Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[PUTIN]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Immediate outlook, more of the same, high pressure dominating the scene, pleasant Spring weather for all, plenty of sunshine away from far east. Average temperatures by day, a little above in western parts, a bit cooler in the east. Still cold at night with threat of frost.

Into the last week of the month, a change forecast to generally cloudier skies, perhaps showery outbreaks and some light rain in parts of the north as we pick up a cooler NE flow again, heights moving to the NW.

Longer term, unclear where things may end up, GFS wants to scrub out heights to our NW and replace with the typical lower height development pressure, heights building to the south instead and a more normal westerly flow, wetter and cloudier conditions north and west, milder and drier in the south and east, and more importantly we pull in much more humid and milder uppers, much milder nights.

 

Plenty of sunshine IN this bit of the Far East too. 

Another very frosty morning this morning - temperature briefly touched -3c on my journey to work this morning, fantastic in the sunrise and as white on the bushes as the coldest Winter morning in those spots.

And definitely a nip in the air even in the day in this part of the world, along with the beautiful wall-to-wall sunshine.

[Methuselah]

I think (hope!) that the GEFS ensembles are firming up on a sustained warm-up through early May:

     

I wonder what the anomalies will show?

[mb018538]

26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I think (hope!) that the GEFS ensembles are firming up on a sustained warm-up through early May:

     

I wonder what the anomalies will show?

Not even sure it really constitutes a proper warm up....just a return to normal from this ridiculous run of cold weather. No signs of anything properly warm in the outlook either.

[Jordan S]

Low pressure to the southwest contributing to the southeasterly today remaining to the south next week moving east over the continent instead of pushing northwards, but another low pressure system moving down from the north during monday and tuesday along with a small area of rain, perhaps a little snow on high ground of Scotland. 

Generally showery for most of next week with winds mainly northerly/northeasterly, cooler than average.

A while out but higher pressure likely remaining to the west of the uk but possibly to the northwest too into next weekend,

Ecmwf..

low pressure will probably be close by, keeping showery conditions over much of the country and perhaps a longer spell of rain too, there will be drier spells ofcourse but remaining cooler than average for most and an increased chance of snow on high ground in the north.

The following week looks to remain mostly unsettled, more significant rain a possibility with temperatures likely rising.

Edited April 23, 2021 by jordan smith

[Frosty.]

Nice warm settled sunny end to the Gfs 6z operational with high pressure in control again, some chilly nights but the days become very pleasant..rather like now actually!...temps today reaching the 15-18c range...not cold!!  

Edited April 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Nice warm settled end to the Gfs 6z operational with high pressure in control again, some chilly nights but the days become very pleasant..rather like now actually!...temps today reaching the 15-18c range...not cold!!  

Not sure picking out the end of the run helps, before then its another extended run of cold weather with temps even in the south only struggling to 10-12C for 5-6days looking at the GFS 06Z. Midlands north and its single digits all the way. The Ensembles fully back that cold period up 27th-4th May. This mornings ECM was absolutely pants, had the 0C isotherm anchored way down south over north Spain / southern France still at day 10, just awful!

[Methuselah]

No real cause for concern on today's 06Z temperature ensembles: after a last hurrah (hopefully!) of nasty T850s, things still like improving, thereafter:

     

I suspect that this April will cause palpitations, when looked at, many years from now? Another CET (this time cold!) that hides the true nature of the month. Okay, it's been cold overnight, but sunshine totals look like being way above average?

[Frigid]

Looks like the GFS 12z ensembles are once again going for a prolonged cool spell. Difference with this one is it'll probably be more unsettled.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational shows a cooler spell on the way and even some rain around next week, not a lot..as Paul Daniels used to say but enough to occasionally dampen the dust...but the following week there could be some larger rainfall totals which..following such a dry April, would probably be welcomed by some?...anyway, this coldie is now searching for plumes for the next four / five months..wish me luck! ⛈  ️ 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Looks like the GFS 12z ensembles are once again going for a prolonged cool spell. Difference with this one is it'll probably be more unsettled.

Was just about to post the same, starting to looking like any warm up will now be well into May and as you same looking more unsettled with cold polar maritime airmasses swinging down over the country.  After such a cool month its a really poor outlook again daytime maxes once we get into next at least 2-5C below average for days and days potentially....  

Edited April 23, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

Hardly the end of the world: not one single air-frost forecast, for this neck-of-the-woods: 

    

[Mike Poole]

So to the 12z runs, and here is T192 from GFS, GEM and ECM:

It is cool due to the wind direction, but portends likely dry weather.  Anyone else noticed, there has been nothing, literally nothing, from the Atlantic since about October.  Weird weather these last 6 months or so...

[Frigid]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the 12z runs, and here is T192 from GFS, GEM and ECM:

It is cool due to the wind direction, but portends likely dry weather.  Anyone else noticed, there has been nothing, literally nothing, from the Atlantic since about October.  Weird weather these last 6 months or so...

Watch it come back for vengeance during the summer, hopefully not 

[Climate Man]

31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the 12z runs, and here is T192 from GFS, GEM and ECM:

It is cool due to the wind direction, but portends likely dry weather.  Anyone else noticed, there has been nothing, literally nothing, from the Atlantic since about October.  Weird weather these last 6 months or so...

Its certainly different and could almost be termed climate over that period! I wonder if we are in for a turning point towards a new future associated with changes in the Arctic. Interesting model watching looks to continue but for the purist as very benign in terms of weather. 

[ANYWEATHER]

51 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Its certainly different and could almost be termed climate over that period! I wonder if we are in for a turning point towards a new future associated with changes in the Arctic. Interesting model watching looks to continue but for the purist as very benign in terms of weather. 

