Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Iceman2606]

The very dry April continues as ECM shows practically no proper rain in sight up the beginning of May!

[Methuselah]

GFS at Day 10. And it's looking sheee-it!

     

[Frosty.]

Comparing like for like, not much change in the Gfs 12z operational since yesterday is there?...lol......anyhoo, who fancies another Arctic shot?..  

 

All the Best

Karl..I mean Jon..I mean Karl..I mean Frosty..  ..now I’m confused

Edited April 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Gee whizz, what's this? Nathan Rao will be having kittens!

       

[minus10]

16 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Gee whizz, what's this? Nathan Rao will be having kittens!

       

The GFS 12z is just now taking the p**s is it not,

From this 

To this

 

I mean, a joke's a joke, but hey,,come on now! 

 

[Guest]

Post about day 5/6c gfs turns into a car crash with another northerly outbreak and max temps 4-6c below average through the early BH weekend. This pattern does nothing for anyone really, cold and miserable and not doing anything to deliver any useful rainfall. Before then a pretty reasonable 4-5days although those on the east coast probably won’t think so as a keen easterly at times likely to keep temps pegged right back. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Alderc

[78/79]

Must admit I'm not complaining at the moment, this dry weather is great for me work wise .

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Must admit I'm not complaining at the moment, this dry weather is great for me work wise .

I have to agree, Andy: my early-season suntan is coming along, a treat! 

But, hey, we're British; we can always find something to moan about -- even though it hasn't even happened yet?

Edited April 21, 2021 by General Cluster

[78/79]

32 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I have to agree, Andy: my early-season suntan is coming along, a treat! 

But, hey, we're British; we can always find something to moan about -- even though it hasn't even happened yet?

Must be warm under those Polytunnels Pete, I've been working in my shirt sleeves the past few days, building a natural stone wall . This has got to be better than rain hammering down the whole time.

[minus10]

The BBC are reporting this morning that the met office will be working with microsoft to produce a new super super computer which is planned to be operational by the summer of 2022. Purpose is to produce enhanced weather forecasts and weather and climate modelling. The power of this computer will be some 6 times greater than what is currently used. It will run on 100% renewable energy and will have more than 1.5 million processor cores and more than 60 petaflops - or 60 quadrillion (60,000,000,000,000,000) calculations per second. Phew! Do you think that would make the UKMO or its equivalent a world leader? Certainly make model output discussions even more interesting. No real change on current output though. Still fairly dry easterly based although GFS still hinting at changes towards the end of the run.

[Methuselah]

11 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Must be warm under those Polytunnels Pete, I've been working in my shirt sleeves the past few days, building a natural stone wall . This has got to be better than rain hammering down the whole time.

Indeed Andy, it's great in the polytunnels . . . in which, if this morning's GEFS ensembles are anything to go by, I'll  be staying for some considerable time:

    

That said, so long as it's nae raining, anything above about 11C has me in tank-tops anyway!

Edited April 22, 2021 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

Morning all,



Still not much in the way of rainfall forecast in the next 10 days. There is an increased risk on Monday/Tuesday as a shallow low swings down...but this doesn't pack a lot of punch, and most of the rain is likely to be in northern areas before it weakens. Beyond this it looks mainly dry once again, though temperatures will be disappointing. Quite a way below average as colder air from the north and east feeds in once again. Western areas with some shelter look like faring best for temperatures in this set up.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

The BBC are reporting this morning that the met office will be working with microsoft to produce a new super super computer which is planned to be operational by the summer of 2022. Purpose is to produce enhanced weather forecasts and weather and climate modelling. The power of this computer will be some 6 times greater than what is currently used. It will run on 100% renewable energy and will have more than 1.5 million processor cores and more than 60 petaflops - or 60 quadrillion (60,000,000,000,000,000) calculations per second. Phew! Do you think that would make the UKMO or its equivalent a world leader? Certainly make model output discussions even more interesting. No real change on current output though. Still fairly dry easterly based although GFS still hinting at changes towards the end of the run.

Thanks for the info mate...I tell you what it's us mere mortals on here who are the bread and butter of forecasting,and unless they give us lot access to view it they can shove it

Next 4 days looking good,plenty of sunny spells and temps around mid teens,perfect to get put and about and get a little top up off Vitamin D..next week does look to turn cooler and generally more cloudy as Heights retreat! But you guessed it,still no appreciable rain in the outlook.One hell of a dry April this is turning out to be! I've really missed those beautiful Rainbow formations in the sky. Hopefully some convection for you storm chasers before much longer.

Enjoy..

 

[Methuselah]

At last, a chart with a modicum of hope!

