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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

It'll be interesting to see what happens after mid month.

Yesterday's 12z GFS had AAM going through the roof. ECM a lot more sluggish in the recovery than forecast a few days ago, so a switch from low pressure dominated weather to something more settled could take a bit longer to arrive. One to keep tabs on. Depends on how active the MJO phase moves through the Pacific.

image.thumb.png.d940349bc2b25dc215046de9d1062895.pngaam1.thumb.jpg.be1862c56c63d89b210f72610045b1cb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

I wouldn’t worry mate - you live in London don’t you?

Sunday 12:00

E3F010C6-B2F1-4095-BDD1-BA57F42CF492.thumb.png.9e2fd7aa0c0f7e0736686c560e48bf58.png
 

Into the first half of next week London is still hitting 16/17C daily - it will feel warm! Only slight issues could be the risk of heavy showers and breezy at times.

@Alderc loves to be a bit over dramatic at times - always enjoy his posts though. :santa-emoji:

All the best!

OK this makes me feel a bit better lol

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean, there are signs of improvement compared to how unsettled the charts look today and again at the weekend?..by day 10 there’s a slacker looking pattern, pressure looks a little higher but there’s still trough influence, albeit weaker by then which probably means a mix of sunshine and heavy thundery showers with lighter winds although still gusty around heavy showers with temperatures closer to average?...beyond that point..I’m using guidance from the GEFS and on balance we could see something more respectable as we approach the start of the meteorological summer with more chance of high pressure / ridging and generally warmer.......just my opinion?. ☀️ ⛅️ ? ⛈  

 

 

78BEB032-25DD-46A2-BCB0-5876AB13146B.gif

47E69077-BB7E-402A-BCD4-F01E067B6582.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean, there are signs of improvement compared to how unsettled the charts look today and again at the weekend?..by day 10 there’s a slacker looking pattern, pressure looks a little higher but there’s still trough influence, albeit weaker by then which probably means a mix of sunshine and heavy thundery showers with lighter winds although still gusty around heavy showers with temperatures closer to average?...beyond that point..I’m using guidance from the GEFS and on balance we could see something more respectable as we approach the start of the meteorological summer with more chance of high pressure / ridging and generally warmer.......just my opinion?. ☀️ ⛅️ ? ⛈  

 

 

78BEB032-25DD-46A2-BCB0-5876AB13146B.gif

47E69077-BB7E-402A-BCD4-F01E067B6582.gif

as long as we get thunderstorms later on i will be happy

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I am far from excited personally. The upper warmth (due to models moving the low into Europe) is not likely to resultant in much more than additional cloud given the outlook is still pretty cyclonic. 

As the Euro suggests, the pattern is still entrenched even then. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I’m liking what I see from the extended GEFS 6z mean / perturbations...a growing chance of high pressure later this month and some really warm potential too?..the mean certainly warms up later!!...the late spring weather may kick and scream but SUMMER IS COMING! ☀️  

2637F47F-302B-454F-93D2-E8F2E41E2E13.thumb.png.f1b63292640ee1955f1c956f4ae39eb9.pngDB16D7EF-890B-4944-A840-AB495F4BA2E5.thumb.png.1bb6786c7519105e37942825256e1966.png7A8F1A56-5E96-49AA-8CF3-ECF6A73D6763.thumb.png.e5b4f78211827518336e1f541dce97dc.pngCAADA3D4-222D-483C-AA5E-F3B69CDE242F.thumb.png.700ba5cde701cfde7021d4155a5c7e90.png81218E3C-BB83-4884-AE2F-C880F4E222F1.thumb.png.c93a19465761a9d3004616473d660256.pngB1EA299D-7C8D-436F-B43B-A17E8E9DAD78.thumb.png.7185ca3c8f5c25b15833c43d75c9c0f6.png859D6DE5-4A98-4AFC-BE1A-4616A1F6CEFA.thumb.png.e8497ba5844fd3aea427a08d0548a4a1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I am far from excited personally. The upper warmth (due to models moving the low into Europe) is not likely to resultant in much more than additional cloud given the outlook is still pretty cyclonic. 