This is not unprecedented, or that unusual .......June the 3rd 1975 it snowed in some southern parts of Britain....! Looks cold next week...and into early May. ..

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the 12z runs, and here is T192 from GFS, GEM and ECM:

It is cool due to the wind direction, but portends likely dry weather.  Anyone else noticed, there has been nothing, literally nothing, from the Atlantic since about October.  Weird weather these last 6 months or so...

Yes, going along with that is an absence of a coherent jetstream for ages. Next five days on gfs12z illustrates this well

Literally all over the place. Although this is not unusual for spring it does seem particularly pronounced this year. Will be really something different when a depression eventually comes rolling in off the atlantic. Maybe not until autumn though. .....

[Climate Man]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This is not unprecedented, or that unusual .......June the 3rd 1975 it snowed in some southern parts of Britain....! Looks cold next week...and into early May. ..

I remember. God I'm old! Temperatures not unprecedented nor the lack of precipitation.  Also the current huge diurnal range is pretty typical for the time of year. However I struggle to remember such a long period with no Atlantic.  I sure it has happened a number of times but it just "feels" different. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This is not unprecedented, or that unusual .......June the 3rd 1975 it snowed in some southern parts of Britain....! Looks cold next week...and into early May. ..

Well they have S and SW breeze, so not that cold

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

I remember. God I'm old! Temperatures not unprecedented nor the lack of precipitation.  Also the current huge diurnal range is pretty typical for the time of year. However I struggle to remember such a long period with no Atlantic.  I sure it has happened a number of times but it just "feels" different. 

 

Going back a fair while, but I remember the Sping 95 to Spring 96 period being one when the Atlantic was largely silent, with a predominance of northerly and easterly airstreams, I think April 95 to March 96 period was driest on record..

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the first half of March 1995 was quite "westerly" with a gale on the 17th but from then until late May we mainly had a mix of anticyclonic and northerly types. The Atlantic pushed in at times from late May through to late July but never took hold for long, with anticyclonic and northerly types dominant in June and southerlies in late May and July.  August was famously very anticyclonic.  September 1995 started cyclonic rather than Atlantic-driven.  There were again short-lived bouts of westerlies in late September & October but October 1995 was a southerly month with high pressure to the east keeping frontal systems mostly restricted to the north-west.  November 1995, though unsettled and quite mild, was a blocked month with blocking mostly in the wrong place for cold/snow except for a northerly on the 17th.

In the winter of 1995/96 the Atlantic was largely absent in December 1995, it made some inroads in early to mid January 1996 only to be pushed away by a large Scandinavian blocking high, and it made only short-lived arrivals in February 1996 (one of which brought a major snow event at the end of the first week) and it was absent again in March.  There were brief Atlantic-dominated spells in late April and late May of 1996 but otherwise anticyclonic, southerly and easterly types featured in April and persistent north-easterlies in May, which weren't far short of giving us our coldest May on record.

There were also only short-lived Atlantic-dominated spells in the summer of 1996, with a significant anticyclonic spell in the middle of all three summer months.  September 1996 was anticyclonic/easterly.  So from my recollections, after mid-March 1995 we didn't have a lengthy Atlantic/westerly spell until October 1996!

OK, so that's quite a lengthy historical post, but it illustrates that it's not unprecedented for the Atlantic to be largely quiet even over a period of a year and a half.  In spring and early summer it is fairly common for it to be largely absent for long periods (I don't remember much in the way of westerlies in April/May in 2010, 2016 or 2020 either).  So the upcoming outlook, with high pressure giving way to northerlies, is not out of the ordinary, although the persistently cool weather of April has been notable.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

When people say they can't remember when we had an Atlantic spell last, I'm assuming they mean a 'lengthy' one? Only last month there were two bouts of Atlantic gales, on the second weekend and towards the final weekend before the warm spell. December also featured a run of Atlantic weather from about the 10th up until Christmas. Even mid January and the third of week of February brought Atlantic influence, the latter more against a brick wall to the east.

I'd rather call the last six months episodic rather than featuring an 'absent' Atlantic. Unless there's a significant pattern change, it would not surprise me if an Atlantic-dominated or influenced start to May, would be swiftly replaced by a resumption in rather blocked synoptics once more... hopefully of the warmer variety for all!

[Frosty.]

Morning all,

I’m not going to beat about the bush, the Gfs 0z operational is painting a cool outlook, indeed, sometimes very unseasonably cool and then occasionally closer to average..BUT..what interests me is the increasing chances for welcome worthwhile rain!!! ? ️ which, following a generally bone / tinder-dry fire hazard April would be quite a relief I’m sure..Mother Nature always finds a way of balancing things out..assuming the Gfs is right of course???  !!!...   

Edited April 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Well, I've seen worse; and the operational and control runs are firmly at the colder end of the spectrum (GEFS 00Z) this morning:

    

It's nice to see some quite warm ensemble-members starting to appear now, even though they still are clearly in a minority?

[Guest]

The new ECM parallel which will soon become the main Ops run is even poorer than the current Ops run. It never really brings any warmth anywhere near UK, in fact by the 4th May 850s are widely 7-8c below average...

Edited April 24, 2021 by Alderc

[mushymanrob]

On 20/04/2021 at 15:39, mushymanrob said:

Troughing looks like becoming dominant around the end of the month and into May, so we should see some rain which is needed badly. Weve only had 1.7mm here in Derby this month!

On the minus side, its looking like remaining cool with temps below average.

 

Yep, anomalies look like calling this weeks pattern right again...