Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey folks, the GEM is back on meteociel!  

But it does end up as an absolute rotter!  With heights where we don’t want them for summer. 

Summer? it's only April! hope heights not there for Summer

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Summer? it's only April! hope heights not there for Summer

Well these thing can stick around, but I’m sure it is off on one, see my previous post, with some genuine optimism for summer.  

[Frosty.]

Well I’ve posted quite a few cold charts in recent times so I think it’s only fair I post some warmer ones?...the GEFS 12z indicates the new month MAY bring some hints of the summer to come with a big warm up across France and perhaps southern u k?  

 

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Well I’ve posted quite a few cold charts in recent times so I think it’s only fair I post some warmer ones?...the GEFS 12z indicates the new month MAY bring some hints of the summer to come with a big warm up across France and perhaps southern u k?  

 

 

Yes, Karl, I think we will indeed see a major flip to warm, it can’t really go any other way with there being no Atlantic driven weather.  I’m putting the big flip to warm at about 10 May.  

Edited April 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! After the 00Z and 06Z caused a modicum of hope, the 12Z has truly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory:

    

But, as the 'fat lady' hasn't sung yet, don't titter, whatever you do -- she'll lose her pitch!

[minus10]

Incredible head of hot air bottled up over south eastern Europe and the mediterranean at the end of the ecm 12z run. All capped by hp further nw..

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Incredible head of hot air bottled up over south eastern Europe and the mediterranean at the end of the ecm 12z run. All capped by hp further nw..

I said a few weeks ago that it looks potentially a Russian heatwave year

[Eugene]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Incredible head of hot air bottled up over south eastern Europe and the mediterranean at the end of the ecm 12z run. All capped by hp further nw..

Lol, love how you fail to mention the cold pool of air over the UK in a UK model discussion thread, classic.  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Eugene said:

Lol, love how you fail to mention the cold pool of air over the UK in a UK model discussion thread, classic.  

I think that is a little unfair.  This thread does tend to look to the future.  I’ve mentioned the build up of heat that @Minus 10 is referring to a couple of times too, it could well become important down the line.  We will see...meanwhile more anticyclonic weather with the high in the wrong place for any warmth in the rest of April.

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Lol, love how you fail to mention the cold pool of air over the UK in a UK model discussion thread, classic.  

No need for that at all. The OP was simply pointing out something interesting on a chart.

[Iceman2606]

Temperatures likely to be around the 10-14°C mark for the foreseeable which will feel very pleasant in any sunshine with the settled theme of weather continuing.☀

 

Ongoing frost risk under any clear skies.❄

Edited April 17, 2021 by Iceman2606

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I said a few weeks ago that it looks potentially a Russian heatwave year

Normally goes hand in hand with a W Europe trough, not great if the case... unless of course we get reverse zonality and a 'beast' from the east...

[Jordan S]

I just wanted to wait until the Gfs updated this evening so I wouldn't have to edit this to include it..

Even though there has been a fair amount of model output changes over the last 24-48 hours.. not much I think has changed with the outlook since.. high pressure will move into much of the country by wednesday next week bringing dry weather back to Scotland and northern Ireland, although now the possibility of a few showers developing for England and Wales on Tuesday before it becomes mostly dry for all here.

That high pressure still more likely to be positioned just to our east and northeast later next week.

Winds probably turn southeasterly for a time for many..

It will probably turn warmer for most, more particularly the west and south of England with temperatures likely reaching upto the high teens for some although perhaps cooler by the end of the weekend.

Thursday

Saturday

The Gem has been showing a different placement of high pressure for friday-sunday next week but now it's moving back closer to the Gfs..

low pressure still could move close to the south or southwest too later next week with more model output showing the chance now, bringing the possibility of slow moving rain and showers into the south and southwest by the weekend, but for central, northern and eastern areas again it will probably remain dry.

Here's the Icon and Ukmo with that very similar scenario with a low fairly close to the south with rain in the far southwest..

Icon..

Ukmo..

Though that rain may end up being kept away to the southwest.. keeping all areas mostly dry.

The Ecmwf is showing a different placement of the high at the end of the week with cooler conditions and the high just to our north then northwest next weekend with it a little unsettled but does show the rain chance in the south and southwest later next week.

A quick look at the following week and I think it's more likely that it turns unsettled for the southern part of the uk aswell as cooler with rain likely at times some possiblly slow moving, with higher pressure looking likely at the moment to be positioned just to our north with the influence extending over northern areas of the uk.

This Gfs evening output shows this well.

The exact synoptics may be different once we get to this week to some extent but i think this may be quite close to the actual outcome in this case.

Scotland and northern Ireland may remain mostly dry and settled during the first half of that week, temperatures possiblly close to average in the north but in any wet weather further south then temperatures may be a few degrees below average but with any sunshine here in this pattern temperatures not too far from average.

[Methuselah]

Maybe some tentative signs that the warmth might be about to escape its shackles, but I'm not going to get excited just yet:

     

     

     

I guess the 00Z GEFS temperature ensembles broadly agree with that guess? It's about time!

    

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, jordan smith said:

I just wanted to wait until the Gfs updated this evening so I wouldn't have to edit this to include it..

Even though there has been a fair amount of model output changes over the last 24-48 hours.. not much I think has changed with the outlook since.. high pressure will move into much of the country by wednesday next week bringing dry weather back to Scotland and northern Ireland, although now the possibility of a few showers developing for England and Wales on Tuesday before it becomes mostly dry for all here.

