Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[mb018538]

ECM looks even worse. Sick of this cold air. Hoping this is some kind of bad joke outlier

[mb018538]

Hard to believe there's such a shift from last nights ECM 12z ens to this mornings 00z output. Let's see what the ensembles say....

[Frosty.]

A sneaky mini-arctic shot at the end of the Ukmo 0h...you little tinker Ukmo! ...must admit I wasn’t expecting the arctic to visit our shores again anytime soon but it’s always welcome as far as I’m concerned..if we can’t have a plume, let’s have another arctic shot..even if it’s only a mini me version!!!!!   

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hard to believe there's such a shift from last nights ECM 12z ens to this mornings 00z output. Let's see what the ensembles say....

It’s a massive and incredibly disappointing flip pretty much across the board however the GFS Ops run has been bashing out this sort of tosh most of the week and in stark contrast to most of its own ensemble pack.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Op pretty much out on its own. Lets hope it is wrong. ( i dont care for cold at the end of April )

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Op pretty much out on its own. Lets hope it is wrong. ( i dont care for cold at the end of April )

Thankfully the ECM mean doesn't look anything as bad as the OP run, which as @Mr Frost says is a whopping outlier. Let's hope it stays that way!

[Scorcher]

That is a truly atrocious run from the ECM.

It is an outlier but why are the op runs seemingly never at the better end of the pack?

This is a slightly worrying trend for me. Like most people I'm in desperate need of some warmth now after such a depressing few months.

Sick to the teeth of air frosts as well now- yet another one here this morning.

[mushymanrob]

22 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That is a truly atrocious run from the ECM.

It is an outlier but why are the op runs seemingly never at the better end of the pack?

This is a slightly worrying trend for me. Like most people I'm in desperate need of some warmth now after such a depressing few months.

Sick to the teeth of air frosts as well now- yet another one here this morning.

Disagree about it being an outlier.... the Anomalies are supportative of high pressure building to our north and northwest as  @Allseasons-si has illustrated above . The ECM imho is likely to be close to what we actually get.

The outlook is bad for heat seekers, bad for those wanting rain... and the drought conditions are set to continue which will be damaging to agriculture (little grass growth, poor crop growth)

[Polar Maritime]

Yes very dry here currently Rob, Was rolling the fields yesterday which turned into a very dusty job.. As you say a pretty dry outlook.

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 0z T192 is a stonker!

[summer blizzard]

I'd be wary if the Euro were correct. It's getting close to washout scenarios (needs to model that channel low a little further north east) and we have seen that the pattern can persist.

Edited April 16, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 0z T192 is a stonker!

My god Feb..

 That's almost a 'boom' chart.

Insane for middle of April.

MIA

[mb018538]

GFS 6z with a much more palatable outcome than the vile ECM:


 

[mushymanrob]

32 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

The fact is though...ECM OP is a huge outlier compared to its own mean.

Also forgive me for not having 100% faith in the anomalies you post...they are prone to swings just as much as everything else it seems.

Few recent posts from you just to highlight my point.

05/04

 

06/04:

 

Tuesday (this week)

 

And then of course today’s post you have made.

I honestly get this image/chat in my head...everytime you post stating how great they are.

 

I am sure they are a good tool to use as @johnholmes has explained many times - prone to errors like everything else model/chart related though.

Yes - much more likely the way forward.

Temperatures warming up for the UK into next weekend. (23/04)

 

I would still take a cheeky wee punt on mid teens maximum Monday, Tuesday next week, slight drop off midweek then a warm up to average/slightly above once again for most of the UK through the weekend.

What happens after that? Not a clue. 
 

GFS has been performing well for the UK over the last couple of weeks - can’t rule it out trumping the ECM.

Erm...im not sure about the point you are trying to make here, those charts DID become very close to reality... No one has said they are always 100% correct, far from it, but when they are consistent then they are the most accurate for the timeframe they pertain to As those previous posts of mine confirm.

 

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Disagree about it being an outlier.... the Anomalies are supportative of high pressure building to our north and northwest as  @Allseasons-si has illustrated above . The ECM imho is likely to be close to what we actually get.

The outlook is bad for heat seekers, bad for those wanting rain... and the drought conditions are set to continue which will be damaging to agriculture (little grass growth, poor crop growth)

I agree with what others have said about the anomalies though- they haven't been on the money at all over the past couple of weeks.

They certainly didn't show the cold air persisting for this long.

I get that they are very useful but they are not 100% like any other forecasting tool.

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Hard to believe there's such a shift from last nights ECM 12z ens to this mornings 00z output. Let's see what the ensembles say....

There’s been a gradual shift in ensemble guidance in last few days. Rather than a continued warming trend a cooling is now favoured later next week. 

 

[mb018538]

58 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There’s been a gradual shift in ensemble guidance in last few days. Rather than a continued warming trend a cooling is now favoured later next week. 

 

Very disappointing as you say.

The only good thing about the ECM Op run is that it is in a very small outlying cluster that bring low pressure straight down the North Sea. The bigger clusters keep it just out of harms way into Scandi.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

 

They certainly didn't show the cold air persisting for this long.

