Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

A change is as good as....er....a change..

Great post  

I agree with you and Ed (Pete)....  ....anyway..I can see a way out of this current crap pattern to something more summery?...just had a look at the GEFS 6z and there’s potential...now where have I heard that before..  

Edited May 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

I would think that a change from dry & cold to wet and average is well under way -- GEFS 06Z ensembles:

     

     

After that? Who knows!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I would think that a change from dry & cold to wet and average is well under way -- GEFS 06Z ensembles:

     

     

After that? Who knows!

Hey Ed..a change is as good as a rest..I dig it..lol  

Being serious..there’s hope that the second half of May will be better than the first half judging by the GEFS 6z ...couldn’t be worse?.. .I’ve just had a trip in my time machine and I can assure you this is the case!    

Edited May 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I would think that a change from dry & cold to wet and average is well under way -- GEFS 06Z ensembles:

     

     

After that? Who knows!

Problem is wet and average really means still probably cold at the surface

[Britneyfan]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Problem is wet and average really means still probably cold at the surface

If it’s Atlantic sourced air from the south west probably would feel warmer cos it won’t be the cool artic air over us now so would feel more comfortable and average for us is around 16 degrees, so warm enough 

[Scorcher]

26 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

If it’s Atlantic sourced air from the south west probably would feel warmer cos it won’t be the cool artic air over us now so would feel more comfortable and average for us is around 16 degrees, so warm enough 

Agreed, I think I would take some milder Atlantic air right now, even if it meant wet and unsettled. It's pretty cloudy right now with the Arctic air anyway. 

[Britneyfan]

37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Agreed, I think I would take some milder Atlantic air right now, even if it meant wet and unsettled. It's pretty cloudy right now with the Arctic air anyway. 

That’s exactly my thinking, cold and wet ain’t my thing, warm and wet is better if it has to be wet, cos if we pick up a south westerly we increase humidity too, something we deffo not had in spring, so far anyway, apart from maybe the random 24° day lol so anything from the south west  will feel warmer than anything coming from the north or north west 

[Methuselah]

And now our best friend, the GFS12Z, has extended the garbage even further! When will it ever end?

     

[Frosty.]

The oscars have nothing on this..ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, for your consideration..May 5th Gfs 12z operational!!!... booo booo hiss not more snaw..are you kidding me?  

[Guest]

It’s another extremely cold GFS run, the Ops bar a two day period around the 8th is 5c below the 850 mean for entire run, desperately poor. The only positive is it’s in the colder grouping of runs but even then it’s by no means an outlier. Mean also trending below average again well into the second tercile May. 

[LetItSnow!]

Just now, Alderc said:

It’s another extremely cold GFS run, the Ops bar a two day period around the 8th is 5c below the 850 mean for entire run, desperately poor. The only positive is it’s in the colder grouping of runs but even then it’s by no means an outlier. Mean also trending below average again well into the second tercile May. 

Be interesting to see a CET prediction for the first-half of May. Expecting a notably cool first half. If so, interesting where we go from there. Not guaranteed a cooler than average month yet. May, 2004 springs to mind; had a very unsettled start but then very warm, high pressure dominated second half. Not quite sure I feel this month will go that way this year though...

[Guest]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

Be interesting to see a CET prediction for the first-half of May. Expecting a notably cool first half. If so, interesting where we go from there. Not guaranteed a cooler than average month yet. May, 2004 springs to mind; had a very unsettled start but then very warm, high pressure dominated second half. Not quite sure I feel this month will go that way this year though...

Well given the outlook we’ll need a very warm and extended period in the second half of the month to get anywhere near an average CET. 

[Scorcher]

I wonder if this year will be known as the year without a spring. Thoroughly miserable output from the GFS.

[Frosty.]

Patience Grasshoppers, mid May...MAY be the turning point?!!...yet again the GEFS is hinting at an improving picture from around mid month onwards..perhaps Yoda knows something we don’t ?!  

 Do..or do not..there is no try... .. ..wise words indeed  

Edited May 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Britneyfan]

13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Patience Grasshoppers, mid May...MAY be the turning point?!!...yet again the GEFS is hinting at an improving picture from around mid month onwards..perhaps Yoda knows something we don’t ?!  

 Do..or do not..there is no try.. ..wise words indeed  

Brilliant post always look forward to your posts! Personally people on here take each run as gospel for some reason, every run is always going to be different and it’s going to be extra hard at moment because when it comes to a change of pattern it could take days to pin down that pattern change from the cool spell to a warm spell, they will chop and change from every run 

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, hope-casting aside, let's see where we are this evening with the T+240 output from the main models - this takes us to Tuesday 11th May:

ECM, JMA, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from the 12Z:

A real old mixed bag  - next weekend's LP still far from resolved. GFS seems quickest to push the LP through, send it south and build the ridge behind it but it's not an orientation for warmth with a N or NE flow across southern Britain.

