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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The 12z gfs op making a stab at being the pub run as it brings a decent snowfall early next week to c southern England arcing around to central parts of Wales 

anyway, the story remains that we look likely to stay on the cold side first half may with the possibility of catching a short lived plume receding 

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z op run is horrific, look at the rainfall totals by mid month if it were to come off.

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Could May 2021 be the love child of May 1996 & May 2007  

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Bring on the snow down south next week

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Bring on the snow down south next week

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Sod that!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I’m not sure -2c uppers in mid May will bring much in the way of snow

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Meanwhile in eastern Europe Poland enjoys 26-30C most days next week, GEM has 33-35C in southern Poland though the middle of the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 hours ago, Tamara said:

There is a simple answer to that, which is not intended at all to be a clever offering It is simply that a numerical model interpretation of AAM  (atmospheric angular momentum is a representation of the turning force of the jet stream) evolves and changes with time and is prone to bias errors over increasing time scales. It is a forecast interpretation, that evolves and changes according to those biases - but it is not the raw diagnostic.

The diagnostic model leads the numerical model, not the other way around. That is why the Global Synoptic Dynamical Model plots exist (GSDM) . They are totally  independent and separate from numerical model forecasts of AAM that are the derived and sometimes flawed interpretations. The numerical AAM forecasts simply provide insight as the how these models interpret jet stream patterns at a given snapshot of time.

A diagnostic model is divorced from model biases - it is a raw consolidated real time calculation of global wind-flow inertia (i.e the changes of the path and velocity of the jet stream) and intended to be used independently of NWP forecasts as an insight as to how numerical models may evolve (and change according to their biases and misreading of signals).

A constant repetition with no apology - signals lead models, models do not lead signals...

As things stand, and according to analysis given earlier this weekend, the first hints are coming that both the atmospheric circulation pattern and changes in seasonal wavelength patterns are starting to adjust the amplification wavelength across both the Pacific and Atlantic. Some retrogression of the pattern is actually a very good thing at the moment for many part of Western and central europe (including also many western Mediterranean regions) because it starts to allow sub tropical heat to finally advect northwards and repel the incessant polar cold air advection that has dominated for so long.

For NW parts of europe and especially the UK on the maritime edges, this is not likely to be seamless warm up. So wise to not see any step change warming up from such a low base as a linear process to sustained warmth but as a staged transition.

However,  assuming that the direction of travel of both tropical and extra tropical forcing remains buoyant as discussed in detail the other day, and adheres to a non dynamic ushering in of the polar stratospheric summer - then there is a way out of the anomalously cold pattern for Northern Europe and which would also represent the first experience of sustained seasonal heat for someone like me who has not embarked on a holiday, but is permanently relocated in her new home - and will need to adjust a way of life to some lovely siesta time 

Thanks Tamara, but notwithstanding that, and I don’t disagree with it in the main, just place a different emphasis on GloSea5, etc. vs GSDM is all, your last paragraph about the longer term direction direction of travel is largely the same as my thoughts, isn’t it?  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z temps at 18Z for the next 12 days here......

image.thumb.png.a9d7aa741fd61ffb12ac9dce60bf31b6.png

 

it's even colder here on the 12Z. GFS does underestimate the temps a bit but still that's very cold for May.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z temps at 18Z for the next 12 days here......

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Blimey, no wonder it's showing snowfall. What a joke! All on the 12z Euro now to show something a bit more positive, fingers crossed!

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I don't think its unreasonable to say the 12Z is absolutely hands down the model output I've ever seen in late Spring (he says as typing away with the rain lashing against the house) 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don't think its unreasonable to say the 12Z is absolutely hands down the model output I've ever seen in late Spring (he says as typing away with the rain lashing against the house) 

I’m loving your pessimism in this thread right now, Chris!  It makes me feel glad to be alive to wander out in a cool breeze and some drizzle!  I know Bournemouth has a microclimate but didn’t think it worked that way .

Light at the end of the tunnel maybe on GEM 12z, T240, a signal that I think will grow as we move forward:

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Look out for Azores UK link up after next week in the model output….

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Thankfully the 12Z was a massive surface temp outlier. But still getting anything above 12C in the next two weeks looking highly unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

snaw in May  or should that be a  did it really snow in June once?

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11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Thankfully the 12Z was a massive surface temp outlier. But still getting anything above 12C in the next two weeks looking highly unlikely.

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Based just on the GFS model, you have not factored in the ECM, GEM or any other model, other models indicate higher temps 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

snaw in May  or should that be a  did it really snow in June once?

Yes, it did @lassie23 2/6/75.  Pretty much UK wide, have posted the charts before, can’t now as the archive charts on meteociel haven’t been restored.  

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2 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Based just on the GFS model, you have not factored in the ECM, GEM or any other model, other models indicate higher temps 

Agreed but GFS has annoying consistently, GEM output for early week isn’t great now. Hopefully ECM keeps it less bad and GFS backs down, personally I just don’t see that happening currently. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it did @lassie23 2/6/75.  Pretty much UK wide, have posted the charts before, can’t now as the archive charts on meteociel haven’t been restored.  

Interestingly that year very quickly redeemed itself. Was known as the summer of fire and ice, and it’s only because of the baking hot year of 76’ that 75’ is often overlooked. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Interestingly that year very quickly redeemed itself. Was known as the summer of fire and ice, and it’s only because of the baking hot year of 76’ that 75 is often overlooked. 

Yes, ‘75 was a hot summer too, and with the dry winter following was largely responsible for the drought that took hold so strongly in ‘76.  

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Rubbish outlook at the moment. But have patience, it will pass soon! It would not surprise me if we had a freak heatwave that threatens to shatter records out of the blue again this summer. If we get a spell of weather like the end of May 2012 I would also be very pleased. Probably the best sunny and hot period of that awful year that is often forgotten! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Rubbish outlook at the moment. But have patience, it will pass soon! It would not surprise me if we had a freak heatwave that threatens to shatter records out of the blue again this summer. If we get a spell of weather like the end of May 2012 I would also be very pleased. Probably the best sunny and hot period of that awful year that is often forgotten! 

Please don’t wish on us anything that happened in spring 2012, because of the summer that followed ☠️

Hasn’t the country suffered enough these last 13 months?  

I’m not seeing a 2012 summer this year at all, I should add…

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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Rubbish outlook at the moment. But have patience, it will pass soon! It would not surprise me if we had a freak heatwave that threatens to shatter records out of the blue again this summer. If we get a spell of weather like the end of May 2012 I would also be very pleased. Probably the best sunny and hot period of that awful year that is often forgotten! 

Any freak heatwaves to that level will be tricky given SST anomalies will only likely get worse in the coming weeks. 

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