Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Jordan S]

The low pressure system later tonight through the morning will be further south to what I previously thought was likely, but rain moving into the southwest of England in a few hours but the majority of it remaining over the English channel and into northern France, this rain also probably moves along other southern coastal counties further east though during the morning, some cloud around to the north of this with an area of showery rain looking to develop during the morning over north Wales into the Midlands, which could fall as sleet or snow on high ground at first, turning to rain before moving southeast during the early afternoon. 

Looking at the low pressure system for Saturday again, windy for many and much of the rain heavy for a few hours.. widely 10-20mm accumulating including the far southeast of England, particularly wet for south Wales, still likely to be snow on some high ground of Scotland for a time though possibly the highest ground of Wales and northern England too briefly.

The rain continues on sunday morning for some western parts especially Wales where altogether from saturday 50-80mm accumulating locally.

Ahead of this wet weather some heavy showers with the chance of thunder possibly developing later on sunday for central and more especially eastern parts..  showers likely for northern Ireland and Scotland some heavy with one or two thunderstorms possible.

Temperatures rising on saturday but becoming much warmer for southern and particularly eastern England on sunday, they will probably reach between 17-20c in sunny spells, possibly locally upto 22c.

Another look at early next week it will turn cooler again in the east but not as cold as this week. heavy showers around on monday but probably in particular for Scotland and more especially northern Ireland again where there is more likely to be a few thunderstorms bringing hail, strong winds and locally torrential rain. Heavy showers developing quite widely though for other places, except the southeast where there will probably be few.

This weather looking likely to continue on tuesday with further heavy showers around but the wettest weather looks to be more for the northwest instead of the south with low pressure from this weekend still around..

perhaps the wettest weather shifting to central and southern areas by wednesday with showers and the possibility of longer spells of rain most likely here. Showers will probably be around for much of the uk aswell though but sunshine at times.

The outlook for later next week seems similar more emphasis on lows moving right over the uk, particularly western, central and southern parts of England keeping it unsettled but probably remaining less cold than this week.

Edited May 6, 2021 by jordan smith

[KTtom]

Looking like we are swapping the cold crisp sunny skies of April for less cold wind and rain for the forseeable, gfs pretty consistant with this tune right through its run...very different from last year! 

Come on Boris I need a holiday!

[Frosty.]

On the plus side, the GEFS 0z mean still looks better beyond mid month and there’s a few juicy perturbations, however, essentially it’s a very mixed outlook and especially in the short / medium term it’s unsettled..but..at least the Gfs 0z op shows we will be losing the polar / arctic chill very soon with days and nights becoming milder, much closer to average and we are probably looking at a mixture of warm sunny spells and showers, some heavy and thundery plus occasional longer periods of rain...good growing weather?...hey at least there’s a positive spin there..come on guys I’m trying!..very trying  ?  ️ ? ⛈  

 

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Today's 00Z temperature ensembles: T850s to stay above 0C from Saturday; 2m temperatures clearly looking too low, a suspicion backed-up by just about every other forecast I can find . . . 15-16C?:

     

[johnholmes]

A 500mb anomaly chart view this morning

Thursday 6 May

Ec=trough over uk towards s france with very slight ridge showingarounc 50n (hardly worth a mention), from the overall atlantic flow from beneath main trough s Greenland into s’ern Europe, very little flow for uk.

Noaa=looks pretty similar to the ec chart, even to the suggestion of slight ridging well w of uk; some slight +ve heights azores region 120DM; little signal for this extending towards uk area; 10-14 chart is very similar to the 6-10 and shows more troughing than the one 2 days ago.

Result=no signal yet to suggest we may be getting a change; current weather pattern looks set to continue with isolated days warmer and more settled.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

On the plus side, the GEFS 0z mean still looks better beyond mid month and there’s a few juicy perturbations, however, essentially it’s a very mixed outlook and especially in the short / medium term it’s unsettled..but..at least the Gfs 0z op shows we will be losing the polar / arctic chill very soon with days and nights becoming milder, much closer to average and we are probably looking at a mixture of warm sunny spells and showers, some heavy and thundery plus occasional longer periods of rain...good growing weather?...hey at least there’s a positive spin there..come on guys I’m trying!..very trying  ?  ️ ? ⛈  

 

 

Not trying at all mate. I love your positivity. This is a chart we havent seen for a while...

winds from the south/ swest !

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z keep the 0C isotherm away to the west, until at least Tuesday . . . As far as I'm concerned it can stay there for ever!

     

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Result=no signal yet to suggest we may be getting a change; current weather pattern looks set to continue with isolated days warmer and more settled.