ECM keeps the LP over us - it's the theme I was talking about last evening. With heights building to the west and to the east, the trough ends up stuck over the British Isles . JMA is interesting - it keeps northern blocking but there's also a hint of heights rising to the south and south west so more of a SW'ly flow. GEM is a bit of a mess with heights building to the north west and south east.

The risk remains as we move into May, the trough gets stuck too near us for any warm air to be advected north and the heat passes to the east. The tendency for continued amplfication to the west and north west further reduces the chances of an air flow sourced from a warmer source and keeps the risk of a stagnant picture with the LP sitting over the top of us.

The best case scenario is the Azores HP gets drawn up NE towards us but it's not likely to settle to the east but close to us or just to the south west which would keep the weather settled for most but with an Atlantic flow.

[Mike Poole]

52 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Patience Grasshoppers, mid May...MAY be the turning point?!!...yet again the GEFS is hinting at an improving picture from around mid month onwards..perhaps Yoda knows something we don’t ?!  

 Do..or do not..there is no try... .. ..wise words indeed  

17th May will be the turning point.  Just when we’re allowed to meet indoors the weather will go through a gear change!  I guarantee it.  ECM T240 only to 11 May but you can see where it is going…

Seriously though, a major flip to warm is due, and I’m saying mid May.  Will it be dry or humid though?  I feel this could be the year for plumes - at some point, but late may could be quite settled I think.  

[Scorcher]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

17th May will be the turning point.  Just when we’re allowed to meet indoors the weather will go through a gear change!  I guarantee it.  ECM T240 only to 11 May but you can see where it is going…

Seriously though, a major flip to warm is due, and I’m saying mid May.  Will it be dry or humid though?  I feel this could be the year for plumes - at some point, but late may could be quite settled I think.  

Let's hope we get stuck in a hot pattern for months on end once things do flip, just as we seem to have been stuck in this relentless cold pattern for ages.

I can't remember the last time we had a strong, genuinely warm area of high pressure over us. It's been a long, long time.

[Earthshine]

40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

17th May will be the turning point.  Just when we’re allowed to meet indoors the weather will go through a gear change!  I guarantee it.  ECM T240 only to 11 May but you can see where it is going…

Seriously though, a major flip to warm is due, and I’m saying mid May.  Will it be dry or humid though?  I feel this could be the year for plumes - at some point, but late may could be quite settled I think.  

Honestly I'd take a humid but warm second half to May at this point!  Fed up of having to put my puffer jacket on at this point!  If it weren't for that nagging wind and those heavy rain showers it might, I dare say, be rather pleasant out!

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, Earthshine said:

Honestly I'd take a humid but warm second half to May at this point!  Fed up of having to put my puffer jacket on at this point!  If it weren't for that nagging wind and those heavy rain showers it might, I dare say, be rather pleasant out!  (And yes, I am a warm weather lover, however at his time of year I think I'm entitled to whinge about the lack of at least mild weather!).

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by Earthshine

[Cloud 10]

Good agreement between the GEFS and ECM ensemble mean for lower heights around the Arctic/Greenland area than we have seen for quite some time as mid-May approaches.

 

The UK is still stuck in a trough at that timescale,but with some minor tweaking,some genuine warmth could be achieved.

 

[Don]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Seriously though, a major flip to warm is due, and I’m saying mid May.  Will it be dry or humid though?  I feel this could be the year for plumes - at some point, but late may could be quite settled I think.  

Oh no, I hate plumes!  Hot temperatures combined with high humidity is no fun IMHO!!  I would take a summer 2018 over 2020 any day!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

44 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Let's hope we get stuck in a hot pattern for months on end once things do flip, just as we seem to have been stuck in this relentless cold pattern for ages.

I can't remember the last time we had a strong, genuinely warm area of high pressure over us. It's been a long, long time.

2018 wants a word

[minus10]

As many excellent posts have stated the short term outlook for next week or so is not good for temps (although at least some decent rain should be had). It seems like winter just will not go away. However the 12z gfs ens show that during the second half of the run the weather will be dominated I think more by HP (for Hertfordshire).

 

Also the reduction in precipitation corresponds with this (weo couple of extreme outliers)

The temps (both 850 and 2m) look disappointing as not showing a clear warm up with frost risk ever present. However a very slight increasing trend is still present. (Glass half full)

It just depends where the HP sets up . As @cloud10 states above lower heights around the Greenland area are now being signalled. So this should help increase the chance of HP setting up in a more favourable position. However nothing is certain currently in this, one of the most volatile of springs. Crazy thing is once again in the sun today it felt warm with light winds, until the cloud came over. No showers yet here in this northerly showery spell either..

[ANYWEATHER]

Slim pickings for anyone who wants some warmth....welcome rain for some , but looking at the overall pattern , in the next ten days still cold with night time frosts next week , the low pressure for next weekend looks like ebbing further south ...