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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The Lerwick short range 06z gefs really plummeting as we head towards May as yet more Arctic air heads our way.

I suppose the NH will re-arrange itself eventually in favour of some warmer weather.

 

gfs-lerwick-gb-60n-1w.thumb.png.18cade5f8c59112996d1522247b8e105.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.c609de2a25b958a9b259837ed3fbaadf.png

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I know sometimes we get excited / frustrated when model watching and sometimes exaggerate but goodness gracious me If there was a worst chart of the year award this from the GFS 06Z would be tough to beat. This is so bad its almost unreal. 3-5C at 18Z in the south. 

The only positive I can take from the 06Z is that is so it surely can't get any worse. 

 

376484570_Worstchartoftheawardgoestoo....thumb.png.8891da210cfe5106db5a18db845b6bca.png

 

 

 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

I suppose the NH will re-arrange itself eventually in favour of some warmer weather.

 

gfs-lerwick-gb-60n-1w.thumb.png.18cade5f8c59112996d1522247b8e105.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.c609de2a25b958a9b259837ed3fbaadf.png

OMG I love cold weather...lol..yeah I’m a coldie..go figure?..anyhoo, the models this spring are unusual to say the least...but whatever the GEFS 6z ... & the rest of spring throws at us..it’s only another 4 weeks max and then the full glory of summer will be with us..hopefully? ..anyway..at least the sun will be high, at least the days will be looong..yeah I’m being positive..honest guv?!...     ..and who lives in Lerwick..?..a few .lol

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

That takes some beating ....doesnt it ....for the 6th May on the gfs 6z ??

image.thumb.png.02f267d855ded26dca70c0c5e7c8dbdf.png

Apart from the cold and the rain/sleet, it would be the wind that would be the talking point: potentially 60mph + gusts if this verified.

image.thumb.png.d566a61b68e8f77319cdfaaeb39e5e2c.png

 

As its FI good chance that it wont, however it is incredible that it is even being shown: weird weather .....dont panic !!!!

image.thumb.png.34e858a74f9611b1d0f9db37c02787aa.png

 

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1 minute ago, minus10 said:

That takes some beating ....doesnt it ....for the 6th May on the gfs 6z ??

image.thumb.png.02f267d855ded26dca70c0c5e7c8dbdf.png

Apart from the cold and the rain/sleet, it would be the wind that would be the talking point: potentially 60mph + gusts if this verified.

image.thumb.png.d566a61b68e8f77319cdfaaeb39e5e2c.png

 

As its FI good chance that it wont, however it is incredible that it is even being shown: weird weather .....dont panic !!!!

image.thumb.png.34e858a74f9611b1d0f9db37c02787aa.png

 

Think the concern would ECM 00Z had something almost identical @ 240hrs and the GFS 00Z also had a similar overall pattern.  

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Last one from me before I go have several very large and very strong drinks to recover from this mornings model diarrhoea. 

The 06Z ensembles continue to paint a worsening picture with protracted cold and unsettled spell digging in, really its more akin to late Feb or early March. 

1275328964_BmthEns.thumb.png.bd4f5c5f7ba1809a84ed97ba74ccc1f5.png

But spare a thought for those in the Shetlands, I don't think I've seen such a depressing set of ensembles. 

326977102_LerwickEns.thumb.png.f6f43eb8a20e63cdb81c3218eadeb7bd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But spare a thought for those in the Shetlands, I don't think I've seen such a depressing set of ensembles. 

326977102_LerwickEns.thumb.png.f6f43eb8a20e63cdb81c3218eadeb7bd.png

I’m sure the sheep  won’t mind?...anyway, the models / ensembles are sometimes wrong..aren’t they?...for sure we are on the cusp of a cool spell with predominantly sunshine and showers..but Shirley that’s better than further tinder-dry drought conditions!   

004839B0-7B2B-4FAE-B99A-0B0C86B75E3D.thumb.jpeg.35fcd3d10a9a726cef4fcd337516caf6.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

But spare a thought for those in the Shetlands, I don't think I've seen such a depressing set of ensembles. 

 

There's a good reason not many people live there. I find it rather amusing that the Lerwick ensembles are being discussed here- surely there aren't many Netweather members from Lerwick?

A lot of hyperbole today from a couple of posters. It's not going to be anything like the cold spell we had earlier in the month and as always at this time of year, it will feel pleasant in any sunshine and shelter.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

There's a good reason not many people live there. I find it rather amusing that the Lerwick ensembles are being discussed here- surely there aren't many Netweather members from Lerwick?

A lot of hyperbole today from a couple of posters. It's not going to be anything like the cold spell we had earlier in the month and as always at this time of year, it will feel pleasant in any sunshine and shelter.

Fully agree, it’s not so bad according to the GEFS 6z..sure there’s a cooler spell imminent but big deal!..at least there will be some showers ? ☀️ ☔️ or even some occasional persistent rain..and oh boy do we need rain following a record breaking tinder-dry April ?...anyway, I’m sure the sheep  in the northern isles will be just fine! ..phew..that’s a load off..roll on summer!!!!.

