Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Zak M]

Oh yes, oh yes, OH YES!!!

ECM mean looking brilliant @240. Just a shame that it's ten days away and will chop and change.

[Frosty.]

There’s some nice charts on the Gfs 0z operational, especially next week following an unsettled blip when we see a surge of high pressure from the Azores ️ , also, daytime temps next week look higher generally than this week with mid / perhaps even upper teens Celsius at times, especially later next week,...and for those worrying about it becoming too dry?, this run has a nice surprise near the end!... ? so, something a bit more spring-like...BUT..there’s also quite a few cold nights with slight frosts so that’s one element of winter we can’t shake off just yet...anyhoo, I’ve talked mostly about next week..but the rest of this week looks decent, just a few showers dotted around but a good deal of fine weather and temperatures creeping up  towards average, away from eastern counties bordering the North Sea...anyhoo I’ve waffled on for long enough..essentially it’s a predominantly settled outlook with high pressure in the ascendancy for the most part!  

[mb018538]

The desert like conditions showing no signs of abating for pretty much the whole country in the next 10 days as high pressure continues to dominate.

We've had 1.9mm of rain here in April, and with the very dry and low humidity airmass dominating, the ground is rock hard and has quite wide cracks in places. The official weather station at Writtle (Essex) has recorded 0.2mm in April.

Seems bonkers when a few weeks ago everywhere was sopping wet. Seems like April showers are a thing of the past these days, as it always seems to end up the driest month of the year!

[Scorcher]

That is a pretty disappointing ECM overall- okay it looks mostly dry but not great for those of us wanting something substantially warmer.

The green snot at 850 hPa basically never leaves our shores throughout the whole run- it seems that everything is scuppering something warmer at the moment.

This is actually becoming a very monotonous month now with the possibility of snow and sleet disappearing which I know is of interest to some.

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles are nae that exciting, either:

    

[Frosty.]

 

 

My last post was a bit rambling, I actually got bored with my own internal monologue would you believe!  

Anyhoo, the GEFS 0z mean is predominantly anticyclonic and the Atlantic looks very benign for most of the time...like a mill pond!  

[Tim Bland]

Temps in the south east should reach between 15c and 19c most days next week which will feel nice enough in the sun but still chilly evenings & not quite the heat wave some media are touting ! 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Zat T+192 is -- dare I say it -- nae bad:

    

[lassie23]

It snowed here at the weekend 

[Methuselah]

Well chaps, the 06Z ensembles are better -- but I wouldn't bet my house on them!

    

[PiscesStar]

13 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well chaps, the 06Z ensembles are better -- but I wouldn't bet my house on them!

    

I suspect cold holds on for the time being then 

[Britneyfan]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

I suspect cold holds on for the time being then 

No temps climb back to average through the weekend and into next week, that is pretty  confident now temps should be between 15 and 19 during next week both ECM and GFS show that 

[PiscesStar]

Like your confidence! 

[Daniel*]

42 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

No temps climb back to average through the weekend and into next week, that is pretty  confident now temps should be between 15 and 19 during next week both ECM and GFS show that 

They don’t ECM 00z was a step backwards this morning wrt next week warming trend.

[Northwest NI]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

It snowed here at the weekend 

72 hours of a difference here, Sunday 11th & Wednesday 14th

[Mike Poole]

GFS keen to build another ridge to settle over the UK after the first, T192, T240:

Maybe a result of the above average AAM state we’re in currently, CFS has it falling off after a fortnight or so, but that’s CFS for you:

We will see...good to see some settled high pressure dominated weather get a stronghold on the weather in the UK now, even if at the moment it is a bit cold!

Edited April 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[minus10]

Although high pressure dominated ,not the most inspiring 12z gfs if you are looking for warmth. The greens of the 850s never really leave with a colder push again towards the FI latter stages

Some occasional rain as well, particularly around 20th which would be welcome down here.

In the sun as now it will feel quite pleasant with maybe mid to high teens in sheltered areas. The warm up act is not doing its job of warming us up for summer....yet......

Edited April 14, 2021 by minus10

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, stronger surge of high pressure towards the UK than either the GFS or UKMO:

Promising run at this stage.

[Northwest NI]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, stronger surge of high pressure towards the UK than either the GFS or UKMO:

Promising run at this stage.

Good to see yellow colours edging into Ireland and then progressing East...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Northwest NI said:

Good to see yellow colours edging into Ireland and then progressing East...

hopefully the GFS is wrong here #teameuros

[Mike Poole]

 

ECM T240:

I think there is high confidence in this outcome, if you look at the ECM clusters 0z there is only one, out to T240 you have UK high.  This looks like high confidence in a slow moving pattern, rather than ‘we just don’t know’ which is often the case with just one cluster in the winter.  

[Scorcher]

The ECM is still not great in my view- we just can't shake off this nagging cold air. It's not going to happen but I'd rather a huge Atlantic storm was being shown heading towards us to just shake up the whole pattern. We're not going to do much better than the mid teens at all if this run comes off.

The incredibly quiet Atlantic just doesn't help at this time of year- it's hard to get rid of these sorts of patterns when they establish in April. Obviously you can also get lucky as we did last year when a warmer pattern establishes itself.

[Northwest NI]

8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM is still not great in my view- we just can't shake off this nagging cold air. It's not going to happen but I'd rather a huge Atlantic storm was being shown heading towards us to just shake up the whole pattern. We're not going to do much better than the mid teens at all if this run comes off.

The incredibly quiet Atlantic just doesn't help at this time of year- it's hard to get rid of these sorts of patterns when they establish in April. Obviously you can also get lucky as we did last year when a warmer pattern establishes itself.

Be careful what you wish for. This benign unspectacular weather suits me fine for now. It’s only mid April.

[damianslaw]

Entering second half of April, when the atlantic traditionally settles into its deep sleep state, stirring slightly through May and awakening in June... 

Models continue to show a blocked set up, something slightly more unsettled in the north west by the end of the week into next week, before high pressure comes back on the scene and once again moving into a position that probably fails to deliver anything appreciably warm.. 

Not very exciting!

[Frosty.]

Just a reminder, if one were needed?..that winter could bite back in late April, on the cusp of May according to the GEFS 12z perturbation 4...and it it certainly did in late April 1981 when parts of the u k had over a foot deep of level snow with deep drifts...just saying!..we ain’t out of the woods yet! ️