Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Scorcher]

55 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

2018 wants a word

I'm meaning more in the last 12 months or so. High pressure dominated up to June last year and since then we've hardly had any prolonged warm highs over us.

[Methuselah]

According to today's GFS 00Z, something a tad less chilly might arrive next weekend:

     

     

     

     

So neither settled nor warm, but at least the likelihood of overnight frost should abate?

And, as per usual, the immense degree of clarity on the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles reveals all:

     

Edited May 2, 2021 by General Cluster

[Man With Beard]

This may be a bit of a "hope" post, but I note the ECM is increasingly trying to stall the incoming low for next weekend. If it corrects any more, it could suddenly get very warm up the eastern side of the UK

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

This may be a bit of a "hope" post, but I note the ECM is increasingly trying to stall the incoming low for next weekend. If it corrects any more, it could suddenly get very warm up the eastern side of the UK

It’s just a glimmer of hope as it’s really still very brief and would only benefit those in the east. GFS keeps us in the cold right the way through to mid month after the briefest of 850 warm ups and the departing low again gets stalled to our east dragging down another northerly and cold pool. Any warm up at the surface maybe apart from an abatement of frosts just doesn’t look like happening and ensembles are back below average and tightly grouped to the end of the run.. 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

This may be a bit of a "hope" post, but I note the ECM is increasingly trying to stall the incoming low for next weekend. If it corrects any more, it could suddenly get very warm up the eastern side of the UK

Next few runs should begin to firm up on whether this is a transient stalling or whether an amplification in Europe gains traction. At the moment, may looks no more likely to bring warmth than April did ..... but we know things can change quickly on occasions. The eps spreads in the extended offer quite a range of scenarios ......

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

This may be a bit of a "hope" post, but I note the ECM is increasingly trying to stall the incoming low for next weekend. If it corrects any more, it could suddenly get very warm up the eastern side of the UK

Plenty of interest in that run for me personally, especially seeing the GEM follows suit and even goes as far as hitting us with some very heavy rain, originating from N. Africa/the Med! In both of those models, things get interesting with the LP to the West/SW churning up lots of heavy rain and yes, even some warmth! ECM also develops thunderstorms from Devon/Dorset up to Hull next Saturday night.

Usually, the ECM is first to pick up these ideas, then Goofus follows suit a day or two later.

[johnholmes]

Not got time to post charts, just about to go out on a 'bluebell' walk' ! But I think my usual upper air anomaly charts are beginning to show the first signs of a change in the upper air pattern. If true then in the 7-14 day period a gradual increase in temperature levels but with the negative side being for a more changeable weather pattern. I'll post charts later with some comments with them.

 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

It’s just a glimmer of hope as it’s really still very brief and would only benefit those in the east. GFS keeps us in the cold right the way through to mid month after the briefest of 850 warm ups and the departing low again gets stalled to our east dragging down another northerly and cold pool. Any warm up at the surface maybe apart from an abatement of frosts just doesn’t look like happening and ensembles are back below average and tightly grouped to the end of the run.. 

That's not what the ECM shows though. The low does stall but a little bit too close to the UK for the whole of the country to benefit fully from some proper warmth.

Afterwards however there is no sign of the cold 850 hPa temps returning- the warm air has sent the -5C air a long way to our north.

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Afterwards however there is no sign of the cold 850 hPa temps returning- the warm air has sent the -5C air a long way to our north.

I actually hope you’re right, sorry fellow coldies but I’ve pretty much had enough of cold air now!..it’s a waste of space in MAY unless you’re on a Scottish mountain!...and the GEFS is still showing a change to less cold / less unsettled from mid month onwards!...fingers for something more summery evolving!    

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mother Goose]

I really hope so too Jon. I live on a hill farm in the Borders, and I'm sick of the cold weather now.

[damianslaw]

Looks like we will exchange the cold northerly flow for the upcoming week, for a more typical westerly flow following week, cold and wet for something average but still wet. A poor first half to May on the cards.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Not got time to post charts, just about to go out on a 'bluebell' walk' ! But I think my usual upper air anomaly charts are beginning to show the first signs of a change in the upper air pattern. If true then in the 7-14 day period a gradual increase in temperature levels but with the negative side being for a more changeable weather pattern. I'll post charts later with some comments with them.

 

I wouldnt call more rain "negative", lol, seeing as everywhere is bone dry.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

seeing as everywhere is bone dry.

They won’t be tomoz..a very wet 0z / 6z for 3rd May from the models..for the majority!  ? ️..lovely jubbly  ..very weclome rain innit?!

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[johnholmes]

500mb anomaly update

Sunday 2 May 2021

Ec now shows an actual upper low centre just off w’ern Ireland giving a s’ly flow into the uk with quite low contour values over the uk. So no marked warming up indicated on that; the weather probably best described as ‘unsettled’ with that pattern.