599BB307-E60E-4885-B385-3C72AFDE4B7D.thumb.jpeg.874819c93b7495b535213a3519a3cc0a.jpeg3BCE8C8B-3EE4-4B5D-ADB7-E6FB8F0EBC60.thumb.png.f5728f604ffe4651a957ea6c944f02c2.png301D7DD8-F337-443D-BDD8-0000037E4DAF.thumb.png.7cb93aab32ddef3437913b2231a2dc7c.png254894E7-814B-45A3-A11F-893A9D44D629.thumb.png.a538d884c73ef1d2ab239190e7ae8cc4.pngA41534C7-ABED-4A24-A67C-81F11AA6E06A.thumb.png.1cc6c073585d0653ade7c92a08bf5460.pngFB4F3D16-47E3-4C78-9A38-D1F388512953.thumb.png.d4b6d3e40ff16eba2448c1f73931b79b.png926CF2C5-EC27-4489-A750-10360BD08DCC.thumb.png.cd2c61814b1bd4c177b45a45fe050f81.png23E87E27-B9C0-42E8-95CB-A1D23E1B77B6.thumb.png.f29dedb063fa1914ecfd4e11104d691c.png 

 

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Fully agree, it’s not so bad according to the GEFS 6z..sure there’s a cooler spell imminent but big deal!..at least there will be some showers ? ☀️ ☔️ or even some occasional persistent rain..and oh boy do we need rain following a record breaking tinder-dry April ?...anyway, I’m sure the sheep  in the northern isles will be just fine! ..phew..that’s a load off..roll on summer!!!!.

599BB307-E60E-4885-B385-3C72AFDE4B7D.thumb.jpeg.874819c93b7495b535213a3519a3cc0a.jpeg3BCE8C8B-3EE4-4B5D-ADB7-E6FB8F0EBC60.thumb.png.f5728f604ffe4651a957ea6c944f02c2.png301D7DD8-F337-443D-BDD8-0000037E4DAF.thumb.png.7cb93aab32ddef3437913b2231a2dc7c.png254894E7-814B-45A3-A11F-893A9D44D629.thumb.png.a538d884c73ef1d2ab239190e7ae8cc4.pngA41534C7-ABED-4A24-A67C-81F11AA6E06A.thumb.png.1cc6c073585d0653ade7c92a08bf5460.pngFB4F3D16-47E3-4C78-9A38-D1F388512953.thumb.png.d4b6d3e40ff16eba2448c1f73931b79b.png926CF2C5-EC27-4489-A750-10360BD08DCC.thumb.png.cd2c61814b1bd4c177b45a45fe050f81.png23E87E27-B9C0-42E8-95CB-A1D23E1B77B6.thumb.png.f29dedb063fa1914ecfd4e11104d691c.png 

 

 

 

Well Jon, I'm glad I ignored all what the doomsters were predicting, this time last week: unbroken sunshine and lumberjackets do not a good combination make?!

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20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

There's a good reason not many people live there. I find it rather amusing that the Lerwick ensembles are being discussed here- surely there aren't many Netweather members from Lerwick?

A lot of hyperbole today from a couple of posters. It's not going to be anything like the cold spell we had earlier in the month and as always at this time of year, it will feel pleasant in any sunshine and shelter.

Not really hyperbole at all, find a chart that doesn’t show anything other than well below average temperatures, increasingly unsettled conditions and ensemble groupings way below the seasonal norm into May and I’ll agree. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Lerwick is at 60 degrees north, compared to London at 51 degrees north. In terms of latitude, it's almost the same distance from London as Barcelona is. Not very representative of the most populated parts of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not really hyperbole at all, find a chart that doesn’t show anything other than well below average temperatures, increasingly unsettled conditions and ensemble groupings way below the seasonal norm into May and I’ll agree. 

Below average in May isn't a disaster though. Hopefully it will only be a short spell. Even if it's 11 or 12 degrees, in sunshine and out of wind it feels decent in May.

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14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Lerwick is at 60 degrees north, compared to London at 51 degrees north. In terms of latitude, it's almost the same distance from London as Barcelona is. Not very representative of the most populated parts of the UK.

The point was to show from one end of the country to another the extremely good agreement of a lengthy below average period. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The point was to show from one end of the country to another the extremely good agreement of a lengthy below average period. 

The thing is though the sun is so strong now that no matter how cool it is, in the sun and out of the breeze it feels pleasant..so cold 850’s don’t cut it like they would do in winter / early spring!...anyhoo, longer term GEFS 6z shows signs of improvement..and there’s plenty of time for summery conditions isn’t there!!!!..about 16 - 18 weeks worth of potential!!!? ☀️  

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
51 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Below average in May isn't a disaster though. Hopefully it will only be a short spell. Even if it's 11 or 12 degrees, in sunshine and out of wind it feels decent in May.

11-12c in May should be illegal we should be at mid to upper teens by then! Average May max here is 17.5c, 11c is truly shocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

 

Anyone wanting for a lovely start to May look away now!

999121986_gfs1.thumb.PNG.9b11d6e968c298617626f2630a573261.PNG726562081_GFS2.thumb.PNG.5c3d570a01754006107763a0fe48fc1d.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
1 hour ago, Mother Goose said:

That is just beyond depressing

 

Honestly! I hope there's some sort of turn around because this is not what anyone wants surely

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Thought I’d pop in looking for some warmth! At least those vile cold charts are in deep FI.

I’d rather get the iffy synoptics out of the way in May rather than having them in summer.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

11-12c in May should be illegal we should be at mid to upper teens by then! Average May max here is 17.5c, 11c is truly shocking.

I would much prefer it to be warmer too, but below average does happen- that's what averages are about, some days are below and some days above. I can't imagine that average is that high in the first few days of the month. 11-12C is not uncommon at the start of May, as much as I would prefer 20C+ of course. Very much a warming month though so plenty of time for things to flip.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

It would seem that anybody hoping that our current pattern would develop into one where the ridging moved south/east ala April/May 08 is not in luck as blocking remains fairly strong around the Arctic and low pressure takes a stronger hold over the UK. 

spacer.png

Whether this is May 07 or an early version of June 19 remains to be seen (the former just kept going, the later produced a horrific few weeks but settled into a nice summer core). 

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