 

sorry, but i disagree with that too!

I blog daily, the blogs are based on the anomalies first as the skeleton to build a forecast around by matching to the nearest op run. Those blogs have talked about nothing but below average/cold/arctic blasts as far as temperature goes. The only time that was different was at the end of March when that warm spell developed at short notice.

Apart from that, and the suggested cold unsettled spell just after Easter when low pressure to our near North with cold air wrapped in its circulation was expected, they have been bang on or near enough.

But i repeat....NO predictive model suite is 100% and no one has ever suggested the Anomalies are.. but please, anyone, if you can produce evidence of a more accurate predictive tool for the 6-14 day timeframe, please feel free to share! Im very happy to use them and are very happy with their general accuracy rate, i wouldnt blog to over 4k people a day without a high degree of accuracy.

I would also suggest, listen the the voice of experience and knowledge, i did.

 

[knocker]

Regarding the question the other day of the frequancy of quite heavy showery activity with relatively high surface pressure to which I posted a short reply  which included tje 0900 Larkhill sounding. This did not indicate subsidence assosiated with classic anticycyclonic regimes and thus a curtailment of convection, but did have quite a deep potentially unstable layer in the lower troposphere.  Compare that to today where the former applies

Edited April 16, 2021 by knocker

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Those temperatures look way too low mate - tomorrow and Sunday for example. (Rest of the days also)

This is more like it.

Tomorrow: UKV has 13C maximum for London. (Chart you posted above has 11C)

15:00

 

Sunday: UKV has 15C maximum for London. (Chart you posted has 12C)

15:00

Met Office/UKV will be much closer to the actual outcome - just my opinion of course. 

Met Office also throwing that ridiculous ECM run from this morning straight in the bin - check out their updated outlook. (GFS is king )

 

@mushymanrob

ECM isn’t highest res so can’t pick out particularly well urban heat islands but usually no further out than 1-2C this models temp predictions are better than GFS. Personally I’m very doubtful about 15C on Sunday in London I wouldn’t expect that with cloud as that shows, and still quite cool aloft I would expect ECM to be closer to reality but just my two cents. 

[Irishman in Yorkshire]

The 30 year average high in Sheffield is 12.3C and the low 4.1C (and the low is ameliorated by our urban location) There’s absolutely nothing abnormal about the range of temperatures we’ve been getting in many locations this month. More frost than we’ve grown used to, but strong April sun soon takes edge off the chill and April frosts are not rare in UK/Ireland. Expectations of April weather are well off the mark tbh.  

[Frosty.]

I must say the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne looks even more anticyclonic next week than this week with the high becoming centred over the u k so less chance of showers next week following a few splashes of rain early next week? ...anyway, I know the mean gives a broad brushstrokes overview of the situation and lacks the finer detail but on the face of it next week may be pretty decent overall?..thereafter, pressure starts to drain away but the pressure pattern remains very slack / slow moving and the Atlantic  like a mill-pond!   ️ 

Edited April 16, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Gee Whizz. You cannot be serious!

       

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry, but i disagree with that too!

I blog daily, the blogs are based on the anomalies first as the skeleton to build a forecast around by matching to the nearest op run. Those blogs have talked about nothing but below average/cold/arctic blasts as far as temperature goes. The only time that was different was at the end of March when that warm spell developed at short notice.

Apart from that, and the suggested cold unsettled spell just after Easter when low pressure to our near North with cold air wrapped in its circulation was expected, they have been bang on or near enough.

But i repeat....NO predictive model suite is 100% and no one has ever suggested the Anomalies are.. but please, anyone, if you can produce evidence of a more accurate predictive tool for the 6-14 day timeframe, please feel free to share! Im very happy to use them and are very happy with their general accuracy rate, i wouldnt blog to over 4k people a day without a high degree of accuracy.

I would also suggest, listen the the voice of experience and knowledge, i did.

 

We usually agree but we will have to agree to disagree here- I enjoy your posts so please don't take this the wrong way. I think Mr Frost hit the nail on the head in his analysis of the posts about the anomalies- I can't see a consistent pattern in what you've been posting about them over the past couple of weeks- there do seem to have been contradictions and flip flopping from them.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Irishman in Yorkshire said:

The 30 year average high in Sheffield is 12.3C and the low 4.1C (and the low is ameliorated by our urban location) There’s absolutely nothing abnormal about the range of temperatures we’ve been getting in many locations this month. More frost than we’ve grown used to, but strong April sun soon takes edge off the chill and April frosts are not rare in UK/Ireland. Expectations of April weather are well off the mark tbh

It's the constant 3-4 degrees below average that has been so depressing. I don't mind a mix but the last time the temperature was just 2c above average was Easter Sunday, that's one day above average. I have been waiting for this weekend for 3 weeks, and again this weekend will be bang average.  We should have had a few days of 16-20C in April by now just because of variation around the mean. So it is you with expectations wide of the mark. Weeks of maxima being below double figures is not normal for April.