As the Euro suggests, the pattern is still entrenched even then. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

It's not the uppers that are giving cause for potential excitement, SB, it's the potential for some slow-moving thundery showers,  without any sleet or snow in them, that I'm liking:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

There’s not much we can be certain about longer term at the moment, but models are consistent on a pretty nasty low for the time of year on Monday, GFS overdoing it as usual, T120:

B62FD541-AAF4-450F-9012-B21E58655EC4.thumb.png.53410d430d08bc756e22720e3f89fbbf.pngB7022603-A403-4764-AECC-27877A504D43.thumb.gif.bac59f978d1179b9afc759d61cb1d237.gif52DE6FEF-2AED-4A30-88B5-E7135B079BAC.thumb.png.1299b72e845cabd63ebcd7402f20e04b.png

Beyond then GFS hints at a ridge (T192) but then retracts it:

BBF320F1-51DF-44B4-8989-7BE91F5694D2.thumb.png.4fcb6380a1dc07aa839a87dd5dd54546.png

There have been signs on the GEFS and ECM ensembles of something more settled and warm into mid to late May, hope they come into fruition, but for the moment the cool and rather unsettled outlook remains.  

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I am far from excited personally. The upper warmth (due to models moving the low into Europe) is not likely to resultant in much more than additional cloud given the outlook is still pretty cyclonic. 

As the Euro suggests, the pattern is still entrenched even then. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

Agree, the uppers warm slightly but ultimately most of next week is going to be pretty cold at the surface, pretty cloudy and windy at times. Thundery showers in that sort of airmass are hugely hit and miss so nothing to get excited about in all honesty. 
 

It’s a continuation of poor conditions, just a different sort of poor to the last month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Agree, the uppers warm slightly but ultimately most of next week is going to be pretty cold at the surface, pretty cloudy and windy at times. Thundery showers in that sort of airmass are hugely hit and miss so nothing to get excited about in all honesty. 
 

It’s a continuation of poor conditions, just a different sort of poor to the last month. 

Cold? Who are you kidding? I work outside and 15-16C is good enough for me... And anyway, you don't know what the skew-T will look, any more than I do!

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6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Cold? Who are you kidding? I work outside and 15-16C is good enough for me... And anyway, you don't know what the skew-T will look, any more than I do!

15-16c is chilly outside, working outside is completely different but majority of us aren’t working outside. Also looking at next next week after Sunday there’s only a smattering of 15-16c days in the east and south east. Might not even get one days of that here or in many other areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree with Ed (Pete)...just looked at the Gfs 12z operational and Sunday + most of next week looks mild with temps into the mid teens Celsius range with a mixture of warm sunny spells and showers, some heavy and thundery which is more in line with how late spring should be!!!!! ...Sunday could reach 21c in some spots..hardly cold innit!  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

15-16c is chilly outside, working outside is completely different but majority of us aren’t working outside. Also looking at next next week after Sunday there’s only a smattering of 15-16c days in the east and south east. Might not even get one days of that here or in many other areas.

I do recall your running commentary on the last two summers, Chris: cold, wet, miserable. Yet I don't remember them like that, at all . . . 100F for two years' running!?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T216 and you can see the problem on NH view:

14BA9CCF-0AE1-4036-94C8-F98189979548.thumb.png.ba66bc0abbf29171c950509b1fc12404.png

There is certainly no oomph in the Atlantic but those high latitude heights just won’t drain, this hangover from a very unusual winter carries on into late spring, I’m afraid.  

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46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I do recall your running commentary on the last two summers, Chris: cold, wet, miserable. Yet I don't remember them like that, at all . . . 100F for two years' running!?

Not fair , June apart from a few days and most of July was pretty poor, think most agree with that, the summers were decent generally but both had extended and really dull spells at times with offsetting spells of excellence.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's that time of year again, when everything is 'up in the air'. So, right on cue, the GFS operational goes back to trawling along the bottom:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216 and you can see the problem on NH view:

14BA9CCF-0AE1-4036-94C8-F98189979548.thumb.png.ba66bc0abbf29171c950509b1fc12404.png

There is certainly no oomph in the Atlantic but those high latitude heights just won’t drain, this hangover from a very unusual winter carries on into late spring, I’m afraid.  