Noaa has a quite marked trough just west of the uk, extending s’wards to the Iberia area. Its contour heights, (always shown higher than ec) is also quite low for the uk; the contour over central England originates over n’ern Canada! It also suggests unsettled weather albeit with rather higher temperatures than we have recently been experiencing. Looking at the 8-14 and the trough is, as is often the case in the extended outlook, shallower with the contour values higher than the 6-10 shows. Also a slight signal for +ve heights in the azores area with a very slight hint of ridging in that envelope.

So, as I suggested earlier, possibly, an indication of some change in the basic weather pattern in the 8/10-14 day outlook. But only a tentative signal. Another 2-3 outputs and this extending into the 6-10 noaa will give it more reliability.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by johnholmes
attempt to add photo!

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

500mb anomaly update

Sunday 2 May 2021

Ec now shows an actual upper low centre just off w’ern Ireland giving a s’ly flow into the uk with quite low contour values over the uk. So no marked warming up indicated on that; the weather probably best described as ‘unsettled’ with that pattern.

Noaa has a quite marked trough just west of the uk, extending s’wards to the Iberia area. Its contour heights, (always shown higher than ec) is also quite low for the uk; the contour over central England originates over n’ern Canada! It also suggests unsettled weather albeit with rather higher temperatures than we have recently been experiencing. Looking at the 8-14 and the trough is, as is often the case in the extended outlook, shallower with the contour values higher than the 6-10 shows. Also a slight signal for +ve heights in the azores area with a very slight hint of ridging in that envelope.

So, as I suggested earlier, possibly, an indication of some change in the basic weather pattern in the 8/10-14 day outlook. But only a tentative signal. Another 2-3 outputs and this extending into the 6-10 noaa will give it more reliability.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Great news..it’s going to get warmer..eventually   ?..well.summer is less than a month away so I would certainly hope so ?????!!!      

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

GFS 06z again not interested in any warmth and slides next weekends low through running it along the south coast leaving us in the cold again. Complete opposite of the earlier ECM run.

[Methuselah]

IMO, it's at times like these when JH's and mushy's anomaly charts really come into their own? Making predictions based on single model-runs is futile:

GFS 06Z temperature profiles:         

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by General Cluster

[Frosty.]

Ok guys listen..the GEFS 6z shows potential..but don’t let me mislead you..there could be a crappy trough parked over the u k?.....BUT......I choose to believe that the second half of May will be better..!!..just my opinion..and my opinion counts for nothing..so ignore me!  

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

You won’t hear me complaining if mid May looks like this!!!... ...however, it could be a rocky road ahead, there’s a mixed bag in the ensembles to say the least, including the op ...BUT.. I sincerely hope we will see a taste of summer during the second half of May..the transition from spring to summer can be a painful one but I’m hoping it’s smooth..yeah I’m a dreamer! ! 
 

cheers  

karl

 

[Guest]

According to the GFS ensembles its a complete lottery from the 8th onwards, maybe an indication of a pattern change? That’s said the Ops run again in the coldest grouping (where it has been for the last month now) so maybe the form Pony? 
 

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

According to the GFS ensembles its a complete lottery from the 8th onwards, maybe an indication of a pattern change? That’s said the Ops run again in the coldest grouping (where it has been for the last month now) so maybe the form Pony? 
 

Interesting to see a few members going for a something warmer this weekend- demonstrating the fact that the movement of that low is still up the air.

The ECM looks a lot warmer for Saturday and Sunday with the low stalling more to the south west. Could be quite warm and humid over the weekend if this comes to pass. I don't know about everyone else but I'm desperate to feel some air of tropical origins for once. Sick of this constant nip in the air and cold nights.

This is a reminder that it's May now (although hard to believe when you step outside) and if we get the setup, things will warm up very quickly.

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Interesting to see a few members going for a something warmer this weekend- demonstrating the fact that the movement of that low is still up the air.

The ECM looks a lot warmer for Saturday and Sunday with the low stalling more to the south west. Could be quite warm and humid over the weekend if this comes to pass. I don't know about everyone else but I'm desperate to feel some air of tropical origins for once. Sick of this constant nip in the air and cold nights.

This is a reminder that it's May now (although hard to believe when you step outside) and if we get the setup, things will warm up very quickly.

There’s still that cold feeling lingering like you say. It’s almost like winter 2020/21 hasn’t fully let go, and apart from those brief warm days in late March, there’s been a constant chilly feel to things.

The plus side is, the air is dry and fresh. I am looking forward to a shift towards hotter weather with dry heat, and a mixture of humid and thundery days. 
 

I will thrown my hat in the ring and predict the first group of thunderstorms will appear in England and Wales on the weekend of 21st, 22nd May, after a few days of 26-28c temps. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational I feel a sudden urge to say BOOM!!..at last, some warm uppers (850’s)...if it verifies..oops my head just exploded..excuse me!! ?!!!  

Edited May 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Zak M]

Great 12z ECM!

   

A very warm run. Could be some cracking thunderstorms too if this verified.

[Mike Poole]

Really difficult to tell where we are going from here, folks.  GFS 12z at T258 spells out the best end of the available options, I think:

Before that it looks like a nasty wet and unseasonal  spell.