme as yesterday and recent previous days from the GEFS...the 6z mean shows the trough domination eventually ebbing away towards the end of May..which MAY mean a decent early June IF the Azores high can build our way?...my fingers are crossed...so..I sincerely hope the trough loses its mojo before the meteorological summer commences!    

Edited May 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

No comment on the GFS 12z? Best ‘summer’ run of the season so far, turning warm and then very warm and settled. Will be a whopping outlier but it could be the start of something. The change is starting to appear at day 10 and not at day 16.....so fingers crossed!

[Britneyfan]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No comment on the GFS 12z? Best ‘summer’ run of the season so far, turning warm and then very warm and settled. Will be a whopping outlier but it could be the start of something. The change is starting to appear at day 10 and not at day 16.....so fingers crossed!

Well the background signals don’t fully support it yet so until they do there probably won’t be many comments on it lol 

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No comment on the GFS 12z? Best ‘summer’ run of the season so far, turning warm and then very warm and settled. Will be a whopping outlier but it could be the start of something. The change is starting to appear at day 10 and not at day 16.....so fingers crossed!

Yes quite a step change with this run. The Azores Hp holding on this time..

 

As a result leading to a much better outcome...

While being an outlier, in FI, not supported etc it is still nice to see it being shown....

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Well the background signals don’t fully support it yet so until they do there probably won’t be many comments on it lol 

They are supportive of a pattern change towards the last week of the month. As @Tamara always advocates, signals lead models and not the other way around. It’s not unusual to see a quick pattern change in models when you think it isn’t coming. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

No comment on the GFS 12z? Best ‘summer’ run of the season so far, turning warm and then very warm and settled. Will be a whopping outlier but it could be the start of something. The change is starting to appear at day 10 and not at day 16.....so fingers crossed!

Well its not the biggest outlier!! Now P15 is a outlier lol, and would likely break the all time May record. Even on the low res 2m temp profile that run had a closed 30C isotherm around London and 21C 850s - oh we can but dream!!

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

From little acorns grow..or not as the case may be!! .... ...there’s further good signs from the longer term GEFS 12z mean with the trough eventually ebbing away allowing opportunity to knock for the Azores high?...there are some peachy perturbations but for sure, some rotten apples too!..so no guarantees of a pattern change but on balance, I think there’s growing support, enough support to say a change for the better (more summery) is becoming more realistic??!!  

Edited May 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

ECM is starting to get there at day 10 with the Azores high starting to nose in. Let’s see if we can lock these gains in tomorrow, or if they are a red herring. Fingers crossed!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well its not the biggest outlier!! Now P15 is a outlier lol, and would likely break the all time May record. Even on the low res 2m temp profile that run had a closed 30C isotherm around London and 21C 850s - oh we can but dream!!

 

 

 

There have been a lot of runs with the odd monster member. Hmmm. Often the case just before a bit of a change. I'll check the ECM ensembles...

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

There have been a lot of runs with the odd monster member. Hmmm. Often the case just before a bit of a change. I'll check the ECM ensembles...

No real joy on the ECM ensembles, the majority are close to 0C uppers right out to D15, a few runs get into the warm category but they're very much alone, none close to the GEFS dizzy heights

[mb018538]

GFS 00z

Hello Mr Azores high, nice to see you! This chart is day 9 - it builds in and sticks around until the end of the run at day 15. 

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 00z

Hello Mr Azores high, nice to see you! This chart is day 9 - it builds in and sticks around until the end of the run at day 15. 

Very encouraging- the GFS has been keen to build in the Azores High for a few runs now. I do get the sense a major pattern change is in the offing.

[Methuselah]

Yes please!             

 

[Guest]

Defo yes please to the GFS 00z Ops run, shame the ensemble pack says ‘carry on suffering’ but still, encouraging solutions  like that appearing as early as next weekend. 

Edit - just to add the Euro at day ten also has high pressure incoming from the south west. 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Alderc

[bluearmy]

Slowly slowly ......for the time being, it looks like it won’t stay as chilly as it has done as we head through week 2. that’s looking like the duff end of the summer envelope so plenty of room for a much better outcome than that .... I’d be thinking about outdoor plans for BH weekend before things get too booked up ......

[Penrith Snow]

Any improvement in the models is well out in La La Land so its no change for the foreseeable, the Azores high is ringing horizontal into Iberia leaving the gate open to an endless Atlantic onslaught.

Tom Shaf said last night no change for a week or two with a strong jet to the south, we can only hope for a improvement in time for bank holiday by which time this May will be in the 'one of the worst ever' box.

I watched a Panorama programme from May 1990 last night about Global Warming, it was at the start of the GW scare and several scientists interviewed said that in 30 years time the UK would have a Mediterranean climate and we will need to adapt.

Still waiting guys  

Andy

[mb018538]

ECM is getting there very slowly by day 10, key difference being that it doesn't kick the trough away to our NE like the GFS does, so the build of pressure doesn't get there.

Should add that the GFS solution in building a massive strong ridge was extreme this morning anyway. The mean heads up above 1020mb by day 10 though, which would tend to indicate a shift away from this wretched low pressure dominated weather could be on its way in the last week of May. Patience required!

[minus10]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is getting there very slowly by day 10, key difference being that it doesn't kick the trough away to our NE like the GFS does, so the build of pressure doesn't get there.

Should add that the GFS solution in building a massive strong ridge was extreme this morning anyway. The mean heads up above 1020mb by day 10 though, which would tend to indicate a shift away from this wretched low pressure dominated weather could be on its way in the last week of May. Patience required!

Totally agree. Interesting to note that for the Gefs 0z pressure ensemble pack all are at or above 1000mb from 20th or so chiming in with the trend for a slight rise in 850 temps in the latter third of the run. Signs of hope ....small steps etc.....

Edited May 14, 2021 by minus10

[Snow Shoes]

55 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

watched a Panorama programme from May 1990 last night about Global Warming, it was at the start of the GW scare and several scientists interviewed said that in 30 years time the UK would have a Mediterranean climate and we will need to adapt

I think there is a risk that those predictions could now be largely off-set by the effects of the increasingly weakening Gulf Stream (with potential in the future for temperatures in UK to steadily decline )

Weakest Gulf Stream in 1,000 years could bring more 'extreme' winters to UK and Europe, says study

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Scientists say there has been a dramatic slowdown in the flow of ocean currents that play a vital part in the world's climate.

 

..

[Daniel*]

I think GFS / GEFS is a bit too forward EPS builds a ridge close to our N and W it’s consistent on this, while this may mean drier weather it could still be cool notice around 24th a further dip cool northerlies on east flank of ridge.