Yes, its just that this month it just happens that it is likely to be the omnipresent trough as opposed to the ridge last month, i can see a whole year of spells of extremes coming up, i went for above average rain this month, now i am beginning to think my 80 odd mm will bust well on the low side, could be one of the wettest May's on record

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

The Ecm12z should give a good chance of warm sunny spells and thundery showers or outbreaks with slack pressure over the country...

image.thumb.png.e3c2779a4260a23c631904804701dfe5.png image.thumb.png.548645e9c73ef9f1df75a0d9f158da2b.pngimage.png

Good growing weather I should think... 

(btw Ed I think the Gfs Op is a troll)

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216 and you can see the problem on NH view:

14BA9CCF-0AE1-4036-94C8-F98189979548.thumb.png.ba66bc0abbf29171c950509b1fc12404.png

There is certainly no oomph in the Atlantic but those high latitude heights just won’t drain, this hangover from a very unusual winter carries on into late spring, I’m afraid.  

Northern blocking is most likely to show its hand in May, the PV traditionally collapses, and the atlantic lies firmly in its annual slumber, the synoptics above are quite typical. Sometimes we sit on the warmer side of the jet, sometimes colder side.. this May its the colder side that looks like winning out for the first half of the month at least. Fingers crossed we may see some favourable ridge development build during the second half, perhaps courtesy of mid atlantic heights at first.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just a quickie..the longer term GEFS 12z mean is indicating that pressure will rise somewhat beyond mid month..which is the trend on recent runs, no guarantees as there’s some very mixed ensembles but on balance, currently I think there are grounds for optimism that by the final third of May the weather landscape could be looking rather nicer than it is this week?!   ☀️ 

0D3CCCAA-2521-4BBD-808C-C9A75D7AEAAC.thumb.png.daa9276d7e877373642f08a1c22058b4.pngC52081CE-EEA3-49E8-9227-6A3AAE5A5A3D.thumb.png.e8f71b2b6339815a5a707dabad470bb4.png  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
21 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:


Spot on mate.

Mid teens even into parts of Scotland numerous times throughout next week.

Just picking another random day out for next week - Monday shows the potential ongoing thunderstorms risk for many parts of the UK and Ireland.

UKV snapshots:

Monday 12:00

B8298C6E-E221-416A-A028-A08EAD48F425.thumb.png.c233f7d5e9490a3ecc6b4dd0042574ed.png66406C95-1A26-42F3-A73D-02A64301EC00.thumb.png.0f1aac828dd5fe337eb09a5165bdade8.pngA07657EA-F3F9-4A19-ADAE-DA1F3DC40F27.thumb.png.1c18175dd2a6392c2600a69d3530122e.png
 

15:00

A85F3A27-FD35-4BC6-8AB7-4AD08E6697F1.thumb.png.81df1424fa379830820ecbbe817072f5.png
 

Obviously convection forecasts at this range are just for fun but once again it highlights the potential! (Sunday through the first half of next week - not excluding today which was fantastic - check out some of the pictures in the storm thread)

Risk for more of the same tomorrow - basically a Winter setup!

Quick look at the latest ECM seasonal temperature/rainfall anomalies for the Summer months.

