Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Empire Of Snow]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Morning all,

I’m not going to beat about the bush, the Gfs 0z operational is painting a cool outlook, indeed, sometimes very unseasonably cool and then occasionally closer to average..BUT..what interests me is the increasing chances for welcome worthwhile rain!!! ? ️ which, following a generally bone / tinder-dry fire hazard April would be quite a relief I’m sure..Mother Nature always finds a way of balancing things out..assuming the Gfs is right of course???  !!!...   

Let's hope this inevitable balancing won't happen after June. I have a bad feeling that we're heading to a wet Westerly based summer. It's cloudy and cold today here, I don't know how the last 3-4 days METO gives highs of 18c for my area including today. Unless you're constantly moving to direct sun exposure spots, temp never got higher than 11-12c. Do they provide these highs for psychological reasons? Because by meteorology terms it doesn't make any sense. 

[Tim Bland]

Come on Spring..give us a break !

[Methuselah]

53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Come on Spring..give us a break !

Indeed Tim. Out to T+354 and still no sign of a decent chart!

      

And where's @MATTWOLVES, our resident never-say-die coldie, got to?!

Edited April 24, 2021 by General Cluster

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Let's hope this inevitable balancing won't happen after June. I have a bad feeling that we're heading to a wet Westerly based summer. It's cloudy and cold today here, I don't know how the last 3-4 days METO gives highs of 18c for my area including today. Unless you're constantly moving to direct sun exposure spots, temp never got higher than 11-12c. Do they provide these highs for psychological reasons? Because by meteorology terms it doesn't make any sense. 

Yup I've very worried about that balancing act, if ever a good summer was needed its this time round but omens are poor. 

Talking of poor the GFS 06Z is spouting utter garbage, at least we've had some sun so far this month, looks like any temps above 13C will be at a premium beyond early next week until well into May. Daytime maxes of 6-8C further look likely at times and not just the odd day. 

[Griff]

All these warm weather chasers... Always +10 days away....  

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Yup I've very worried about that balancing act, if ever a good summer was needed its this time round but omens are poor. 

Talking of poor the GFS 06Z is spouting utter garbage, at least we've had some sun so far this month, looks like any temps above 13C will be at a premium beyond early next week until well into May. Daytime maxes of 6-8C further look likely at times and not just the odd day. 

What 'omens'? The Mays of 1975, '83, '95 and 2013 were all rather grotty; but the following summers were all okay?

[PiscesStar]

34 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed Tim. Out to T+354 and still no sign of a decent chart!

      

And where's @MATTWOLVES, our resident never-say-die coldie, got to?!

Don't worry I'm here!! He will be delighted as am I...  

[Britneyfan]

Those temps will modify upwards they usually do, it also changes from run to run, 

[Frosty.]

I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe, I’ve seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion..I’ve seen +20 uppers on P9..yesss  ...nah, I haven’t really seen attack ships blah blah, I made that up!...anyhoo..the GEFS 6z mean long term does show signs of improvement again following quite a cool period?...perhaps as we go further into May there will be signs of summer?!!..for sure there are some decent perturbations longer term?!  ..,have a Great Saturday..peace  

Edited April 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Hopefully this from the Gfs 12z operational will put at least a little dent in the very dry April!!!!!!!!! ....although on this run, early May, for the most part looks rather dry?....anyhoo...it’s only one run...fingers we see some appreciable rainfall totals that do more than dampen the dust!!!!  ...sadly, despite whatever rain we get, it looks like a pathetically cool spell on the way...hoping for a plume in May, June, July & August!!!..gotta remain hopeful!  

Edited April 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Atmogenic]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hopefully this from the Gfs 12z operational will put at least a little dent in the very dry April!!!!!!!!! ....although on this run, early May, for the most part looks rather dry?....anyhoo...it’s only one run...fingers we see some appreciable rainfall totals that do more than dampen the dust!!!!  

The far southeast of those runs look bad still 

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS 12z mean offers slight encouragement that we may be about to exit the long cool tunnel we are about to enter .....but, it’s far from certain as there are some chilly members well into early May...anyway..I don’t care so much about the temperatures, I want to see some relief to the drought conditions!!!...and at least some of us may see some weclome rain ️ during the next few weeks!..longer term I will be keeping an ? on heights and warm air to the south ....and now..I’m outta here!!!..it’s so quiet and I simply can’t stand the excitement any longer ..I dream that one day this will become a hot topic again!!!!!  ..  

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are nowt to write home about. That said, there is a notable loss of coherence, post May 3. May the 4th be with you?

    

[phil b]

Come on ECM this is more like it!

 

[stodge]

Evening all

The T+240 charts (for a change) from ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP this evening:

A clear divide between those eager to maintain strong heights over Greenland and those in which there's enough Atlantic energy to "breakthrough" the ridge south east from Greenland and establish a more traditional W'ly pattern.

