Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[minus10]

Although not particularly an inspiring run again from Gfs 12z it is at least showing average temps (sometimes above sometimes a bit below ) with no material northerly outbreak and a more general warm up towards the end.

In addition , relating to the diminishing returns that JS refers to if you look at the northern hemisphere picture over the run you can clearly see this..

0z 192z288z

384z 

The blue thicknesses are diminishing over the run as the whole of the northern hemisphere slowly becomes less cold. Even without heatwave synoptics things will be improving overall although there is bound to be some hiccups on the way. Still only May, after all  

Edited May 9, 2021 by minus10

[Britneyfan]

48 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Although not particularly an inspiring run again from Gfs 12z it is at least showing average temps (sometimes above sometimes a bit below ) with no material northerly outbreak and a more general warm up towards the end.

In addition , relating to the diminishing returns that JS refers to if you look at the northern hemisphere picture over the run you can clearly see this..

0z 192z288z

384z 

The blue thicknesses are diminishing over the run as the whole of the northern hemisphere slowly becomes less cold. Even without heatwave synoptics things will be improving overall although there is bound to be some hiccups on the way. Still only May, after all  

Excellent post average temps and mild nights intact my local night temp holds around 10/11 degrees with a couple of cooler 9 or 8, but that is way way above what we have had when night temps was pretty much at freezing or below! GFS might not be Inspiring but those temps are average and no more cold north airmass over us either, overall could be worse, could obviously be better, but I take what it’s offering 

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 12Z temperature-ensembles are nae exactly a thing of beauty; the op has started bottom-feeding again:

     

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean / perturbations..let’s just say I’ve seen worse!..there’s encouraging signs of something more summery as we count down to ...erm..summer..unless you are unlucky enough to live in Bournemouth!      ! ⛈ 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

Im glad the ECM output stops at T240 as I’m pretty sure the next chart would be a straight northerly. 
 

Poor output again across the board and while we’re only a third of a way through the month the CET is currently 2.7c below average. With the current output it’ll take a miracle to get even end up 1.5c below average by the end of the mont (a few milder nights might help I guess) 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Alderc

[viking_smb]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

I found this little beauty from the GEFS 12z..I love summer thunderstorms / heat / humidity! ..fingers crossed  

 

dont depress me 

[Britneyfan]

50 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean / perturbations..let’s just say I’ve seen worse!..there’s encouraging signs of something more summery as we count down to ...erm..summer..unless you are unlucky enough to live in Bournemouth!      ! ⛈ 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Im glad the ECM output stops at T240 as I’m pretty sure the next chart would be a straight northerly. 
 

Poor output again across the board and while we’re only a third of a way through the month the CET is currently 2.7c below average. With the current output it’ll take a miracle to get even end up 1.5c below average by the end of the mont (a few milder nights might help I guess) 

Looking at tonight's ECM, heights to the NW look to continue being influential deep into this month.

Heights in that position are hard to achieve usually, but once they get entrenched, they are equally hard to get rid of!

[damianslaw]

It's a trough dominated outlook, average temperatures by day at least short term, but a propensity for cooler conditions later in the week as we pull in more of a northerly flow. Nights should be frost free. Not much sunshine about, lots of cloud, and heavy showery downpours. On balance a rather poor outlook.

Edited May 9, 2021 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

Aye, definitely a trough-dominated outlook; but, at least by T+384, those pesky tPV remnants look about to finally give up the ghost . . . but, as to whatever pattern replaces all that resultant northern blocking is as yet unknown. Unknown by me, anyway:

     

It could be that, what others refer to as 'memory', I call inertia?

Anyway, there's no sign of any frost, on this mornings GEFS 00Z ensembles:

     

Edited May 10, 2021 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

Day 1 - No Northern blocking and unsettled


Day 9 - Northern blocking returns, stays unsettled



Not really the sort of pattern emerging here if you'd like something warmer and more settled. Not as cold as it has been of late, temperatures around average or below in any unsettled periods.

[mb018538]

Nothing promising in the long range ECM 00z clusters this morning either:



Unsettled for the next 10 days at least.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Not very inspiring for May and largely unsettled. However we have seen the back of that bitter Arctic air and it will not be cold at least ...i

[Eagle Eye]

Possible Plume slowly pushing up through the South West towards the end of the week does look like Atlantic pushed though. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[summer blizzard]

Models this morning making a little more of a low to the west near day 10 but no real end to the unsettled pattern in the next ten days with what is a fairly zonal and damp pattern.

[Tamara]

On 09/05/2021 at 09:10, mb018538 said:

 

This AAM forecast doesn’t really tie in with a big trough in NW Europe. I’d expect to see something more settled appearing soon.

 

On 08/05/2021 at 22:01, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

 

There’s a lot of them, but picking the bones out of that, seems a tendency to retrogress the trough back west of the UK.  The later 240+ chart:

 

…looks inconclusive so we wait a while more for the first hint of summer proper on the models…

Both these posts compliment each other in terms of the longer range. The detail behind them of which was discussed in a previous post of mine. However changes for the better are outside of the   current 10 day period.