 

 

 

Thats odd, i dont get that impression from the NOAA charts at all. To me they suggest that  troughing will dominate the period 6-14 days, but we lose most of the arctic sourced air previous runs correctly identified for us over a week ago.

My interpretation is that we are to expect pretty average conditions, showers or longer spells of rain mixed with sunnier brighter spells but crucially we lose the overnight frost risk and daytime maxs should be closer to the seasonal norm... maybe above at times/in places. Itll also not be as windy.

Oh well, we will see..

[Don]

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS 06Z keep the 0C isotherm away to the west, until at least Tuesday . . . As far as I'm concerned it can stay there for ever!

     

What?  Even in winter?!  How dare you! 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

What?  Even in winter?!  How dare you! 

A thousand apologies, Don . . . But, when one gets to my age, next winter is too far ahead!

[mb018538]

ECM clusters possibly holding a bit more promise this morning longer term:

Day 10                                                      Day 12                                                      Day 14


There's a very decent option 1 in there. A bit too much variance to have any confidence in anything, but if a good outcome is showing at least it's a possibility!

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by mb018538

[johnholmes]

32 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats odd, i dont get that impression from the NOAA charts at all. To me they suggest that  troughing will dominate the period 6-14 days, but we lose most of the arctic sourced air previous runs correctly identified for us over a week ago.

My interpretation is that we are to expect pretty average conditions, showers or longer spells of rain mixed with sunnier brighter spells but crucially we lose the overnight frost risk and daytime maxs should be closer to the seasonal norm... maybe above at times/in places. Itll also not be as windy.

Oh well, we will see..

Well it may be me not very good at explaining mushy, I don't disagree much with most of your post.

[Britneyfan]

Looks like London and south east finally loose the really cold nights by the weekend, in fact temps could stay at 12 degrees all night Saturday into Sunday! That will feel noticeable 

[Tamara]

17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I looked at the EC seasonal about 15 minutes back. Striking HP anomaly just to our west...which would suggest mundane summer fayre...pretty bland with the chance of some cooler incursions if troughing becomes stronger to our E and the HP ridges N at times (I suspect Icelandic/Greenland ridging may feature at times)

For those in the UK this summer, I think that is a good enough signal, at that range, based on the increasingly likely potential evolution of tropical and extra tropical forcing driving the atmosphere and the equally increasing likelihood of stratospheric downwelling of the troposphere losing its stubborn grip on the hemispheric pattern. Its very much a mid latitude Azores ridging pattern and not a top down arctic heights ridging pattern - such as has dogged much of Europe for quite some time.

That makes a lot of sense in my view - with every indication of tropical convection remaining active and edging the rossby wavelength a little eastwards and keeping an amplified profile - BUT at the same time as Nina-esque forcing and residual stratospheric instability wane (and by dint of that the former also stops perpetuating the other).

If we see cloudiness and thunderstorm activity increase once again across the Western and central Pacific heading into the latter part of May and into early June, and as the ferrel cell gains its early seasonal supremacy, then look for sub tropical ridge extensions to increasingly drive the jet stream further north and west , displacing the trough somewhat accordingly. Angular momentum is poised quite nicely at present (NB: heading at present into the 'wane' part  of the tropical>extra tropical cycle which means AAM is falling back, temporarily, and retaining the trough solution across NW Europe into the medium term). However, the next upturn c/o renewed eastward propagating tropical convection, should see the extra tropical Global Wind Oscillation, a phase plot depiction of hemispheric wind-flow, re-orbit  towards a higher amplitude Phase 4 (the signal for mid latitude ridging in tandem with a more stable stratosphere than Spring to date)

Again taken at face value and subject to usual caveats as added, but according to plausibility as outlined above - an average. sometimes warm pattern looks indicated from that seasonal outlook for many N and NW parts of Europe with some good fine spells. It doesn't smack of plume generated heat and with relatively low humidity probable - but many would very happily settle for that I would think this summer as restrictions ease and it is quite some improvement on the awful Spring conditions many have been enduring.   

It does look a potentially hot set-up for those of us further south in Europe  on the southern flank of ridging with a lot of heat building in situ - and heatwave territory. Mediterranean heatwave territory takes on another level to UK/NW Europe standards and it is as well, should that scenario verify, that procedures are already in place, as per the the annual calendar, to make sure large clearance of tinder box undergrowth is undertaken ahead of the heat building to reduce fire risks.

Edited May 6, 2021 by Tamara

[minus10]

 

Good news for gardeners: Frost-free from this weekend - Plus some more rain

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Some good news for gardeners and farmers alike, it looks like most will see the back of the frosts that have been a feature of many nights since late March from this weekend. While it stays unsettled with further rain or...