It's fascinating to see GFS OP which was strongly supportive of breaking down Greenland heights earlier in the week, now keen to maintain them well into next month. It's supported by GEM to some degree whereas ECM and especially JMA bring the Atlantic back into play which also inflates the Azores HP and pushes it NE towards western Europe.

Next week, though, looks cool, if not cold and cloudier under a NE'ly originating over northern Scandinavia so a "warm spring" very much on hold and April rounding off as a remarkable month in terms of lack of rainfall.

Will we "pay" for this down the line? I've no idea - heights to the north and west usually mean LP to the south and east and in spring that can mean a lot of rain (and snow) for Europe which can periodically pulse northwards toward southern Britain. GEM offers a flavour of that.

[Mike Poole]

Well it is that time, that the stratospheric polar vortex dies until late next autumn.  Here zonal wind chart from Stratobserve:

Just a few days now until the flow is easterly at 10 hPa level as it will be all summer of course.  It looks like a benign transition.  This may be important for summer prospects, because with no Atlantic dominated weather for months, the last thing we want is for a forcing to high latitude blocking over Greenland for summer.  A less benign final warming could have produced that.  But this looks like a natural gradual evolution that probably won’t impact much at the surface.  

With that in mind, the ECM T240:

It is kind of a nothing pattern, and I think we will see more nothing patterns, they are quite common in summer anyway, especially so I would suggest after a winter strangely berift of any significant weather from the Atlantic.  

AAM looks from CFS viewpoint to be continuing about average for the next month, so no bomb shells there either:

Neither nowt nor summat.

Finally SSTs, here current anomaly:

I’ve said before, in the absence of strong drivers, SSTs could play a larger role, so a warm link up with the Azores is to be welcomed as a result of the current high pressure period in the UK.  

So nothing scary in the woodshed for summer, early summer at least, long range models are supportive of a reasonable one, too, only caveat is the period July-August when some models show a trough in the vicinity of the UK.  But that seems a long way away at the moment. 

All the best, Mike.

[Mike Poole]

Talk of nothing patterns, here’s the ECM mean T240:

We walk in a wilderness of weather...

[Guest]

ECM this morning should come with a health warning this morning....

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS ensembles still look a tad messy; a twenty-degree variance in T850s looks interesting? More importantly the chances of some usable rainfall are still looking good:

    

    

Edited April 25, 2021 by General Cluster

[minus10]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

This morning's GEFS ensembles still look a tad messy; a twenty-degree variance in T850s looks interesting? More importantly the chances of some usable rainfall are still looking good:

    

    

I think the rain gauges would get a good workout if this was to verify  General...

It does look as if things will turn more interesting though at the turn of the month. Relief for gardeners and growers perhaps.....

 

[Eagle Eye]

Jet Stream forecast looks good but still quite far out and far from Perfect. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

ECM this morning should come with a health warning this morning....

It’s like Winter just doesn’t want to let go lol (although it has been quite pleasant here the last few or so days. I imagine this cool(ish) pattern has to break at some point). A nice chart above for that season, although if that Northerly had any chance of ever verifying, some Northern and North-Eastern UK snow shields could be put at risk with blizzards possible over high ground.

Edited April 25, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

I’ve learned a few things in my time on here since 2005..like there is no gain without pain... ...anyhoo...looking at the GEFS 0z.....the night is darkest before the dawn!....enough already...summer will come and I hope it’s GLORIOUS....fingers !!!!  
 

[damianslaw]

Models showing a very slow gradual trend towards something somewhat more unsettled, compared to last 2-3 weeks, though anything especially unsettled remains beyond the reliable timeframe.

In the short term - we lose the anticyclonic conditions and draw in a slack chilly northerly / north easterly airflow with heights moving to the NW and blocking the atlantic. Chance of some light rain in northern parts of Tuesday, and later in the week some places may see a few showers brought in on the cold NE wind. Temperature wise - oh dear, very poor for late April. Some places struggling to hit double digits underneath the cloud, not very springlike. Always the continued threat of frost at night, as we maintain cold uppers for the time of year.

As we move into May, signs we may exchange the northerly flow, for either a cyclonic trough dominated pattern as suggested by ECM, this would bring appreciable rain and unfortunately further disappointing temperatures, or we may see more of a westerly flow, with heights possibly trying to build in from the SW, but at the same time residual heights to the NW may put pay to that and instead we see a more zonal flow on a southerly track - meaning rain and again rather cool temps for May.

In overview, not a great picture if you are after any notable warmth, and in the short term at least if you are after rain and no more frosts, but longer term, some may be feeling happier if rain is what you are after.. personally I can take 2-3 weeks of rain and cool weather if it is exchanged for a much warmer sunnier drier second half to May.

[Frosty.]

OMG I love rain ️ ? ...give me more rain already!...and the Gfs 6z does..in spades!..albeit mostly in the form of showers..but what the hell...anything is better than a drought innit?