That high pressure still more likely to be positioned just to our east and northeast later next week.

Winds probably turn southeasterly for a time for many..

It will probably turn warmer for most, more particularly the west and south of England with temperatures likely reaching upto the high teens for some although perhaps cooler by the end of the weekend.

Thursday

Saturday

The Gem has been showing a different placement of high pressure for friday-sunday next week but now it's moving back closer to the Gfs..

low pressure still could move close to the south or southwest too later next week with more model output showing the chance now, bringing the possibility of slow moving rain and showers into the south and southwest by the weekend, but for central, northern and eastern areas again it will probably remain dry.

Here's the Icon and Ukmo with that very similar scenario with a low fairly close to the south with rain in the far southwest..

Icon..

Ukmo..

Though that rain may end up being kept away to the southwest.. keeping all areas mostly dry.

The Ecmwf is showing a different placement of the high at the end of the week with cooler conditions and the high just to our north then northwest next weekend with it a little unsettled but does show the rain chance in the south and southwest later next week.

A quick look at the following week and I think it's more likely that it turns unsettled for the southern part of the uk aswell as cooler with rain likely at times some possiblly slow moving, with higher pressure looking likely at the moment to be positioned just to our north with the influence extending over northern areas of the uk.

This Gfs evening output shows this well.

The exact synoptics may be different once we get to this week to some extent but i think this may be quite close to the actual outcome in this case.

Scotland and northern Ireland may remain mostly dry and settled during the first half of that week, temperatures possiblly close to average in the north but in any wet weather further south then temperatures may be a few degrees below average but with any sunshine here in this pattern temperatures not too far from average.

A trend to something more unsettled before month is out a distinct possibility, MJO and AAM activity both indicate heights eventually affecting to the NW to possibly allowing something unsettled from the SW to move in, and winds from a north to east quadrant.  Until then another predominantly dry fine week ahead and following the trend of the month something that bit warmer than the previous with temps more akin to the average for mid to late April but still cold nights with some frost but not as widespread or severe as recently.

[ChannelThunder]

11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I said a few weeks ago that it looks potentially a Russian heatwave year

What would that mean for our summer? Aka, are there examples of past years when this has happened that can be looked at?

[minus10]

Well the ECM0z is at odds with GFS0z ...no surprise there. Day 8

 

One staying cool/cold while the other warming up.

ECM0Z mean day 8 and GEFS ens

Current signal from ecm is to stay cool/cold and while gfs op is near top of pack lets hope it is nearer the mark regarding a warm up. Otherwise we will have to continue to rely on the daily increasing strength of the sun. Also a predominately dry prospect still with continual chance of frost. Not the best outlook for gardeners/growers...however we shall see......

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by minus10

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well the ECM0z is at odds with GFS0z ...no surprise there. Day 8

 

One staying cool/cold while the other warming up.

ECM0Z mean day 8 and GEFS ens

Current signal from ecm is to stay cool/cold and while gfs op is near top of pack lets hope it is nearer the mark regarding a warm up. Otherwise we will have to continue to rely on the daily increasing strength of the sun. Also a predominately dry prospect still with continual chance of frost. Not the best outlook for gardeners/growers...however we shall see......

Ah, that would explain why the highest daily max, shown on the BBC app, during the next 14-days, is only a measly 12C!

And that reminds me: the two most horrendous summers -- temperature-wise -- I can recall, were 1972 and 1993; I don't want to see a repeat of either of them!

Edited April 18, 2021 by General Cluster

[Neilsouth]

Sick and tired of this never ending North/North East wind! Worst I can remember for some  years, any sign in the models of it shifting? 

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well the ECM0z is at odds with GFS0z ...no surprise there. Day 8

 

 

absolutely, and this is where the anomalies come into play.... and this pattern is consistent, ill offer no commentary, ill let you people decide which run is closer to the anomalies.

 

[Cloud 10]

32 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Sick and tired of this never ending North/North East wind! Worst I can remember for some  years, any sign in the models of it shifting? 

 

Certainly not from the overnight ECM with a strong signal for height rises to the NW,the GEFS  has similar ideas but not such a strong signal.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Lance M said:

What would that mean for our summer? Aka, are there examples of past years when this has happened that can be looked at?

Generally hot Moscow summers mean we end up under a trough, although I think 2018 the warmth was shared across Europe east to west. 

[snowblizzard]

17 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Certainly not from the overnight ECM with a strong signal for height rises to the NW,the GEFS  has similar ideas but not such a strong signal.

 

Dec, Jan or Feb it would be gone in a flash!

[Frosty.]

Ok..cards on the table, longer term GEFS 0z mean May seem rather bland to some, this might astonish you..yes I’m a die-hard coldie in winter and most of spring but Lordy Lordy..when we see our first major warm up into the low / mid / upper 20’s Celsius..nobody will be happier than me!!!..fingers crossed for heatwaves, plumes..thunderstorms..hot sun..I’m ready!!!..when there is no further hope of a late sting from the Arctic!  

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Well at Day 10, it's still a 'waiting game': once the deep cold dissipates, we'll be open to attack from both the SE and SW? But I do feel that, as far as any real heat is concerned, the wait may be longer than many of us might hope for?