Rejoice gardeners and growers. we are back in the game. No more damaging frosts, (hopefully) and warming up tad with much needed rain in between sunnier breaks......

ps Nice garden NF...is it yours? 

Edited May 6, 2021 by minus10

[minus10]

Ecm12z still showing flabby low/slack pressure next week with the northerly in the Atlantic and at least 'green' 850s over the UK which should allow temps to be nearer to average (or even above in any sunnier spells) and showers or longer outbreaks of potentially thundery rain.

Still that blob of HP to the north west seemingly re-establishing itself at the end of the run, however thankfully no northerly although the way it is evolving it could end up with one again. Still that is FI so bound to change..

Edited May 6, 2021 by minus10

[Don]

6 hours ago, Tamara said:

Again taken at face value and subject to usual caveats as added, but according to plausibility as outlined above - an average. sometimes warm pattern looks indicated from that seasonal outlook for many N and NW parts of Europe with some good fine spells. It doesn't smack of plume generated heat and with relatively low humidity probable - but many would very happily settle for that I would think this summer as restrictions ease and it is quite some improvement on the awful Spring conditions many have been enduring.   

 

That would definitely suit me, ideal in fact!

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, Don said:

That would definitely suit me, ideal in fact!

A 2018 repeat - lovely! Gin clear skies and low humidity day after day. We will have to see, but i think a repeat of last summers disappointment won't materialise. We were stuck under a La Nina base, which promotes long periods of -ve AAM, which in summer means troughing in NW Europe. That's not to say it'll be a scorcher, but not as unsettled as last year.

Back to there here and now - looks like staying unsettled right through next week as low pressure becomes stuck over the UK. Rain or showers for all areas, worst of the rain looks to be in the west.

[Scorcher]

I'm at the point where I'm not to bothered about it being unsettled next week- I'm just delighted that the polar air finally gets cut off after today.

Hopefully we don't see another frost now until November.

[Guest]

Unsettled and damp.....but less cold, GFS effectively has a flabby low spinning away either over the UK or near by pretty much for the next two weeks. Ensembles while not tightly grouped are all pretty much agreement of the generally unsettled theme with plenty of precip spikes.

Also I'm hopeful for down here at least down here that this morning will be the last frost until at least the middle of Autumn....

[Snowyowl9]

Highs are getting larger and weather patterns keep getting more unusual ever since the outstanding 2007 summer,probably started before that like 2004.

[Britneyfan]

Finally going to loose that nip and chilly air! Warmer air incoming even if it’s unsettled I think many people will be grateful to be able to take the winter coats off at last! Next week looks showery but in the sunny spells will feel warmer than it’s felt in the last week, temps actually look average about 15 to 17 across the south east 

[Frosty.]

Afternoon all,

I still say there are better signs of fine potential during the second half of May according to the GEFS 6z!..I think that much is pretty obvious considering how unsettled the first half looks?..hmmmm!.. ...anyway, there are absolutely no guarantees, there are still plenty of unsettled members longer term..BUT..on balance, since the mean means average.. ...I choose to believe the second half or at least the last third of May could be rather more respectable in terms of fine weather...but I should also mention, as others, including me have previously..that it will become milder from the next day onwards with temperatures much closer to average, by day and night..so frost risk reduces significantly..hey, it’s almost as if summer isn’t far away!..roll on summer!...of course I want plumes etc but as long as we can have a decent summer with plenty of warm sunshine..I will be happy!  

ps.. I’ve been drinking, in case you hadn’t noticed ..I will be honest with you, even though I’ve been a member since 2005 I feel nervous about posting anything on this forum when I’m stone cold sober!  

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Afternoon all,

I still say there are better signs of fine potential during the second half of May according to the GEFS 6z!..I think that much is pretty obvious considering how unsettled the first half looks?..hmmmm!.. ...anyway, there are absolutely no guarantees, there are still plenty of unsettled members longer term..BUT..on balance, since the mean means average.. ...I choose to believe the second half or at least the last third of May could be rather more respectable in terms of fine weather...but I should also mention, as others, including me have previously..that it will become milder from the next day onwards with temperatures much closer to average, by day and night..so frost risk reduces significantly..hey, it’s almost as if summer isn’t far away!..roll on summer!...of course I want plumes etc but as long as we can have a decent summer with plenty of warm sunshine..I will be happy!  

 

IMO, gin-clear blue skies are like lying snow: once you've seen seven in a row, it all gets rather boring . . . warm with thundery showers'll do me!

Edited May 7, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean shows signs of improvement ?..or is it just me..humor me?..I have a dying father and I’m autistic..!..

Edited May 7, 2021 by Jon Snow