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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Still a cool high T144 on ECM, not as bad as 0z I’m sure:

E0A72E41-9A69-4EA4-A5F1-F1F00A6612B0.thumb.png.1878e4feaf10f663f51328554bd9d5b8.png

Worth a look to the SE on the NH chart, for what might be waiting in the wings should a high pressure cell align favourably rather than the current unfavourable setup.  There is a lot of heat down there already, I’m not sure what mechanism would waken the Atlantic up after the last 6 months or so, and in summer at that, so sooner or later you might expect this heat to be in play if winds from the continent continue to be a feature.

T850s and anomalies at T144 on ECM:

3CBC14EE-2216-4CA1-8F14-B726D45BD4DC.thumb.png.d1aeabab6d8cd18143ecbe8411734a8f.png85E13F28-4664-4369-89FD-81EF73710B6F.thumb.png.f2275fb322651439a886e55fb57ec226.png

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

ECM isn’t highest res so can’t pick out particularly well urban heat islands but usually no further out than 1-2C this models temp predictions are better than GFS. Personally I’m very doubtful about 15C on Sunday in London I wouldn’t expect that with cloud as that shows, and still quite cool aloft I would expect ECM to be closer to reality but just my two cents. 

FFEE7896-A593-434C-AC98-3B82275A9967.thumb.gif.5d6d5b7e604883ff6085e12bdf416b92.gif

Interesting Daniel,20210416_195804.thumb.jpg.5c75119f3bbcaf6216236a850d977688.jpg BBC use ECM don't they? They're forecasting 15c in London Sunday also so I'm not sure now unless they're using a blend of other models too?

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Not much to add to the excellent posts from you guys this evening. Not a great outlook but looks like after tonite and maybe tomorrow night the frosts will become less of a problem. Can tolerate the cool temps as the sun is getting stronger every day but please, no more frosts.....

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As the song says

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Jack!   

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192 to T240:

551EF30B-7CC0-4FDC-BED9-15FD01498A02.thumb.png.6279183de4a1843072f166db4e1b439a.png

It is difficult from this to see where the warm up comes from in the next 10 days or so. High pressure in touching distance of the UK on all but cluster 2 which looks a bit out with other models.  But the high really isn’t in a good position.  So more shivering in pub gardens to come, but at least it will probably be dry for most.  

The T264+ has only one cluster, so does not add anything useful.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm high pressure holding out longer to our east over next 2-3 days, which in turn is enabling a lowering of heights to our north, once the high retracts, lower heights quickly replace them, and we develop a scandi trough with renewed heights building in but quickly advected to the NW, with further significant northern blocking.. 

I too cannot see any warm up any time soon, further mostly dry days ahead, perhaps more cloud in the east as we pull in eventually a chill NE flow, possibly becoming more showery, frost likely to be a feature for many days ahead.. strong chance based on current output could end up with our coldest April since at least 1989 and possibly colder than that one! Things can change though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Oh dear,...we would want these charts in the winter months,...not late spring...

the latest from the EPS day ten and CPC day ten plus ext

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.eb491bbbc53156ca5404e66eefe7b990.pngecmwf-ens_mslpa_nhem_11.thumb.png.7452e960988a1537fe4445083141d678.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.54bd507216f33d072f371ebafe617751.png

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it's sort of a rinse and repeat of what we have been having this winter,...well the latter half,we are being cursed for the good spring we had last year ha ha

here is the reason why...,the mjo is moving through the phases 6/7/8>1 favorable for blocking to our N/NW

gefs/ecm

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i would take one last blast of cold air(i said this the last time) cos i did enjoy the heavy Graupel showers which was some interesting weather but i want to get out and about to enjoy some proper warmth now,...bring on some summer heat and storms☺️

catch ya l8ters

 

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To be honest the model consistency hasn’t been great with Ops outliers and ensembles shifts. If you don’t like what you see wait 24/36hrs and it’ll change 

Thursday night to this morning 

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The latest update using the 500 mb anomaly charts, well my version of them!

Saturday 17 th

Ec not much change really from the above pattern ( not shown but for last Wednesday)

Noaa also fairly similar

Perhaps the only major question, in terms of the actual uk weather, is what effect the cut off upper low may have on s’ern areas, noaa has a marked trough rather than a cut off beneath the upper ridge both show. The 8-14 noaa is similar.

So little signal for any marked change in the upper air pattern for a couple of weeks! Not good news for gardens and farmers wanting some rain. That is unless the upper low/trough gives some outbreaks for southern areas? Not sure just where the upper and surface high may be in 7-10 days time, The upper air pattern, just slightly, seems to suggest to me that it may edge s-se which could allow some frontal effects to affect the more nw’ern parts? Overall though most areas, based on the last 2 or 3 charts, would suggest staying mostly dry, warming up a bit by day but, dependent on cloud cover, still quite chilly at night

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

From day 4 to day 10 on ecm0z the 'new' azores semi permanent hp sits between Scotland and Iceland. Not the best position for us. 

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Just when we need the Azores HP it shows up in the wrong place.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
15 hours ago, Scorcher said:

We usually agree but we will have to agree to disagree here- I enjoy your posts so please don't take this the wrong way. I think Mr Frost hit the nail on the head in his analysis of the posts about the anomalies- I can't see a consistent pattern in what you've been posting about them over the past couple of weeks- there do seem to have been contradictions and flip flopping from them.

Its ok, no offence here, lol.

The point is, you cannot take one of the occassions they are inaccurate to dismiss the entire output. We all know that they are never accurate all of the time but the point is that most of the time they are, by a long chalk.  Just look at the current 00z GFS, and how its suckering in people who want warmth when the anomaly charts do not support the 00z gfs... as far as im concerned, the gfs 00z is wrong, it has a very remote chance of happening especially when the current ECM runs are nuch closer to the Anomalies.

You say theres no consistency.... i disagree ... these are from last Sunday, Tuesday and yesterday.... theres a clear gradual consistent evolution of the high pressure that will most probably build later this week.

I must add.... NO ONE wants warmth more than i do... but apart from a few pleasant days in the next few days, the outlook is average at best, but below average and even cold are most likely. And im fearing the dreaded North Sea grey stratiform cloud on a northeasterly by next weekend... sunniest in the West, but dreadful in the East.

sequence.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Any warmth apart from the odd day or two looks like remaining out of reach for the next couple weeks ......I did muse early last week that the mean upper ridge could end up further west than we’d like with incursions from scandi troughs. Unfortunately this looks like playing out through the remainder of April ..... will a change of month bring a change of fortunes on the warmth front ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Any warmth apart from the odd day or two looks like remaining out of reach for the next couple weeks ......I did muse early last week that the mean upper ridge could end up further west than we’d like with incursions from scandi troughs. Unfortunately this looks like playing out through the remainder of April ..... will a change of month bring a change of fortunes on the warmth front ?? 

Doesn’t look like it to me. AAM likely to fall into May as easterly trades pick up again. Likely to turn it more unsettled in our locale. Ok, it may mean westerlies return in a form and pick temps up that way, but I think proper warmth is off the menu for now.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Doesn’t look like it to me. AAM likely to fall into May as easterly trades pick up again. Likely to turn it more unsettled in our locale. Ok, it may mean westerlies return in a form and pick temps up that way, but I think proper warmth is off the menu for now.

Of course a warm up in the temps will often be associated with a drop in the settled nature of the weather, especially if thats been a cool period too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

 

Still looking on course to be a very dry April. Barley any rainfall showing up to the 27th for many parts of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hey folks, the GEM is back on meteociel!  

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But it does end up as an absolute rotter!  With heights where we don’t want them for summer. 

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