However, as far as NW Europe is concerned and specifically the UK from this threads viewpoint, anticipation of the trough re-setting further west in the Atlantic and an erratic evolution to rise in pressure from the south and east is still in the extended period. Still hampered at present by the  long term legacy of the easterly wind zonal wind anomalies at higher latitudes but this should continue to very gradually abate.

The medium term retrogression of the pattern, as momentum slides back c/o increased trade winds across the Pacific (shaded blue on Hovmollers)  c/o convective suppression (shaded orange in the velocity potential forecast) has replaced the recent active passage of a convectively couple kelvin wave (CCKW) - and is the precursor to  upstream amplification backing the trough west before rising momentum then starts to build more of a downstream amplified ridge response in the very extended period. 

 

The stubborn long term enduring -AO feedbacks are the fly in the ointment, but continued tropical convective activity should start to strengthen sub tropical ridging as seasonal wavelength changes act to weaken the polar cell as summer rapidly approaches.

I am not one at any time to read too much into individual ensemble sets, let alone operational output, ,but purely as an example of the type of evolution that matches the diagnostic thoughts discussed above - the latest GFS 06z operational happens to play out this script. Its not important at all at this time how it sits in ensemble data because too much of NWP will be blindsided by the current suppression of convection across the Pacific allied to the -AO feedbacks. It is though the type of evolution to keep in mind for the very extended period.

 Timing of such a change is rather low confidence at the moment but the end period of May and into June remains consistent with cautious thinking

[Allseasons-Si]

Well the gfs 06z offers something nice on the table as we go into the latter half of May...

will it be an outlier?

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the gfs 06z offers something nice on the table as we go into the latter half of May...

will it be an outlier?

Id say thats a yes... 

Really the ensembles are exceptionally tightly packed indicating high confidence in the poor conditions continuing. 

[Jordan S]

Does look like that shift in wettest conditions being more for central and southern areas midweek will likely happen, with a low moving slowly northwards on wednesday night bringing heavy rain into southern parts, then slowly moving north during the day on thursday, locally it could be thundery..  around 25mm probably accumulating for some but possibly as much as 40-60mm in a few places.

Gfs..

Rainfall accumulation..

Icon..

low pressure close by during the weekend so a continuation of sunshine and showers some heavy and possibly thundery but a few places may stay dry with sunshine.

A longer spell of rain likely moving east into the west and south of England and Wales on saturday and then possibly another one on sunday.

Next week showery with some sunshine though longer spells of rain will move across some areas occasionally. Stronger winds and coastal gales may return more widely again during the middle or latter part of next week perhaps more for England and Wales.

Temperatures likely similar to this week, winds probably mostly northwesterly and westerly.

Middle of next week..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Id say thats a yes... 

Really the ensembles are exceptionally tightly packed indicating high confidence in the poor conditions continuing. 

Mate you really could do with your own separate thread for moaning...Umpteen times a day you slang the output like there is know way out of it! 

Things are very showery at present with average temps outside the showers,we have lost the frosts so that's a start! Longer term ensembles do hint at at a change in pattern,and more especially away from the far NW...long way off,but not a chance that these current conditions will hold indefinitely!

Anyway Alderc the Green light for Travel Destinations is back on,so theres always the option of jetting away to sunnier climes!.

Enjoy it if you can.

 

 

 

[Britneyfan]

27 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mate you really could do with your own separate thread for moaning...Umpteen times a day you slang the output like there is know way out of it! 

Things are very showery at present with average temps outside the showers,we have lost the frosts so that's a start! Longer term ensembles do hint at at a change in pattern,and more especially away from the far NW...long way off,but not a chance that these current conditions will hold indefinitely!

Anyway Alderc the Green light for Travel Destinations is back on,so theres always the option of jetting away to sunnier climes!.

Enjoy it if you can.

 

 

 

Could not agree more, it’s just constant moaning, average temps and showers continue, it’s actually quite nice outside now we lost the artic air, it feels warmer anyway 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mate you really could do with your own separate thread for moaning...Umpteen times a day you slang the output like there is know way out of it! 

Things are very showery at present with average temps outside the showers,we have lost the frosts so that's a start! Longer term ensembles do hint at at a change in pattern,and more especially away from the far NW...long way off,but not a chance that these current conditions will hold indefinitely!

Anyway Alderc the Green light for Travel Destinations is back on,so theres always the option of jetting away to sunnier climes!.

Enjoy it if you can.

 

 

 

It’s not slanging it all it’s saying exactly what it is, cool and unsettled and affirming the stonking outlier. Everyone seems to be happy picking out outliers two weeks away but saying it’s cool and unsettled in the reliable......nope that’s not on. Seems to me a bias towards posting fanciful conditions weeks out combined with the general cold bias of the thread making out rotten conditions are completely normal. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the gfs 06z offers something nice on the table as we go into the latter half of May...

will it be an outlier?

It's a trend-setter!

[ChannelThunder]

Much more interesting model-watching now than the first two-thirds of Spring! I'm not even sure what to take away from the runs on offer at the moment as it's such a mixed-bag and always changing! A feeling of 'anything could happen' for the rest of the month.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Lance M

[Methuselah]

Aris-end of the GFS 12Z. Details are irrelevant, of course, but I'd like nowt more than loads of sunshine and 25C temps. But, it's the demise of the tPV remnants that I'm really liking: