Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

Well, the next 16 days look substantially better for gardeners & growers, than the tripe we've endured this last period:

     

Of most importance -- no frost!

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, the next 16 days look substantially better for gardeners & growers, than the tripe we've endured this last period:

     

Of most importance -- no frost!

Spot on Ed, no frosts. Life without frosts....gardeners paradise it will feel more like summer with those greens and yellow 850s

Jon S: keep doing what you are doing mate. Your posts brighten our day with your positivity despite what life throws at you. I have been a member since 2010 but only started posting about 6 months ago. So glad I did...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good evening hoodlums like others have stated,we finally lose the nighttime chill thus Weekend and next week,but temps could still be on the disappointing side through next week by day!! Showers and sunny spells being the most likely outcome,and perhaps more general rain at times around Midweek! I still feel it will be the final 3rd before a generally more settled spell emerges and this most likely away from the NW. I have a feeling this Summer could deliver late promise for a change!! Anyone up for a Barbecue August! Strooth it's long overdue!

Some much more settled evolutions from the GFS 6Z ens l,hopefully the 12s carry on that trend.

Know need to drink to post on this thread @Jon SnowKarl...your a character mate full stop! 

Keep fighting Kid...

Have a great Weekend Netweather and stay well..bring me sunshine

 

[mb018538]

12z GFS didn’t get the memo about breaking northern blocking down. Just look at the state of that.

[Frosty.]

Ok guys, I’m going to say something.. ...the models show something, we then make a bold prediction and then the models pull the rug from under us..sound familiar? ...anyway, this is what I think!....the first half of May has been well covered, it’s going to turn milder / warmer for most of the week ahead with temperatures much closer to the seasonal average with a general mix of sunshine and showers / longer spells of rain?.. and no overnight frosts..however, there may be further cool incursions beyond that?..depending on the position / orientation of high pressure but the general feeling I get is that the second half / last third of May will be less unsettled than the first half...bring me sunshine! ...thanks for the kind comments chaps..and roll on summer, let’s get rid of the green snot and get some plumes or at least some decent high pressure dammit!!!..

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

The GFS 12z mean starting to trend persistently below average @850pha again. Unsettled and northerly blocking still around. Not really what is was hoping to see.
 

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS 12z mean / perturbations don’t look too bad to me?...I’ve seen worse..like the current / this weekends crap for example!  

[Methuselah]

38 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The longer term GEFS 12z mean / perturbations don’t look too bad to me?...I’ve seen worse..like the current / this weekends crap for example!  

Indeed, Karl -- the trend is our friend!

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational is essentially unsettled with a general mix of sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery and a risk of longer spells of rain with temperatures close to average, then there’s a brief ridge of high pressure in around a weeks time before it turns more unsettled again with the sunshine and showers mix...roll on summer..not long to wait now.. tick tock! ? ? ⛈  

[Methuselah]

Latest GEFS temperature ensembles don't look quite as 'dire' as some folks are suggesting -- at least, not to my eyes:

     

Aye, the T850s do drop below the dreaded 0C, very late in the run -- but, so what, it's only May!?

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Latest GEFS temperature ensembles don't look quite as 'dire' as some folks are suggesting -- at least, not to my eyes:

     

Aye, the T850s do drop below the dreaded 0C, very late in the run -- but, so what, it's only May!?

Low to mid teens! Break out the party poppers.....don’t think anyone’s said dire but barely average after weeks of below average isn’t great now is it. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Low to mid teens! Break out the party poppers.....don’t think anyone’s said dire but barely average after weeks of below average isn’t great now is it. 

On the contrary, Chris: average will do me just fine; it's precisely what I'm adjusted to!

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Low to mid teens! Break out the party poppers.....don’t think anyone’s said dire but barely average after weeks of below average isn’t great now is it. 

I’m getting out the bunting for Sunday looking at the Gfs 12z op..and I don’t even live in the sarf east!...  ...that’s how mental I am..and don’t forget, the Gfs underestimates maxima by a few degrees so it could be very warm!   

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Jon Snow

[ChannelThunder]

57 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all!