June: 

B6541BD7-F7AF-4F82-B37A-1E7430C82F21.thumb.png.3457b21590a41816f5496a6a8cb7b87c.pngF3459859-FED2-4DB0-8200-6B353AAAFAEC.thumb.png.386348fd4cbd03e72aae2e2a7464478a.png
 

July:

CFAEF06D-82B6-4CDD-BD79-F22DEEB0B4F9.thumb.png.a944013ad9a573ebd9cdef30aceb7ee2.pngED94F6EC-0A39-4810-968B-6C94644766F7.thumb.png.e435df120acecbeb308964e535504531.png
 

August:

43D0757D-E2E7-4FE5-AA1C-7CDEA5DC38F9.thumb.png.90e14e4e0bb2b023b0d3a4e911436546.pngF2F9D545-DD50-4B03-BE07-F5DD4C747FA2.thumb.png.7910dd9e8dabd3c41f6880eeba4bdc0d.png
 

No sign of extreme heat or above average rainfall.  
Fairly average temperatures for the North (excluding June) and slightly above average temperatures in the South for all three months. 
August looks the wettest month for most of us. (Even that is average overall for most)

Again don’t take these as gospel (new members/guests) - will no doubt look completely different on the next update. (June 1st) 

All the best!

I looked at the EC seasonal about 15 minutes back. Striking HP anomaly just to our west...which would suggest mundane summer fayre...pretty bland with the chance of some cooler incursions if troughing becomes stronger to our E and the HP ridges N at times (I suspect Icelandic/Greenland ridging may feature at times)

pdf2svg-worker-commands-76f4988985-555nt

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Does anyone have a radar snapshot/wind etc predicted for this Sunday, more especially southern areas? I need to make plans! 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:


Spot on mate.

Mid teens even into parts of Scotland numerous times throughout next week.

Just picking another random day out for next week - Monday shows the potential ongoing thunderstorms risk for many parts of the UK and Ireland.

UKV snapshots:

Monday 12:00

B8298C6E-E221-416A-A028-A08EAD48F425.thumb.png.c233f7d5e9490a3ecc6b4dd0042574ed.png66406C95-1A26-42F3-A73D-02A64301EC00.thumb.png.0f1aac828dd5fe337eb09a5165bdade8.pngA07657EA-F3F9-4A19-ADAE-DA1F3DC40F27.thumb.png.1c18175dd2a6392c2600a69d3530122e.png
 

15:00

A85F3A27-FD35-4BC6-8AB7-4AD08E6697F1.thumb.png.81df1424fa379830820ecbbe817072f5.png
 

Obviously convection forecasts at this range are just for fun but once again it highlights the potential! (Sunday through the first half of next week - not excluding today which was fantastic - check out some of the pictures in the storm thread)

Risk for more of the same tomorrow - basically a Winter setup!

Quick look at the latest ECM seasonal temperature/rainfall anomalies for the Summer months.

June: 

B6541BD7-F7AF-4F82-B37A-1E7430C82F21.thumb.png.3457b21590a41816f5496a6a8cb7b87c.pngF3459859-FED2-4DB0-8200-6B353AAAFAEC.thumb.png.386348fd4cbd03e72aae2e2a7464478a.png
 

July:

CFAEF06D-82B6-4CDD-BD79-F22DEEB0B4F9.thumb.png.a944013ad9a573ebd9cdef30aceb7ee2.pngED94F6EC-0A39-4810-968B-6C94644766F7.thumb.png.e435df120acecbeb308964e535504531.png
 

August:

43D0757D-E2E7-4FE5-AA1C-7CDEA5DC38F9.thumb.png.90e14e4e0bb2b023b0d3a4e911436546.pngF2F9D545-DD50-4B03-BE07-F5DD4C747FA2.thumb.png.7910dd9e8dabd3c41f6880eeba4bdc0d.png
 

No sign of extreme heat or above average rainfall.  
Fairly average temperatures for the North (excluding June) and slightly above average temperatures in the South for all three months. 
August looks the wettest month for most of us. (Even that is average overall for most)

Again don’t take these as gospel (new members/guests) - will no doubt look completely different on the next update. (June 1st) 

All the best!

Last July was pretty poor this actually looks like a hot month for the South atleast bearing in mind July is on average our hottest month a mean max of 26c+ will be welcomed by many down here and no doubt more than a few days hotter than that

 

Not a surprise to see August wettest isn't it nearly always hahaha, I much prefer June and July anyway and always book my annual leave before the kids holidays as its cheaper to go places and I don't have kids

(Hooefully we will be allowed to travel soon!)

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