     

[Climate Man]

At the beginning of the month I mentioned that residual heights over Greenland may lead to a below average April CET. Still hanging in there at month end.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

At the beginning of the month I mentioned that residual heights over Greenland may lead to a below average April CET. Still hanging in there at month end.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

It has to collapse (or at least relocate itself to somewhere more favourable) at some point, I hope; and early May's as good a time as any:

     

 

[PUTIN]

Can someone explain what's with the dewpoints? Fascinating looking at them on Meteociel.

e.g.

Leeming air temperature at 15.48: 15c

Leeming dp at 15.48: -11c

Leeming 'anomaly': 26c

Loftus air temperature: 12.2c

Loftus dp: -14.1c

Loftus anomaly: 26.3c

 

Are such huge differences common / normal? (I've not looked at dew points before this year)

And. . . really ignorant question coming up I know. . .  if the dp is so low, how come the frost still melts in the shade?

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Can someone explain what's with the dewpoints? Fascinating looking at them on Meteociel.

e.g.

Leeming air temperature at 15.48: 15c

Leeming dp at 15.48: -11c

Leeming 'anomaly': 26c

Loftus air temperature: 12.2c

Loftus dp: -14.1c

Loftus anomaly: 26.3c

 

Are such huge differences common / normal? (I've not looked at dew points before this year)

And. . . really ignorant question coming up I know. . .  if the dp is so low, how come the frost still melts in the shade?

Have you had visible frost there? There has been very little here. The only frost I could see first thing this morning was on the car windows. Such dry air.

[PUTIN]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Have you had visible frost there? There has been very little here. The only frost I could see first thing this morning was on the car windows. Such dry air.

Yes, the sea breeze drops out each night and there has been a frost every morning since I don't know when, except yesterday when it was misty. 

But true, nothing visible on grass today only on cars in exposed spots which were covered. Whereas it was really thick / icy last week and weekend though similar daytime temperatures to this week.

[Climate Man]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

It has to collapse (or at least relocate itself to somewhere more favourable) at some point, I hope; and early May's as good a time as any:

     

 

Let's hope so. Just does not know when to give up. Hope for a safe return in 6 months.

 

[stodge]

Evening all

Perhaps the first signs from GFS in far FI of a relaxation in heights over Greenland and Iceland and a return of a more mobile Atlantic but that's a very long way off.

A very pleasant day here in lowland East London despite a keen E'ly breeze off the Thames.

Next week we get a brief return of the long fetch NE'ly and cloudier conditions and from there certainly through to month end no relaxation in some form of northern blocking primarily to the north west.

Into May, and as I say, GFS starts to sniff out a change but we've been here before so, as ever, more runs are needed.

[Cleeve Hill]

11 hours ago, minus10 said:

The BBC are reporting this morning that the met office will be working with microsoft to produce a new super super computer which is planned to be operational by the summer of 2022. Purpose is to produce enhanced weather forecasts and weather and climate modelling. The power of this computer will be some 6 times greater than what is currently used. It will run on 100% renewable energy and will have more than 1.5 million processor cores and more than 60 petaflops - or 60 quadrillion (60,000,000,000,000,000) calculations per second. Phew! Do you think that would make the UKMO or its equivalent a world leader? Certainly make model output discussions even more interesting. No real change on current output though. Still fairly dry easterly based although GFS still hinting at changes towards the end of the run.

UKMO is already a world leading forecaster. I recall in 2017 UKMO was the best performing model during the Atlantic Hurricane season. I was living and working in Antigua at the time and the forecast for Harvey, Irma and Maria was very good. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean, there are hints of something more summer-like with potential for warm air to waft up from the south on some of the perturbations...caution of course required as it’s not in the reliable timeframe but to me it’s logical that by the time we reach early / mid May there would be hints of something summery emerging!...in the meantime, most of us are enjoying some lovely sunny pleasant conditions but I’m talking about potential for continental warmth with temperatures rising well into the 20’s Celsius...I know we’ve already had an early taste of that not long ago but...I’m sure another spell of mid 20’s c would be welcomed by many!  

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Jon Snow

[ANYWEATHER]

I think next week Spring gets colder...it steps up a gear even some Wintry showers in the southern half of the UK.....

Edited April 22, 2021 by Mapantz
removed rant

[damianslaw]

Immediate outlook, more of the same, high pressure dominating the scene, pleasant Spring weather for all, plenty of sunshine away from far east. Average temperatures by day, a little above in western parts, a bit cooler in the east. Still cold at night with threat of frost.

Into the last week of the month, a change forecast to generally cloudier skies, perhaps showery outbreaks and some light rain in parts of the north as we pick up a cooler NE flow again, heights moving to the NW.

Longer term, unclear where things may end up, GFS wants to scrub out heights to our NW and replace with the typical lower height development pressure, heights building to the south instead and a more normal westerly flow, wetter and cloudier conditions north and west, milder and drier in the south and east, and more importantly we pull in much more humid and milder uppers, much milder nights.