Lovely to see the old 20/21C showing in a reliable timeframe! (Shame it’s not IMBY! )

Sunday 14:00 - forecast cloud cover (best just looking out the window on the day) and windy…slight negatives.

 

Later in the afternoon/evening it could go bang! The return of the French imports/Kent clipper! 
Risk is certainly there…even well inland and along the South coast…thundery showers extends to Portsmouth - numerous models/outlooks showing similar on current output. 

18:00

 

21:00

 

00:00

 

03:00

 

We all know how this works…will all end up in the North Sea or vanish as it crosses the Channel! 

I would be keeping a very close eye on all the forecasts Sunday afternoon/evening/overnight into Monday…if I was a storm enthusiast/chaser based in S/SE/E England! (Even further away depending on how keen you are! )
Dover could be a great spot to take in the action!

Good luck with all that - hope it delivers for all you ladies and gents in the risk areas. (If it all vanishes on future model runs or is a massive bust…blame the models! )

All the best!

Banking that UKV right now! I wouldn't necessarily have to even chase very far if that came off. Might have to charge up the camera batteries for the first time this season.

Edit: thanks for the good luck wishes @Mr Frost. I'm moving back to the Isle of Wight in a few weeks as we've bought our first house, and after the pants year for storms last year, my soul needs one more storm chase on this side of the water! I will go down to southeast Kent on Sunday if that's what it takes! Talk about storm-starved!

Edited May 7, 2021 by Lance M

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Half a warm day in Essex and a thunderstorm. Brilliant after six weeks of sub zero temperatures. Back to usual next week. Mild temps and rain. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240 time frame:

Not very enticing to be honest.  I really will be interested to see the GloSea5 seasonal update (aka summer forecast) next week, because I expect it to still be positive, but….the cooler solutions have dominated all of late spring, so will be interested to see how the transition to warm happens, and when!

[Britneyfan]

Those banging on about the gfs and it’s ensemble yet again, we have no frosts from it and temps across the south east mid to high teens possible, lots of showers amongst sunny spells, it will feel warm in any sunny spells, if your looking for days over 20° Then yeah bummer, but temps in my neck of the woods hovering around 15 to 17, around average for the time of year, 

oh and the gfs undercooks temps anyway, people need to back away from the constant gfs updates and start looking at a bigger picture 

[Don]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

12z GFS didn’t get the memo about breaking northern blocking down. Just look at the state of that.

Don't worry, it will get around to reading it come late November! 

[Daniel*]

Are people missing out models are showing return of cool northeasterly winds later in week? However, you dress it up it isn’t good for approaching mid May warmer yes but still uninspiring.
 

[Methuselah]

Of course NE winds might make a (albeit brief) return, later this week, though neither the GF00Z or the GEFS ensembles point it. Yet!

     

And hopefully, even if it does turn 'colder' again, there's still the added bonus of things remaining relatively frost-free?

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Are people missing out models are showing return of cool northeasterly winds later in week? However, you dress it up it isn’t good for approaching mid May warmer yes but still uninspiring.
 

It looks insignificant to me- the northeasterly winds look like a blink and you'll miss it affair so no reason for people to remark about it that much. ECM actually shows more of a westerly regime after Friday.

The GFS looks decent to me after next weekend- certainly a lot better than what we've had temperature-wise.

Great to see that both the GFS and ECM keep the green snot away from most of the UK for virtually their whole runs.

[minus10]

As others have stated we are getting back on track this morning, for the train from the west will be running again according to Ecm 0z ...

Key issue is an absence of northerly blues showing for the next 15 days of so and while no heatwave it has to be better than what we have been having. Indeed although in extreme FI it is nice to see this chart from Gfs0Z op which  would be ideal and has been absent on the model runs for quite some time....

10 mm of rain here this morning which is good news for the gardens 

[Methuselah]

Good potential for inland thunderstorms, if I'm reading the 06Z correctly? Here by the sea? Probably an early build-up of Cbs fading as the sea-breeze kicks in. Great for working outside!

     

[Methuselah]

Oh no, it's a write-off!           

 

[Frosty.]

Now this from the 6z looks a bit more like summer..than winter!